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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
408 am EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

high pressure will weaken and build toward the coast today. Low
pressure will move south of the area tonight. High pressure
will build in from the north later Sunday through early next
week as deepening low pressure moves well offshore.


Near term /through today/...
as of 230 am Sat...high pres will weaken as it builds toward the
coast today with low pressure approaching from the west late. Will
see grad increasing and lowering clouds from SW to NE thru the
day with some light rain developing late espcly SW tier. Models
are a bit slower to increase low lvl moisture so delayed and
lowered pops thru this aftn and have no higher than chc thru
late aftn with nothing NE tier. After a cold start expect highs
to be mainly in the 50 to 55 dgr range with NE CST struggling
to reach 50.


Short term /tonight/...
as of 230 am Sat...weak sfc low will move S of region with good
isent lift and moisture spreading over the area. Cont to have
pops quickly ramping up to categorical thru the evening and cont
overnight. Thermal profiles indicate a cold rain over the
central and srn tier. Across the north temps will be colder aloft
supporting threat of some frozen precip...however lowest lvls
remain above freezing so will cont with trend of a rain/snow
mix. With temps remaining above freezing and ground temps well
above freezing not fcsting any accum. Lows will be in the 30s
areas wide.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
as of 330 am Saturday...
Sunday and Sunday night...low pressure strengthens off the
coast as it encounters good baroclinicity invof the Gulf Stream
and will see NE winds increase through the day Sunday. Wind
gusts inland expected around 20-25 mph but could reach 35-45 mph
along the coast and may need a Wind Advisory the obx late
Sunday/Sunday night. Precip chances continuing in the morning
and taper off late morning and afternoon with mid level drying.
It will remain cloudy much of the day Sunday as moisture remains
trapped below a strong low level inversion with clouds
decreasing more rapidly Sunday night. Continued cool with highs
in the mid to upper 40s most areas to around 50 southern

Monday through Thursday...a blocking pattern develops early to
mid week as the upper trough lifts out early next week and
becomes a vertically stacked low across the northwest Atlantic while
longwave ridging builds along the eastern Seaboard. The upper
ridge will maintain dry conditions while sfc high pressure
continued to wedge in from the north keeping cool temps to the
area Monday into Tuesday. The high weakens as we move into mid-
week with the airmass gradually modifying, however how quickly
it modifies will depend on the position and track of the cut-off
low off the coast. Models beginning to come into better
agreement, especially with high pressure pushing off the coast
Wednesday with return flow bringing a more substantial warm up.
Highs Monday expected in the mid to upper 50s inland to upper
40s obx and a few degrees warmer Tuesday as winds diminish,
especially away from the coast where highs in the upper 50s to
around 60 expected however the obx will likely continue to see
highs in the upper 40s. Lows expected in the 30s inland to mid
40s coast both Monday and Tuesday night. Temps warm into the
mid/upper 60s inland and mid 50s obx Wednesday with low/mid 70s
inland to mid 60s obx Thursday with lows in the mid 40s to
around 50.

Friday...the next frontal system approaches the area late in
the week bringing rain chances Friday into Friday night. There
are some timing differences among the models with the frontal
passage but generally in the Friday afternoon or evening time
frame with rain chances decreasing after midnight. It is looking
like a high shear/Low Cape environment and cannot rule out
isolated tstms but models not in best agreement with degree of
instability and will just mention showers at this time.
Continued warm with highs in the 60s coast to mid 70s inland.


Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 1230 am Sat...VFR will cont today with grad increasing
and lowering clouds this aftn with some spotty light rain late
inland...cigs shld stay mainly in VFR range thru 0z. Conditions
will grad deteriorate tonight as clouds grad lower and precip
becomes widespread. Expect MVFR to develop in the evening then
may reach IFR late. Rain is expected all areas tonight with
some snow mixed in nrn tier overnight.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 330 am Saturday...the low pressure area pulls away from
the area Sunday but lingering low level moisture may continue to
bring sub-VFR conditions into Sunday. Expect pred VFR Sunday
night through Wednesday with high pressure across the area.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 230 am Sat...north-northwest winds 10 to 20 kts early today will
diminish 10 kts or less later this aftn as sfc high builds twrd
the coast. The high will slide offshore tonight with low
pressure crossing just to the S by daybreak Sunday. Light winds
thru the evening will become east-northeast and increase to near 20 kts
over srn tier late tonight in advance of the low.

Seas of 3 to 5 feet north and 2 to 4 feet S early will subside to 1
to 3 feet all wtrs by this evening. Seas will begin to build
quickly late tonight over central and srn tier as winds
increase...building to 4 to poss 5 feet prior to daybreak.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 4 am Saturday...low pressure low deepens off the coast as
it moves away from the area Sunday with NE winds increasing to
25-35 kt Sunday afternoon through Monday. Meso models remain on
the stronger side of the models with a period of gale force
winds across the coastal waters and perhaps the Pamlico Sound
and have issued a gale watch for these areas. Seas build quickly
Sunday as low pressure deepens off the coast, reaching around
7-10 ft north and 5-9 ft south late Sunday into Monday.

The low pressure system stalls across the northwest Atlantic as we move
into mid week. Models coming into better agreement with the
track of the low into Wednesday and especially with high
pressure pushing off the coast sometime Wednesday. North/NE winds
gradually diminish Monday night through Tuesday, then veer to
S/SW sometime Wednesday. The low will continue to bring large
swells across the coastal waters into mid-week and seas will
potentially be around 8-12 ft or higher across the northern
waters and 4-8 ft southern waters.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...freeze warning until 9 am EDT this morning for ncz095-098.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
Gale watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
Gale watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for



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