Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 251351
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
950 am EDT sun Jun 25 2017
Low level ridge axis across the central Florida Peninsula this morning.
The central Florida morning soundings have moistened a bit during
the past 24 hours, with precipitable water values up to 1.88" at
Tampa and 1.69" at Cape Canaveral. Some cooling in the mid levels as
well, with 700 mb temps at the cape 2c cooler at 7.8c this morning.
Temps at 500 mb have also cooled from -4.3c Sat morning to -5.7c
this morning, which is still on the warm side but not as supressing.
Mid level deck of clouds slowing down heating a little across the
northern sections, but will continue to erode through the late
morning, with temperatures quickly climbing as it does.
Latest hrrr runs suggest a few cells forming along the East Coast
seabreeze by midday into early afternoon and could be a few cells
along differential heating boundary from persistent cloud deck, but
the highest storm coverage not expected to occur until the late
afternoon and early evening over the interior as the east and West
Coast boundaries collide. Areas near and to the northwest of I-4 corridor
expected to have the highest coverage. Will keep these areas in
likely Cat (60 pops). Pops will gradually taper down heading south
and east, with position of ridge axis allowing the earliest and
farthest westward push of the East Coast boundary.
Main concern with storms will be lightning strikes and locally heavy
rains again along the boundary collisions, as occurred on Saturday,
with slow storm motion toward the north-northeast at 5-10 mph. Scattered showers
and storms again expected to again linger well past sunset.
Aviation...VFR cigs with persistent mid level deck roughly
kism-ktix northward gradually diminishing through late morning. A
few rain showers/thunderstorms and rain starting to form along easet coast sea breeze after
15z. As sea breeze drifts inland, so will the higher rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
chances. Highest storm coverage occurring near and north of I-4,
late afternoon into eveningo, so 22z-02z time frame focused on in
Marine...(previous)today...low level ridge axis lies across central
Florida and the adjacent Atlc waters resulting in a light southerly flow
around 10 knots. A southeast sea breeze of 10-15 knots will develop near
the coast this afternoon. Seas 2 feet except up to 3 feet offshore.
There will be a chance for storms to approach the Volusia coast late
in the day. &&