Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 271934
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
334 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight-Tue...fair weather as a surface high pressure ridge to our
north slides into central Florida and weakens. Skies will become
clear tonight except for a little cirrus, and winds will go calm.
Therefore, will keep mention of patchy fog late. Low temps tonight
will be mostly in the upper 50s, but some mid 50s should occur in
the south interior. Most of the barrier islands will again stay
more mild in the 60s. Max temps Tue will be in the lower 80s along
the coast and mid 80s inland.
Tue night-Wed night...ridge aloft of Florida as low-level ridge axis
drops south from northern County Warning Area late Tue/early Wed to central
portion of the area Wed night. This pattern will ensure warm/dry
wx prevails into at least mid week. Min temps mid/upper 50s
north/northeast of Lake Okeechobee and low/mid 60 elswhere, with
Max temps in the lower/mid 80s coast and mid/upper 80s interior,
some 5-10 degrees above climo, but not approaching records values.
Thu-sun...an intense upper cyclone over the central Continental U.S. Early in
the period will track eastward and off of the mid Atlc coast Sat
afternoon. This will push a weak surface trough across the early
Sat, preceded by a broken band of showers/isolated storms which
should weaken in coverage/intensity upon approach to cwa, all in
association with some energy aloft ahead of the large upper
cyclone to the north. Some residual moisture lingering around and
especially south of kmco may allow for additional precipitation
ahead/along approaching trough Sat across S half of County Warning Area. Much
drier/stable air moves back into the area Sat night/sun.
Temperatures will remain well above normal with l-m80s along the
coast and u80s inland for highs and lows mainly in the 60s
VFR conditions prevail this afternoon/evening. East winds 5-10kt
with ceilings at or above fl050 clearing with sea breeze mvmt.
Localized MVFR vsbys due to patchy fog late tonight.
tonight-Tue...high pressure ridge extending from offshore the
Carolina coast to North Florida will settle into the waters while
weakening. This will cause east flow to diminish below 10 knots
tonight, then gradient winds will be light Tue with a 5-10 knot
sea breeze. The wave watch model has been running a little high
on seas, so have trimmed them back closer to what available buoy
data shows. Seas far offshore may still be near 6 feet, but with
winds of only 10 knots, will not include any cautionary
Tue night-Sat...weak high pressure ridging will reside over the
coastal waters Tue-Wed, then slide further east/south ahead of an
approaching weak upper disturbance that will move into the area
Fri/Sat. Generally light/variable winds into Thu with a sea
breeze developing each afternoon along the coast. Gradually
increasing S winds Thu night into Fri offshore as the pressure
gradient tightens, becoming west and diminishing to below 10 kt by
Seas through late Thu...2-3 ft near shore and across the southern
waters and 3-5 ft offshore, with east swell continuing. Seas will
again begin to build ahead of the approaching system as winds
increase Thu overnight-Fri night.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 80 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 10
mco 84 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
mlb 80 59 81 62 / 10 0 0 0
vrb 80 59 81 60 / 10 0 0 0
Lee 84 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 10
sfb 83 59 85 62 / 0 0 0 10
orl 83 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
fpr 80 57 82 59 / 20 0 0 0