Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 290846
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
446 am EDT Mon may 29 2017
..hot with a moderate rip current risk this Memorial Day...
..Rain and storm chances gradually increase this week...
Today...surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf will allow for
light northwest flow this morning with the Atlantic high pressure ridge
strengthening into late today. The East Coast sea breeze will
develop along the coast in the early afternoon and push toward the
interior in the late afternoon hours. Precipitable water values in the morning
from 1.2 to 1.3 inches should gradually nudge higher toward 1.5
inches as low level southeasterlies advect slightly higher moisture
levels across southern sections by late afternoon and into the
interior by this evening. For now will keep daytime period dry with
mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the mid 90s for
the interior and inland portions of the coastal counties and lower
90s near the East Coast. A slight east swell will combine with lower
than normal low tides to produce a moderate risk of rip currents at
east central Florida beaches.
Tonight...some of the short range high resolution model guidance and
00z GFS indicates enough moisture return below 700 mb to support a low
shower chance along the inland moving East Coast sea breeze boundary
across the srn interior during the evening hours. Substantial mid
level dry air will limit depth of convection so will keep convection
as a low shower chance at this time. Skies will be mostly clear to
partly cloudy past late evening with lows mainly from 70-75 degrees.
Tue...high pressure ridge aloft will exit to the east reducing the
subsidence/suppression that has capped the atmosphere of late. Low
level ridge axis will slowly return northward from South Florida
and there will be some increase in moisture. Forecast model
soundings show residual dry air in the mid levels will limit
rain/storm chances until there is a sea breeze collision late in
the day over the interior. Then NE steering flow should bring some
of the activity back across the East Coast in the evening. So
have drawn 20 percent pop for the daytime and showed higher (30
percent) pops for the evening across most of the area. Still
expecting high (cirrostratus) clouds to filter the sunshine from
time to time during the day but it will still be hot with highs
near 90 coast and mid 90s interior.
Wed-sun...the subtropical ridge axis will become established in
its typical formation across the western Atlc and north central
Florida. Moisture will continue to gradually increase which should
produce scattered afternoon and evening lightning storms focused
across the interior. Rain chances are forecast to increase from
30-40 percent Wed across the interior to 50-60 percent Fri-sun,
with lower rain chances along the Treasure Coast where there will
be less chance for storms to push back to the coast. The increase
in cloud cover and rain chances will bring high temps back to
seasonable levels in the upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland.
some MVFR ground fog may develop from kfpr-kvrb early this morning
but should not be a significant visibility reduction. Patchy MVFR/IFR
cigs will affect terminals mainly from mlb northward through 13z.
Otherwise expect VFR flying weather today at area terminals.
today...northwest winds up to 10 knots this morning will weaken and become
onshore across the near shore waters with the afternoon sea breeze
development in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A dry day is
Tonight...southeast winds to 10-15 knots in the evening will veer to the SW
overnight. Seas around 2 ft and up to 2-3 ft well offshore. Dry
weather is expected.
Tue-Fri...high pressure ridge axis will slowly migrate northward
across the area into the work week. S/southeast flow will generally range
from 10-15 knots, with seas 2-3 ft. Scattered storms will return
to the forecast beginning Tue evening, pushing offshore onto the
nearshore waters mainly north of Sebastian Inlet.
today...min rhs will drop to 33-36 percent across the interior but
duration criteria will likely not be reached. The East Coast sea
breeze developing in the afternoon will move inland through the late
afternoon hours raising relative humidity values with its passage.
Tue-Thu...mid level ridge will continue east into the Atlantic and
assocd subsidence will weaken and moisture will gradually increase so
do not expect critical relative humidity values. But the concern will shift to
isolated to scattered lightning storms igniting brush fires.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 92 72 92 71 / 0 10 20 30
mco 96 73 96 73 / 0 10 20 30
mlb 91 73 91 74 / 0 10 10 30
vrb 92 73 91 73 / 0 10 10 30
Lee 95 74 95 73 / 0 10 20 30
sfb 96 74 95 73 / 0 10 20 30
orl 96 74 96 74 / 0 10 20 30
fpr 91 71 92 73 / 0 10 10 30