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fxus62 kmlb 222017 
afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
317 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Discussion...
tonight and Thursday...an elongated sfc low located along the Florida
Gulf CST will pivot onshore overnight and exit the Florida East Coast
early Thu. A cold pool aloft will combine with sfc convergence
to produce showers and a few storms into the night time hours
over the area. Mixing of environmental air as well as the cooler
temps aloft has the potential to produce some gusty conditions as
well as small hail within any stronger storms which develop. The
main feature will be continued accumulating rains over areas which
earlier experiences higher rain amounts during today. Rain chcs
will remain quite high this evening and slowly begin to taper
overnight as the low relocates to the East Coast.

Sct to numerous morning showers, most notably along the coastal
counties will diminish in coverage Thu with windy conditions along
the coast in strong onshore gradient winds on the north side of the
departing sfc low north of Cape Canaveral. A gale watch was posted
mainly for coastal Volusia co. Thu morning through midday with
significantly lower winds forecast south of this departing low
over the space and Treasure csts. Rain will relocate to the marine
area Thu evening.

Friday-Wednesday...(prev disc) upstream mid level trough will
kick the low steadily northeast away from the northern Bahamas on
Fri, with dry conditions occurring in the wake of the system. A
fast-moving cool front is shown sweeping through the area Sat
night. The models continue to look dry with this frontal passage.
Dry weather is also indicated into early-mid next week as a high
pressure ridge builds in behind the front and becomes elongated
over the area.

Temps will be above normal Fri-Sat. The latest GFS guidance
continues to show a little cooler than normal temps on Sunday.
Temps will then moderate to near or a little above normal Monday
as high pressure shifts offshore and winds veer easterly. High
temps look to reach 80 or above Tue-Wed with mid 80s possible
inland, as the flow veers to a southeast-south direction.

&&

Aviation...
prevailing MVFR with areas of IFR will continue through 23/01z.
Heavier showers and sct storms at all sites will bring some brief IFR
conds with sfc wind g25-30kt and cigs falling to near FL 010 and
vsby 1-2sm in showers. After 23/01z the likelihood of sct lower
clouds alng with brief IFR conds in bkn-ovc 012-020 possible as low
pressure tracks over the state.

&&

Marine...
tonight and Thu...Small Craft Advisory conditions in wind and seas over the waters
with notable onshore gradient winds developing in the pre-dawn
hours Thu north of Cape Canaveral frequent gusts to gale force
possible through in the gale watch area around midday Thu.
Headlines will be trimmed back to north of Sebastian Inlet early
Thu afternoon as the low draws away from the immediate area.

Friday...conditions still look poor to hazardous over most areas
early Fri as the surface low pulls away, with breezy northeast
winds and a lingering swell. Depending on the evolution of this
low pressure system, the Small Craft Advisory may need to be
extended into Fri and may have to be expanded into the southern
waters as northeast swells build south.

Saturday-Sunday...
winds will become west/northwest 10 knots or less on Sat but
northeast swells are still shown lingering, so conditions might be
rough near inlets during the outgoing tide. A cold front will
sweep through Sat night and bring a brief northerly wind surge
that lasts into Sunday. Poor boating conditions are likely Sunday
morning and they will probably be hazardous in the Gulf Stream.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 64 76 66 80 / 80 60 20 10
mco 61 79 64 83 / 70 50 10 10
mlb 61 76 67 80 / 80 60 20 10
vrb 59 78 66 81 / 80 50 20 10
Lee 61 79 62 82 / 70 50 10 0
sfb 61 78 64 81 / 70 50 20 10
orl 61 78 65 82 / 70 50 10 10
fpr 59 77 64 81 / 80 50 20 10

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...gale watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Thursday for Flagler Beach
to Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 am EST Friday for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Friday for Volusia-Brevard
County line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
County line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

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