Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmkx 232253
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
553 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. A mid level
shortwave pushing into the area Saturday afternoon could bring
some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from about
mid afternoon into the early evening.
Previous discussion... (issued 332 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017)
Tonight and Saturday...forecast confidence is high:
Finally seeing a few showers upstream with the arrival a weak wave
and a cooler airmass. Left some small shower chances in mainly the
northwest half of the forecast area for late afternoon and early
evening. Dry weather is then expected late evening into Saturday
Should see another wave push through Saturday, bringing more
shower chances in the afternoon into evening. Shower coverage
looks very isolated through mid-afternoon, with higher coverage
moving in from the west by late afternoon with the better forcing.
Showers should diminish as they move eastward during the early
evening hours and daytime heating is lost.
Cooler temps are expected tomorrow, with highs in the upper 60s to
Sunday through Tuesday...forecast confidence is high:
More shortwaves will bring mainly afternoon shower and isolated
storm chances Sunday and Monday. Below normal temps will continue
for the first two days of the week.
Southerly low level flow will return Tuesday in advance of
approaching low pressure, bringing temps back into the 70s, just a
couple/few degrees shy of normal values. Looks like a pleasant day
with mostly sunny skies expected.
Wednesday through Friday...forecast confidence is medium:
The pattern will turn more active for the second half of the week.
Multiple rounds of showers and storms seem likely, with deeper
moisture and more instability returning to the region. Right now,
it looks like the best chance for storms will be later Wednesday
into early Thursday and again Thursday night into Friday. There
are timing/placement differences among models with the low
pressure systems progged to move through, so plenty of time for
the finer details to change. Should see temps around normal for
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Weak
shortwaves late this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon will
bring sct to bkn 4-5 kft cumulus and isolated showers. A rumble of
thunder is not out the question.
Gusts to 25 knots still looks reasonable into early evening north
of Port Washington, so kept the advisory going. Could see a gust
or two to 25 knots south of there, but generally gusts there will
remain up to 20 knots.
Winds will remain persistently west to northwest at 10-20 knots
the next couple days, but should be just below advisory levels.
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for lmz643.