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afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
329 PM EDT sun Apr 23 2017

Discussion...
tonight...weak low to mid level wave over South Florida continues to
lift northeast bringing a slow end to the persistent rain over
portions of the Treasure Coast. Shield of pcpn has set down a NE-
SW boundary that has moved north into central sections of the County Warning Area.
This feature has provided the focus needed for developing some
shra despite the loss of heating from cloud cover. Expect this
boundary along with a slowly evolving West Coast breeze to provide
addtnl shower and isold thunderstorm coverage into the early
evening. Some chance of patchy fog late over the interior where
rainfall occurs, but the more moist ground over the southeast
sections will also see clouds linger, so have opted not to include
any at this time.

Monday...airmass dries before actual cold front swings through the
area during the day on Monday. Still enough moisture in place for
a narrow band of shra in proximity to enhanced low level
convergence near time of frontal passage. Nearly followed guidance Max
temps, but made adjustments in south to what seemed to high a
values with cloud cover before front moves through.

Mon night-Tue night...a closed upper low near the Georgia/SC coast late
Mon will lift northward to the mid Atlantic coast Tue night as a
surface low east of the Carolinas is captured by the upper flow and
retrogrades/deepens inland from the NC coast. Increased drying will
spread across County Warning Area during the period within westerly flow region to
the south of the surface low. Cooler air will work into the area Mon
night with steady clearing as temps drop into the u50s to l60s.
Mostly sunny skies Tue with a westerly breeze and Max temps
rebounding well into the 80s. Cool again Tue night, with mins range
from the mid 50s north of Lake Okeechobee and inland from the
Treasure Coast to the lower/mid 60s farther North/East.

Mid week through next weekend...a mostly dry and warm forecast will
continue through next weekend as high pressure initially anchored
over the western Atlantic Basin dominates the local wx. Development
of onshore flow from the Atlantic by next Thu-Fri will help temper
low relative humidity conditions, however moisture will remain too low for notable
chances of rainfall through the end of the week, and only a slight
chance for an afternoon shower far inland Sat/sun afternoons due to
sea breeze convergence. Max temps mid/upper 80s Wed, except near 80
along coast north of the cape, them mostly near 90 to lower 90s
inland and mid 80s coast through Sunday. Mins mostly in the 60s Thu
morning, then upper 60s inland to lower 70s coast through Sunday
morning.

&&

Aviation...
mainly MVFR conditions in pcpn shield over southern locations
will come to an end this evening. Have kept the low cigs and fog
out of any of taf locations, but in areas over the interior that
get heavier pcpn this evening, may need updated lower cigs and
vsbys.

&&

Marine...
surface wave over the southeast will shift out to sea this
evening. A cold front will move across the waters during the first
half of Monday shifting winds to west and northwest and increasing
speeds to 15 kts, seas 3 feet increasing to 5 feet late Monday.

Mon night-Tue night...brief period of gusty west winds near Small Craft Advisory
levels offshore in the wake of a departing low pressure area will
create brief period of higher sea state across offshore waters with
seas building to 5-7 feet Mon night and 4-5 feet nearshore. Winds
and seas will diminish Tue as system draws away from the area and
high pressure re-establishes over the western Atlantic.

Mid-late week...genearlly favorable marine conditions during the
period with winds 10 to 15 knots or less...with offshore component
through Wednesday morning, becoming southerly through late week.
Seas around 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 3 to 4 feet offshore.

&&

Fire weather...
Tue-Thu...warm/dry airmass in wake of departing system will result
in min relative humidity 35-40 percent areawide Tue afternoon and interior regions
Wed/Thu. West winds may gust near 20 knots Tue afternoon, then light
S/SW winds Wed/Thu afternoons.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 66 80 58 84 / 30 20 0 0
mco 67 81 60 85 / 20 20 0 0
mlb 67 84 58 85 / 30 20 0 0
vrb 66 84 60 85 / 20 20 0 0
Lee 68 79 60 83 / 20 20 0 0
sfb 66 82 59 85 / 20 20 0 0
orl 69 80 61 84 / 20 20 0 0
fpr 67 84 59 85 / 20 20 0 0

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&

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