Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmkx 292029
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017
Tonight and Tuesday...forecast confidence is high:
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will slide into the
area mid to late afternoon, winding down early this evening.
Clouds will linger into the evening, with some clearing expected
Tomorrow will be very similar to today as another wave moves
through. Expect increasing clouds, with another round of afternoon
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will be breezy
again as well, though probably a tad less than today. Temps
tomorrow will be fairly similar, maybe a couple degrees cooler
Wednesday... forecast confidence is high.
The trough with that upper low will shift off to the east and
southern WI will have dry weather with plenty of sunshine and
lighter west winds on Wednesday.
Thursday through Friday... forecast confidence is medium.
A warm front will lift northeast into southern WI Thursday
afternoon and evening. This will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms all the way through Friday as the front stalls over
our area. The setup looks favorable for decent instability, so
this will be the time period to watch for severe storm potential.
The front should sag south on Friday, although the 12z European model (ecmwf) keeps
it stalled over southern WI. Lighter winds should allow for a
lake breeze. Then northeast winds are expected to rush down the
lake Friday night.
Saturday through Monday... forecast confidence is low.
There are several different scenarios for how the weather will
play out this coming weekend. A chance of showers and maybe some
thunderstorms in the forecast seems reasonable.
Still expecting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
move in this afternoon, lingering into early evening as a wave
moves through. Ceilings will remain VFR. Breezy winds will ease
late afternoon into the evening hours.
Clouds will decrease overnight, with a very similar setup expected
on Tuesday. Breezy winds, increasing VFR clouds, and an afternoon
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur once
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into early evening when
gusty west winds will settle down. Could see gusts to near 25
knots on Tuesday again and may need another advisory. Gusts to
around 20 knots are likely Wednesday, staying just under advisory
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for lmz643>646.