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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
347 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

a hot and humid airmass will remain over the region through
this weekend. The remnants of tropical cyclone Cindy will pass
well to the north on Saturday. A tropically enhanced cold front
will move very slowly through eastern NC Saturday and Sunday,
before pushing just south of the area Monday. The front will
meander just off the coast through Wednesday, when the front
finally clears the coast. High pressure will build in from the
west behind the front later Wednesday.


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 330 PM Thu...mid level shortwave/warm front feature will
still be lifting north after 00z though loss of diurnal heating
will see a decrease in showers through midnight...but did carry
at least a slight chance of a shower inland and across northern
areas overnight. Should see just a bit more of a breeze for
tonight, so fog should not be an issue. It will be warm and
steamy with lows mid/upr 70s eastern areas to low/mid 70s
coastal plain counties.


Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/...
as of 330 PM and windy conditions for Friday as
southwesterly flow begins to increase as remnants of Cindy
begins to pass to our west through the Ohio River valley. Don't
see much of a focus for precipitation on Friday except a weak
shortwave skirting the area before noon. Lowered pops to slight
chance through the day, but if trend continues could see
dropping pops for the afternoon. Should begin to see more breaks
in the clouds during the afternoon as well and expect highs to
reach into the lower 90s inland and mid 80s along the coast.


Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
as of 300 PM Thu...moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm
Cindy will be drawn northeast over the Carolinas through the
weekend. A strong cold front will move through the region Monday
night into Tuesday as a strong mid level trough crosses the
region. The front is forecast to move south of the region
Tuesday with high pressure building over the area mid to late
week with cooler less humid conditions expected.

Friday night through Sunday...mostly dry conditions are expected
overnight Friday through early Saturday afternoon ahead of a
tropically enhanced cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will
progress eastward into eastern NC in the afternoon, and have
high chance pops through Saturday evening. The cold front is expected
to move very slowly through the area, and will be draped over
NC both Saturday and Sunday. Have bumped up pops to likely for
areas east of US 17 for this time frame, with high chance to
the west. Localized flash flooding will be possible, as precipitable water
values are expected to be very high, 2-2.5", the warm cloud
layer will be upwards of 14,000 ft, and storm motions will be
nearly parallel the upper level flow. These factors will lead
to very efficient rain processes, and training of storms. There
is also marginal severe threat, with MUCAPE values near 2000
j/kg, and 0-6 km shear values 25-35 kts.

High temps on Saturday will be in the low 90s inland and mid to
upper 80s along the coast. High temps on Sunday will be a few
degrees lower, mostly in the low to mid 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...cold front will move off the coast early
Monday morning with just some coastal showers possible.
Scattered convection is likely to develop Monday afternoon,
mostly inland. The cold front will meander to the north on
Tuesday and bring more widespread rain back into eastern NC
through Tuesday night. Have high chance pops generally east of
US 17 for this period. High temps Monday and Tuesday will be
seasonably cool, mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...with the exception of some scattered
showers along the coast Wednesday morning, dry weather is
finally anticipated. High pressure will build in behind the cold
front and high temps will again be seasonably cool both
Wednesday and Thursday.

Low temps in the long term will be very mild and muggy Saturday
through Monday mornings, with lows in the low 70s inland, and
mid to upper 70s along the coast. Tuesday through Thursday
mornings lows will be cooler, in the low to mid 60s inland, and
upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.


Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 145 PM Thu...currently seeing VFR conditions with broken to
overcast mid and high clouds and that should continue through
the afternoon and early evening. Expect some isolated
showers/storms developing by later afternoon into early evening,
though not enough coverage or confidence to indicate more than
a vcsh mention in tafs. Fog threat tonight will be much less, as
SW breeze should preclude the fog development. Could be a
period of MVFR cigs develop late tonight and into early Friday
morning as moistening SW breeze continues. Expect MVFR to VFR
conditions to develop mid morning and diminishing
cloudiness through the remainder of the day.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 340 PM Thu...while most of the period will see VFR
conditions, a very moist unstable airmass will lead to showers
and thunderstorms, especially from late Sat into Sunday when the
best chance for periods of sub VFR conditions will occur.
Patchy late night/early morning fog will also be possible,
especially in areas that receive rainfall.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 330 PM Thu...southwest winds will be mostly 10 to 15 kt
through tonight, increasing to 15 to 20 knots on Friday as the
pressure gradient tightens between the remnants of Cindy passing
to our west and high pressure off the coast. Seas will be 2 to 4
feet overnight increasing to 3 to 5 by Friday afternoon and some
6 foot seas possibly coming in late on Friday in the outer
central and southern waters. Raised a Small Craft Advisory beginning at 23z
Friday there and for the Pamlico Sound as wind gusts will begin
to increase to around 25 knots.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 340 PM enhanced pressure gradient between strong
Atlantic high pressure to the east and the remnant low from
Tropical Storm Cindy moving NE from Louisiana toward the
Carolinas/virginias will lead to persistent SW winds around 25
kt from late Fri through Sat evening producing rough seas of 5
to 8 ft. The SW flow will diminish late Sat night ahead of a
slowly moving cold front. Winds will become quite variable
Sunday and Monday between 5 and 10 kts. Seas will subside below
6 feet early Sunday morning and will be become 2 to 4 ft through


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz095-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 7 am EDT Sunday for


near term...rsb

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