Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmkx 281414
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
914 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017
overcast skies in far southeast WI will become more scattered
later this morning. Scattered cumulus will develop across the rest
of southern WI this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s.
no change to the forecast. A Small Craft Advisory continues into
tonight for all of the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Brisk
northeast winds are expected today. Due to the persistent flow,
waves of 4 to 6 feet are expected, highest toward Wind Point and
Winthrop Harbor Illinois. These waves will gradually subside from
north to south across the waters tonight.
Previous discussion... (issued 756 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017)
MVFR cigs off Lake Michigan should mix out mid morning.
Gusty northeast winds will persist into Friday evening near Lake
Michigan. Inland areas will see light northeast winds.
More diurnal cumulus clouds should develop inland by afternoon.
Previous discussion... (issued 243 am CDT Fri Jul 28 2017)
Today and tonight...forecast confidence is high...
The upper level shortwave over the upper Great Lakes, with a
trough axis into southeast Wisconsin, will move off to the
southeast this morning. Some mid level clouds associated with
this, along with a diminishing area of light showers.
Forecast soundings show scattered fair weather cumulus will likely
form late this morning and afternoon, due to enough low level
moisture in the northeast flow off the Great Lakes.
Surface high pressure centered over Lake Superior will build
farther south into Wisconsin tonight. The northeast flow across
Lake Michigan will diminish somewhat late as the center of the
high builds in.
Saturday through Tuesday...forecast confidence is high:
High pressure will control the weather pattern for the weekend
and early next week. Expect plenty of sunshine to go along with
near normal temperatures.
Wednesday and Thursday...forecast confidence is medium to high:
Precipitable water values increase by Wednesday ahead of an
approaching wave. Could see some shower/storm activity mid-week as
Temps should remain right around normal values mid-week.
Northeast winds will persist into Friday evening near Lake
Michigan. These winds will become gusty again by the late morning
or around midday, lingering into the afternoon. Inland areas will
see light northeast winds overnight into Friday evening.
A few rain showers to the north may slide into northern portions
of the area overnight, with some uncertainty as to how far south
they may move. For now, added some middle level clouds with the
light showers into northern portions of the area. More diurnal
cumulus clouds should develop inland by Friday afternoon.
Small Craft Advisory continues into tonight for all of the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. A modest pressure gradient
will continue to bring rather brisk northeast winds today. Due to
the persistent flow, waves of 4 to 6 feet are expected, highest
toward Wind Point and Winthrop Harbor Illinois. These waves will
gradually subside from north to south across the waters tonight.
A beach hazards statement remains in effect into this evening for
the beaches from Sheboygan County south through Kenosha County.
Gusty northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph, and elevated waves of 4 to
6 feet, will combine to bring a high swim risk to all Lake
Michigan beaches. This implies that life threatening waves and
currents are expected. Stay out of the water, and stay away from
dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls. Highest waves expected
south toward Kenosha.
WI...beach hazards statement through this evening for wiz052-060-066-
Lm...Small Craft Advisory untturday for lmz645-646.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for lmz643-644.