Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 240203
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1003 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
high pressure will extend over the area from the north-northeast
tonight and then slide offshore Friday. The high will remain
offshore through the weekend with the next frontal system
approaching the middle of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 10 PM Thursday...current forecast in good shape as
temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Winds
should continue to gradually diminish overnight with strong
1036 mb high pressure ridging south from the Delmarva region.
Expect good radiational cooling overnight for all but the
immediate coast. Frost advisory for inland portions of
Onslow/Carteret counties where lows mainly 33-36 and higher relative humidity
than last night will lead to areas of frost.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/...
as of 330 PM Thursday...Spring-like warmth will return as high
pressure moves offshore along with ridging aloft. Winds veering
to southeast and S will result in some scattered cumulus/scu during the day
but good insolation will allow temps to warm to 65-70 inland and
60-65 Outer Banks.
Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
as of 240 PM Thu...above normal temperatures expected through
the period...with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing late weekend and early next week.
Friday night through Tuesday...high pressure will remain
anchored off the southeast coast, as frontal boundary slowly
approaches from the west. Warm moist S/SW flow expected across
the region, and low level thickness values support highs 65-70
degrees along the Outer Banks, and upper 60s to upper 70s
inland. Overnight lows generally in the 50s. Weak shortwave
moves through the Carolinas Sunday, and could support an isolated
showers/tstm...though expect best chances west of the area with
better forcing. Similar set up for Mon with scattered convection
possible. Better precip chances Tue as main front and trough
move into the mid-Atlantic and southeast US. Will continue 20-40
Tuesday night through Thursday...latest guidance shows front
pushing through late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High
pressure will build in from the north Wed and Thu, as another
frontal system approaches late week. Continue slight chance pops
Tuesday night, and dry for Wed and Thu. At this time does not
seem like a significant airmass change behind the front, with
above normal temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s Wed...and a few
degrees cooler for Thu.
Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through 00z Saturday/...
as of 635 PM Thursday...high confidence in VFR conditions
overnight and through Saturday. Winds should gradually drop to
below 10 knots by late tonight and early Saturday. While patches
of steam fog cannot be ruled out with winds likely going calm by
morning...especially at kpgv...think the impacts would be very
low and will continue to leave out of the taf at this time.
Clear skies again on Friday...except for possibly some afternoon
cumulus...as winds will slowly veer around to the southeast.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 240 PM Thu...pred VFR through the period, with periods of
sub-VFR possible Sunday through Tuesday in scattered showers and
short term /through Friday/...
as of 10 PM Thursday...with seas continue up to 8 feet at
Diamond buoy...have opted to extend the Small Craft Advisory until 10z as NE
swell energy lingers just offshore and down to the central outer
High center will spread over waters tonight and then shift
offshore Friday, resulting in light veering winds late tonight
and flow becoming S-SW 10-15 knots Friday afternoon. Seas will
subside to 2-3 feet Friday.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 240 PM Thu...high pressure will remain anchored off the
coast through the period, as a slow moving cold front approaches
the waters early next week. S/SW winds generally 5-15 kt
expected into early next week. Seas 2-4 feet Fri night through
Sunday. Models show waves building to 3-5 feet Monday. Could see
some 6 ft seas develop Monday night and Tue south of Oregon
Inlet in combo of SW winds and increasing swell energy.
NC...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EDT Friday for ncz095-098.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Friday for amz152-154.