Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 291320
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
920 am EDT Mon may 29 2017
..hotter and more humid today...
Today-evening...clearly, low level dew points early this morning
were much higher, low-mid 70s. Ridge aloft was still producing
subsidence and a capping inversion. The low level moistening is a
good start though and morning soundings showed precipitable water
had risen between 1.2 and 1.3 inches. Forecast soundings show
values rising to near 1.6 inches late in the day. Deep convection is
not expected during the afternoon due to the lingering cap. A
collision of the east and West Coast sea breeze boundaries may bring
a slight chance for showers or storms this evening. The GFS and
hrrr have been showing a little precip near the lower Kissimmee
river. This is already in our forecast and do not plan to change
The higher dew points and Max temps in the lower-mid 90s will
produce heat indices around 100 this afternoon in some areas.
Aviation...VFR today. Local MVFR stratus possible early Tuesday
today...continued good boating conditions. West northwest winds
near 10 knots in the morning will become onshore along the coast by
early afternoon and across all of the waters by late afternoon. The
sea breeze acceleration right along the coast may reach near 15
knots, but otherwise speeds will be around 10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
today...min relative humidity values may reach to around 35 percent near The Spine
of the peninsula. Northwest-west winds will be lighter than
yesterday. This will allow the East Coast sea breeze to push inland
faster, reaching the interior late in the day just before sunset.
Passage of the sea breeze may briefly produce winds 10-15 mph.