Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kmhx 231840 
afdmhx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
240 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure will build in from the northwest today then slide
offshore Friday. The high will remain offshore through the
weekend with the next frontal system approaching the middle of
next week.

&&

Near term /today/...
as of 1000 am Thursday...minor update for hourly temp/dew point
trends. Fair and cool forecast on track with high pressure
extending over area from north.

/Previous discussion/
as of 630 am Thu...cold high pres will build in from the northwest
with mainly clear skies. High temps will be well below normal
ranging from mid 40s NE CST to mid 50s S.

&&

Short term /tonight through Friday/...
as of 230 am Thu...the strong high will remain centered near
the area leading to good radiational cooling with light winds
and mainly clr skies. Lows will range from around 30 cooler
inland spots to mid/upr 30s beaches. A light south wind
Friday will push afternoon highs into the mid/upper 60s with
cooler upper 50s/lower 60s on the Outer Banks.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
as of 240 PM Thu...above normal temperatures expected through
the period...with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing late weekend and early next week.

Friday night through Tuesday...high pressure will remain
anchored off the southeast coast, as frontal boundary slowly
approaches from the west. Warm moist S/SW flow expected across
the region, and low level thickness values support highs 65-70
degrees along the Outer Banks, and upper 60s to upper 70s
inland. Overnight lows generally in the 50s. Weak shortwave
moves through the Carolinas Sunday, and could support an isolated
showers/tstm...though expect best chances west of the area with
better forcing. Similar set up for Mon with scattered convection
possible. Better precip chances Tue as main front and trough
move into the mid-Atlantic and southeast US. Will continue 20-40
pops...highest Tue.

Tuesday night through Thursday...latest guidance shows front
pushing through late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High
pressure will build in from the north Wed and Thu, as another
frontal system approaches late week. Continue slight chance pops
Tuesday night, and dry for Wed and Thu. At this time does not
seem like a significant airmass change behind the front, with
above normal temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s Wed...and a few
degrees cooler for Thu.

&&

Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
short term /through Friday/...
as of 1230 PM Thu...VFR conditions expected through the short
term. Crystal clear skies present this afternoon, with winds
10-15 knots out of the north/northeast. Winds will occasionally
gust 15-20 knots this afternoon before dropping below 10 knots
tonight. Skies remain clear overnight and dewpoints begin to
increase, but with the dry north wind, fog should remain mostly
a non factor. Clear skies again on Friday and winds will slowly
veer around to the southeast.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 240 PM Thu...pred VFR through the period, with periods of
sub-VFR possible Sunday through Tuesday in scattered showers and
isolated tstms.

&&

Marine...
short term /through Friday/...
as of 1200 PM Thursday...quick update for Small Craft Advisory expiration
Pamlico Sound. Latest obs have gusts below 25 knots and latest
guidance supports current forecast of diminishing winds through
afternoon.

/Previous discussion/
as of 630 am Thu...updated earlier to issue Small Craft Advisory for Pamlico
Sound thru the morn as winds have been steadily increasing past
cpl hrs and 06z mdls slightly stronger with winds. As high pres
builds closer these winds shld diminish by around noon.
Otherwise no changes with elevated seas cont today cstl waters.

Prev disc...NE winds 15 to 25 kts currently will slowly
diminish 10 to 15 kts by this evening...then become light east-southeast
overnight with the high centered just to the northwest. Seas of 6 to 10
ft currently will subside to 4 to 6 feet late today and reach 2
to 4 feet tonight. Small Craft Advisory will end later today or early evening
coastal waters.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 240 PM Thu...high pressure will remain anchored off the
coast through the period, as a slow moving cold front approaches
the waters early next week. S/SW winds generally 5-15 kt
expected into early next week. Seas 2-4 feet Fri night through
Sunday. Models show waves building to 3-5 feet Monday. Could see
some 6 ft seas develop Monday night and Tue south of Oregon
Inlet in combo of SW winds and increasing swell energy.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EDT Friday for ncz095-098.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for amz150-
156-158.

&&

$$
Synopsis...rf
near term...rf/jbm

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations