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fxus62 kmhx 201845 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
145 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

high pressure will crest over the area tonight, then move off
the coast Tuesday. A cold front will move through late Tuesday
night and off the coast Wednesday. Areas of low pressure will
move northeast across the offshore waters Thursday through
Saturday. A dry cold front will move through Sunday, bringing a
shot of much colder air.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 145 PM Mon...latest sfc analysis shows 1024mb high
pressure centered over eastern Tennessee this afternoon. The high will
continue to build westward and crest over eastern NC tonight.
Mostly clear skies and calm winds should result in good
radiational cooling conditions overnight, with temps dropping
quickly and leaned towards the colder guidance. Will issue
frost advisory for Mainland Hyde and Pamlico counties, where the
growing season has not technically ended. Overnight lows in the
low to mid 30s inland, and upper 30s to mid 40s along the


Short term /Tuesday/...
as of 145 PM Mon...high pressure will slide offshore Tue with
increasing clouds and warmer temps as low lvl flow becomes southeast to
S. Highs will be well into the 60s across much of the area,
warmest along the coast. Could see some showers along the coast
late as models show isolated activity moving off the water.


Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
as of 230 am Mon... an area of low pres will lift NE just off
the coast Tue night and depart to the NE Wed. Expect decent
coverage of showers to spread across the region Tue night and
cont likely pops most areas with good chc deep inland. The
showers will end from west to east Wed morn as the low departs with
decreasing clouds and increasing north winds. Temps will be mild Tue
night with lows mostly in the 50s. Shld reach upr 50s to mid
60s Wed before better cold air advection kicks in. Dry and cool Wed night as
high pres builds in with lows mid/upr 30s inland to mostly 40s

Low confidence for the Thu thru Sat period. Models agree
that a couple areas of low pres will lift NE off the coast
however track and timing differ. Leaned a little closer to European model (ecmwf)
with mainly dry conditions Thu and Fri with just slight pop
CST. For the late Fri night and Sat time period added a small
pop CST per European model (ecmwf) showing good moisture and quantitative precipitation forecast spreading across
with another low lifting NE ahead of approaching cold front.
Cool temps cont Thu and Fri with north/NE winds highs mostly in the
50s. On Sat will warm a bit ahead of approaching cold front with
lower 60s expected.

Strong cold front will cross Sat night with cold high pres
building in from the west sun and Mon. Highs sun will be in the 50s
and looks like mainly 40s to around 50 for Mon. Lows will
likely approach or reach freezing most inland areas Sun night.


Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 12 PM Monday...VFR conditions will dominate the taf
period as strong high pressure is in control of the regional
area. Skies will continue to be clear this afternoon, then a few
to scattered high clouds may stream through late tonight. Winds will
remain light and variable with no fog developing as dewpoint
depression is above 5 degrees. Clouds will increase tomorrow,
but remain VFR.

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 230 am Mon...showers expected to develop Tue night and
early Wed as low pres lifts NE off the coast. These showers will
likely lead to a few periods of sub VFR espcly closer to CST.
VFR should return later Wed as high pres builds in and the low
departs. Mainly VFR expected Thu and Fri with deeper moisture
and shower threat expected mainly east of taf sites.


short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 145 PM Mon...latest obs show north/northwest winds 5-10 kt with gusts
to 15 kt seas 2-4 ft. Winds and seas will continue to subside
this evening and overnight as high pressure to the west crests
over the waters. Winds generally 10 kt or less overnight with
seas subsiding to 1-3 ft. The high will shift off the coast
Tuesday, with flow becoming S/southeast 5-15 kt. Seas 1-2 ft early will
build to 2-4 ft late.

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 230 am Mon...southeast to S winds 10 to 15 kts expected most of
Tue night as high pres slides offshore. Winds become north and
increase Wed as the low departs and high pres builds in. Speeds
will reach 15 to 25 kts Wed aftn and cont in that range Wed
night. NE winds 10 to 20 kts expected Thu and Fri as low pres
tracks well offshore and high pres cont to the west.

Seas will build to 2 to 4 feet late Tue and reach 3 to 5 feet
by early Wed. As north winds increase Wed seas will build to 5 to 8
feet by evening. Seas will slowly subside to 4 to 6 feet Thu and
cont in that range into Fri. Confidence in wind speeds and seas
heights is low Thu and Fri as models differ significantly.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am EST Tuesday for ncz081-094.



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