Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 260458
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1258 am EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
a weak front will linger across the area tonight before being
pushed off the coast Monday. Another weak front will move
through Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the west
Wednesday through late next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1255 am Monday...no precipitation now detected on radar on
land or in the near-shore coastal waters early this morning.
Latest hrrr and rap indicate some light activity is possible
toward morning and will keep a slight chance pop along the
immediate coast overnight, but would not be surprised to see the
night end up dry. Widespread mid/high clouds will continue to
stream across the region. This may hold temperatures up just a
bit and have raised overnight lows a degree or two. Otherwise,
no major changes to the current forecast.
Short term / Tuesday through 6 am Tuesday/...
as of 930 PM Sunday...frontal boundary will linger along the
coast through Monday morning, and could see isolated to
scattered showers along the coast. Again not overly impressed
with chances of precipitation and indicated chances dropping
through the day, never any higher than 20 to 30 for coastal
areas from around Rodanthe south. Expect to see a bit less
clouds on Monday than today, especially inland, but diminishing
along the coast as well, especially during the afternoon. Highs
should be in the 80 to 85 range with more comfortable dewpoints
moving into the area.
Long term /Tuesday through Monday/...
as of 325 PM Sunday...scattered showers expected Tuesday. Then,
cooler and much drier air will spread into eastern NC Wednesday
through late week. Typical summertime pattern redevelops late
week into next weekend with temps a few degrees above normal.
Monday night through Tuesday night...a strong mid-level shortwave
will move through Virginia and the Carolinas Tuesday into
Tuesday night, supporting scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm. Forecast soundings indicate marginal instability
but strong shear and much cooler temps aloft, 500mb temps drop
to -12/-14c, could see some small hail especially a few hours
either side of 00z Wednesday. Will continue chance pops with
slight chance thunder mention both days, but think it will be
isolated. Low level thickness values and predominant north/NE flow
support highs in the low/mid 80s Tuesday, with dewpoints in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.
Wednesday through Sunday...strong high pressure will move overhead
on Wednesday, and off the coast late week into the weekend. While
overhead, this high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass
with lower humidities and cooler temps. Temperatures quickly warm
back up however, as southwest winds return on Thursday and highs
creep back to the upper 80s/90 degrees late week and the weekend.
Low temps for the period will range mostly from the upper
50s/low 60s inland to upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Typical
summertime pattern redevelops late week into next weekend, with
troughing inland and high pressure offshore. Dry wx will cont
through late week, with scattered diurnal convective chances
by the weekend.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through 06z Tuesday/...
as of 1255 am Monday...widespread mid and high level clouds
indicated by satellite although some breaks are indicated and
are expected overnight. With light rain occurring in the
vicinity of koaj and kewn, will include a period of MVFR fog
for the early morning hours of Monday, otherwise will forecast
VFR conditions for this taf cycle as the primary threat for
lower ceilings and widely scattered precipitation will remain
east of the taf sites today and tonight.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
as of 315 PM Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period. Scattered showers and storms may produce brief period
of sub-VFR conditions Tuesday. As usual, patchy fog/stratus will
be possible most mornings.
short term /tonight and Monday/...
as of 1255 am Monday...no changes needed to the current marine
forecast as current buoy observations show mainly west/west-northwest winds at
10 knots or less and seas at 2-3 feet. SW winds will veer to
the northwest overnight and then north-northeast Monday morning and continue at 10-15
kts. Seas are expected to be mostly 2 to 3 feet.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
as of 320 PM Sunday...generally benign and pleasant boating
conditions expected for the long term period. Guidance indicates
a cold front will push towards the eastern NC waters late
Monday night into Tuesday, with generally north to northeasterly
winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft on Monday. Surface high pressure
will build over the area Tuesday night from the northwest,
crest over the waters Wednesday, and move offshore Thursday.
Winds will shift to north/northeast 5-15 kts Wednesday, then
become southeast to south 5-15 kts on Thursday. Seas will be
generally 2-3 ft.