Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 180732
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
332 am EDT Wed Oct 18 2017
today and tonight...an East Coast trough, which is a remnant of
an early week frontal boundary continues to bring unsettled
conditions including a source of local convergence. Scattered to
numerous showers along and north of the trough will continue to
pivot onshore during the day. Higher rain totals are generally
expected along the Atlc coast and the expectations are that the
trough will slowly sink swd during the day while becoming less
defined. The forecast features at least sct shower coverage
area wide with a little more numerous coverage into early
afternoon along the coast. There is a lesser but mentionable chc
of an isolated storm or two as well. The Flood Watch for North Brevard
and coastal Volusia will be allowed to expire at 4am.
Considerable cloud cover will start to show more breaks later in
the day, in line with the decreasing rain chcs, especially inland
toward late afternoon then reducing along the coast as well by
tonight as onshore winds start to diminish. Shower chcs fall to
sct areawide after nightfall with again slightly better chcs
remaining along the coastal co's. Highs will make it into the m80s
over most of the area with lows tonight in the M-u70s.
Thu-Sat...onshore flow persists into the upcoming weekend as high
pressure remains centered near the mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a
strengthening ridge aloft will produce subsidence and drying aloft,
with moisture levels lowering in response. Will continue to show a
steady downward trend in pops from Thursday (~40%) to Saturday (20-
30%) as breezy onshore flows carries some low-topped, brief showers
toward the coast each day. Beach conditions will remain hazardous
for swimmers with strong rip currents and rough surf expected.
Sun-Tue...mean-layer ridging shifts into the Atlantic as a sharp
trough and its associated surface front moves through the deep
south. Low-level winds veer southerly, drawing deeper moisture back
into the region, with a corresponding increase in pops expected.
Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show the front moving swiftly through the
area by the middle of next week, though there still remains some
difference in timing. Regardless, an increase in available moisture
and instability portend higher pops and a renewed chance for
isolated thunderstorms. Temps look to climb above normal ahead of
the front, mid-upper 80s expected.&&
during much of the day intermixed VFR to MVFR conds wl be expected
with locally reduced cig and vsby conditions to briefly IFR ascd
with heavier showers and surface wind g25-30kt, esp along the coastal
routes this morning into afternoon. Outside of showers primarily
VFR conds wl exist with cigs abv fl035.
today and tonight...winds and seas remain in advisory state
areawide through at least 4 am on Thursday. The combination of
winds at least 15 to 20 kt and sig wave heights of 7 to 10 ft
today will show a reduction trend overnight especially over the
nearshore waters within 15 to 20 miles of the coast.
Thu-sun...persistent period of onshore flow will continue for late
week and into the upcoming weekend making conditions hazardous for
small craft operation. Seas 5-7 feet become common with seas
occasionally up to 8 feet offshore. Winds easterly increasing to
near 20 knots into the weekend.
the middle and upper Saint Johns River basin remains in flood with
only a slight decrease in river levels forecast over the next
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 81 71 82 74 / 60 30 40 20
mco 85 71 84 71 / 50 20 30 10
mlb 84 74 84 76 / 70 40 40 20
vrb 84 74 83 76 / 70 40 40 30
Lee 85 68 85 70 / 40 20 30 10
sfb 84 70 84 71 / 50 30 30 10
orl 85 71 84 71 / 50 30 30 10
fpr 84 73 83 75 / 70 40 40 30
Florida...Flood Watch expires at 4 am EDT this morning for coastal
Volusia County-northern Brevard County.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach
to Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line
to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Thursday for Sebastian Inlet
to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet