Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
458 am EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
..boating conditions will become hazardous mid to late week...
Today/tonight...high pressure extending across the southeast U.S.
Will weaken today, producing a gentle to moderate northeast breeze
into the afternoon. Highs are forecast to be a degree or two
warmer today, but still slightly below normal with values ranging
from the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Skies will range from
mostly sunny across northern portions of east central Florida to
partly to mostly cloudy at times south of Orlando where greater
coverage of onshore moving marine stratocu will exist. Decreasing
clouds, weakening winds overnight, and lingering drier air will
allow lows to fall back into the 50s over much of the interior and
Volusia coast, while along coastal sections south of the cape min
temps will be slightly warmer in the low to mid 60s.
Tue-sun...reinforcing high pressure over the Great Lakes will
build south and east which will push a wind surge into the area
late on Tuesday, peaking Wed and Wed night with increasing east/NE
flow. Windy conditions 20-25 mph expected along the coast mid week
with additional beach erosion possible during the high tide
cycles. Rain chances remain too low to mention Tue but isolated
showers should cross the coast off the Atlantic Tue night into
late week, focused along the Treasure Coast.
Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) show deeper moisture lifting north from the
Caribbean reaching the Bahamas and Florida Straits/Keys Fri-Sat.
But mid level troughing over the eastern Continental U.S. And assocd northwest flow
along with weak frontal boundaries pushing into Florida should keep the
deepest moisture at Bay to our south. So will continue to keep
thunder out of the forecast with only isolated rain chances into
the weekend, primarily in the form of Atlantic showers.
High temperatures will be near seasonable in the lower 80s but
low temperatures will be above normal in the mid to upper 60s,
with lower 70s along the coast.
Aviation...VFR conds expected. Onshore moving marine stratocu will
continue to generate broken cigs at times around 4-5kft, mainly from
today/tonight...high pressure extending eastward across the
southeast U.S. Will weaken today with east/NE winds less than 15
knots. Seas will reside around 2-3 feet.
Tue-Fri...pressure gradient will begin to tighten on Tue with east/NE
winds increasing near 15 knots, 15-20 knots across the southern
waters late in the day. A stronger wind surge from building high
pressure to the north will increase winds Wed to 20 knots, 20-25
knots across the south. So small craft advisories will be needed.
Seas will build to 5 ft across the south on Tue afternoon,
reaching 9 ft in the Gulf Stream Wed night. On Fri...pressure
gradient should relax slightly across the northern waters as weak
ridge axis settles south supporting 10-15 knots but tighter
gradient across the southern waters should support close to 20
knots there. So seas will be slow to subside and poor to hazardous
boating conditions will result.
Fire weather...lingering dry airmass will produce min relative humidity values
near 40 percent near and northwest of I-4 this afternoon.
Increasing onshore flow will then gradually moisten the lower
levels, with relative humidity values staying above 40 percent Tuesday and 50
percent from Wednesday Onward. It will remain rain-free through
Tuesday with a slight chance for showers returning to the area
from mid to late week with an increase in east/NE winds.
the St. Johns River at Astor (2.60ft) is expected to remain above
action stage (2.50ft) through Wednesday or Thursday, then drop
below action stage.
At Geneva/above Lake Harney, the St. Johns River (6.81ft) will also
fall very slowly, and is forecast to remain above action stage
(6.50ft) through Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 77 56 81 68 / 0 10 10 10
mco 80 59 83 66 / 0 10 10 0
mlb 80 63 82 71 / 0 10 10 20
vrb 80 63 82 71 / 0 0 10 20
Lee 80 58 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
sfb 80 58 83 66 / 0 10 10 10
orl 80 61 82 66 / 0 10 10 0
fpr 80 63 82 70 / 10 0 10 20