Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmkx 192033 cca
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
233 PM CST sun Nov 19 2017
Short term...tonight and tomorrow...high forecast confidence
Filtered sunshine is occurring across most of the region this
afternoon, with afternoon high temperatures topping out around the
freezing mark. Variable high clouds will remain in place through
most of tonight, with temperatures only falling a few degrees into
the upper 20s or low 30s. Surface winds will become more
southwesterly tonight, remaining breezing through the overnight
Monday looks to be a very pleasant day across the region, with
southwesterly breezes helping to boost temperatures well into the
40s, with a few spots across southwestern Wisconsin perhaps
touching 50 degrees.
Long term...Monday night through next Saturday...medium to high
A relatively strong but generally dry cold front will pass
through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will
be a blustery day, with gusts between 25 and 30 miles per hour common.
Temperatures will fall into the upper teens and low 20s Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning as high pressure settles across the
Central Plains. Wednesday, Thanksgiving day and Friday look to be
rather nice, with dry weather looking likely with seasonable
The next system of consequence looks to move into the region
Friday night into next weekend, as an upper level trough dives
southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. This will be the
region's next good chance for precipitation, though at this time
it looks like the bulk of the precipitation will remain to our
north and east. Cooler temperatures look probable for next weekend
behind this system, with highs back in the low to mid 30s.
Aviation(21z taf update)...
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours, with just high
clouds passing through the area. Winds will become southwesterly
this evening/tonight, continuing into Monday.
Winds will become southwesterly tonight, with speeds increasing
heading into the day on Monday. Winds will then become
northwesterly Tuesday morning behind a cold front. A Small Craft
Advisory will be in effect from mid day Monday through at least
Tuesday evening. Winds will approach gales Monday night into
Tuesday, and it is possible that the Small Craft Advisory may
eventually need to be upgraded to a Gale Warning.
Winds should finally start to subside by Wednesday morning.
Another storm system should then approach the area by next
Lm...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for