Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 100135
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
835 PM EST sun Dec 9 2018
the coastal storm that has plagued the region will slowly move
away from the coast through Tuesday. High pressure will build
over the area Tuesday night through Thursday. Another strong
storm system will affect the region the end of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
as of 8 PM Sunday...strengthening low pressure has moved to off
Cape Hatteras early this evening. The main low will lift NE
away from the area overnight, though cyclogenesis will continue
off Hatteras with an area of low pressure persisting near the
strong baroclinic zone of the Gulf Stream until the upper trough
begins to push through late Monday. Strong north-northeast winds have
developed on the back side of the low and have seen wind gusts
up to 60-70 mph at several locations across and adjacent to the
Pamlico Sound this evening. Strong wind gusts will continue
through much of the overnight before slowly diminishing late.
Bulk of the precip has lifted north of the area this evening but
expect rain to wrap back into the region overnight. Temp will
remain freezing with temps aloft above 2x so there will be no
p-type issues tonight.
Myriad of coastal hazards remain in effect due to the strong
gradient the low causes. 6 hrly pres falls are as high as 12mb
this evening per latest 09/12z model guide. Followed meso model
suite (wrf-arw, WRF-nmm, nam) for winds, and it appears a period
of High Wind Warning criteria will be met with some winds
gusting to around 60 mph for the obx, 45-55 mph for Carteret
through Mainland Dare, Hyde, and Tyrrell counties. There may be
a break in the rain before upper level low to the west moves
over NC and more widespread rain moves back in late tonight.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through 6 PM Monday/...
as of 3 PM sun...upper level low will pivot through the region
on Monday. Column will begin to cool through the day, and
soundings indicate some wet snow may mix in with the rain for
esp the northern coastal plain counties, where mix of ra/sn
continues in the grids esp from mid morning to around noon.
Temps will be quite cold with the precip, low stratus, and brisk
NE winds. Highs range from the mid/upr 30s inland to the low/mid
40s coast. Winds will only slowly diminish through the day with
the low pres only slowly moving away from the NC coast. In fact,
may see secondary low pres develop by late in the day and esp in
the evening, reinforcing the rain over the area, esp coastal
Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
as of 3 PM Sunday...low pressure will gradually move away from
the coast Monday night and Tuesday with high pressure building
in from the north and northeast Wednesday and Thursday. Another
strong system will arrive by early Friday producing potential
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds into early next week.
Monday night and Tuesday...with strong mid-level vorticity
dropping through the base of the 500 mb trough leading to
continued cyclogenesis just off our coast, precipitation is
likely to continue Monday night before ending early Tuesday as
the low finally moves away from the coast. Thermal profiles and
soundings from the 3km NAM, GFS and European model (ecmwf) all support at least
some mixed precipitation across the southern third of the County Warning Area
Monday night/early Tuesday. Will not include accumulations at
this time, but would not be shocked if some areas closer to the
coast could see a dusting. Low temperatures inland will be in
the upper 20s with low/mid 30s near the coast. Any precipitation
during Tuesday will be early and confined to coastal areas.
Highs Tuesday will be in the low/mid 40s with around 50 Outer
Tuesday night through Thursday...high pressure will build in
from the north and northeast through midweek with below normal
temperatures and dry conditions expected. Highs will mostly be
in the mid/upper 40s Wednesday, but will warm well into the 50s
Thursday night through Sunday...another strong and dynamic storm
system will impact eastern NC starting early Friday into next
weekend. Ahead of the storm, temperatures will warm nicely with
low/mid 60s for highs Friday and Saturday as this will be more
of a Pacific-originated system. Concerns early on with this
system will be the threat for very heavy rainfall as early
GFS/European model (ecmwf) quantitative precipitation forecast already shows 2-4 inches, along with strong gusty
winds. Some convective potential exists Friday night, and have
thunder over the coastal waters. Too early to determine severe
Aviation /01z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through tonight/
as of 7 PM Sunday...pred IFR conditions will prevail through
most of the taf period, though could see cigs briefly lift to
MVFR this evening with the lull in precip but expect rain to
wrap back in after midnight with IFR cigs returning. An area of
low pressure will lift northeast along the NC coast tonight
bringing gusty north-northeast winds around 25-35 knots through late
tonight. Models and guidance are indicating flying conditions
will begin to improve tomorrow afternoon with cigs lifting to
Long term /Monday night through Friday/
as of 220 PM Sunday...some mixed precipitation may occur at the
southern taf sites of kewn, kiso and koaj overnight Monday into
early Tuesday morning. With high pressure building over the
region from the north and northeast, VFR conditions should
prevail Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system approaches
from the west by early Friday and with developing showers, some
sub-VFR conditions will be possible on Friday.
short term /through Monday/...
as of 8 PM sun...NE winds cont to inc as low pres strengthens
and moves up the Carolina coast this afternoon. The low is
centered just offshore Cape Hatteras this evening. Nrn/crtl
waters as well as both sounds and The Alligator river are in a
Storm Warning, given expected wind gusts in excess of 50 kt
this evening, and in fact several reports of gusts around 50-60
kt across the Pamlico Sound early this evening. The winds will
gradually diminish towards daybreak. Rest of the marine gale
warnings continue. Pres falls are quite dramatic this evening,
on the order of 15mb/6hr, and latest meso model suite indicate
NE sustained winds 35-45 kt with some gusts to 50 kt, and felt
confident enough for the Storm Warning. May be more marginal on
The Alligator/Albemarle. Seas build as high as 15-19 ft on the
coastal waters, with waves as high as 4-6 ft on Pamlico Sound.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/
as of 3 PM Sunday...gusty northerly winds and rough seas will
continue Monday night into Tuesday, driving seas as high as
10-15 feet as surface low slowly moves along the coast and pulls
away during Tuesday. Winds and seas finally subside to below Small Craft Advisory
during Wednesday afternoon/evening as high pressure settles over
the waters, leading to a relatively benign Thursday with east/southeast
winds at 10-15 knots. As another strong and dynamic storm system
approaches from the west by early Friday, southeast/S winds will become
gusty winds wind approaching gale force and seas building to
10-feet or greater by later in the day on Friday.
as of 330 PM sun...a prolonged period of strong winds are
expected through Monday night as low pres strengthens and moves
slowly away from the NC coast. Based on the current forecast
track and duration of strong winds, coastal flooding, rough surf
and beach erosion will be likely. Minor to moderate coastal
flooding, with water level rises 1-4 ft above ground (2-5 ft
above normal) expected. This will produce coastal Flood Warning
type water level rises for ocean side Dare north of Hatteras,
and downeast Carteret through Craven counties. Coastal flood
advisories continue for the Beaufort, Pamlico and Soundside
Hatteras isl and Ocracoke. Winds become more north-northeast tonight and
Monday, with the threat expanding to include the Oceanside of
the Outer Banks (mainly north of cape hatteras) and Soundside
Outer Banks, from the Buxton area down to Ocracoke. The greatest
threat for beach erosion, rough surf, and localized ocean
overwash will be for the beaches north of Hatteras. Due to the
prolonged period of strong winds and wave run up, the coastal
flood threat is likely to persist for a few days for many
coastal locations. A secondary low will develop offshore of the
Carolinas later Monday into early Tuesday, and may keep gale
force winds and coastal flooding issues in play into Tuesday.
Thereafter, conditions should improve into mid week.
NC...Wind Advisory until 4 am EST Monday for ncz046-047-081.
High Wind Warning until 6 am EST Monday for ncz103-104.
High surf advisory until 10 am EST Monday for ncz095-104.
Coastal flood advisory from 1 am to 7 PM EST Monday for ncz104.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for ncz103.
High surf advisory until 1 am EST Tuesday for ncz103.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 am EST Monday for ncz093>095.
Wind Advisory until 7 am EST Monday for ncz095.
Coastal flood advisory until 4 am EST Monday for ncz080-081.
Marine...Gale Warning until 6 am EST Monday for amz136-137.
Storm Warning until 6 am EST Monday for amz130-131-135-150-152-
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for amz158.