Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 110259
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
959 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016
cold high pressure will exit to the east Sunday. A warm front
will move north through the area Sunday night. A cold front will
cross the area Monday night and stall just to the south of the
area. The front will lift north across the area as a warm front
Tuesday night. Another cold front will cross the area Wednesday
night. High pressure will build over the area late in the week.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
as of 10 PM Saturday...excellent radiational cooling conditions
overnight. Low temps similar to last night. Freeze warning
remains in effect for the obx as they should see a period of calm
winds with the high overhead.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday/...
as of 3 PM Saturday...high pres will slide offshore on Sunday
with building hts/thicknesses in response. Temps will respond by
moderating back into the 50-55 degree range. Winds will become
easterly though remain light. Sunday night, coastal trough/warm
front will lift north through the forecast area with area of modest albeit
low level lift propagating through east NC. It appears best chance
for showers will be across coastal locales where moisture is
deepest, though some light showers can be expected further inland
as well. Low temps will occur near sunset, then steadily
moistening of the atms and inc southerly flow allow for temps to
rise through the night, with coastal areas around 60 degree by
late Sunday night. Monday, area will be in warm sector with deep
SW flow across the area. Chances for precip will diminish with
best lift and moisture north of the area, though will continue
inherited low chc pops with warm moist atms. Temps should climb
towards the upper 60s to near 70 degrees for many areas.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
as of 235 am Saturday...a fast and progressive low amplitude
zonal flow will continue across much of the Continental U.S. Through next
week with a series of disturbances moving across the area. This
will cause a parade of fronts to move across eastern NC producing
unsettled conditions Sunday night into perhaps Thursday. Forecast
confidence in precipitation details continues below normal due to
the progressive nature of the flow resulting in a lack of run to
run consistency and differences among the models. Temperatures
will moderate by Monday which could be the warmest day of the week
then a series of cold fronts will cross the area through mid week
producing near normal temperatures.
Sunday and Sunday night...high pressure will be moving offshore
Sunday with increasing clouds expected in the afternoon.
Increasing southerly flow Sunday night will lead to an increase in
moisture over the area and should see showers develop Sunday
night especially eastern portion. Highs Sunday will range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s inland to lower to middle 50s coast. Lows
Sunday night are expected to occur in the evening with deeper
cloud cover and developing southerly flow resulting in increasing
temperatures after midnight.
Mon thru Thursday...cold front will be approaching from the west
Monday and cross the area Mon night with a good chance of showers
and mild temps with highs Mon near 70. High pres will quickly
build in briefly Tue afternoon with near seasonal highs in the 55
to 60 degree range. The initial cold front which is forecast to
stall to the south Tuesday will move north through the area as a
warm front Tuesday night. Another cold front is expected to cross
Wed night however low confidence given lack of model agreement and
consistency. For now will have chance pops Tuesday night into
Thursday. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be 55 to 60 cooling to
45 to 50 Thursday as high pressure begins to build into the area.
Friday...expecting "dirty" high pressure to build into the area
from the north with cool/dry weather under mostly cloudy skies.
Highs are forecast in the 40s.
Aviation /03z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through 18z Sunday/...
as of 10 PM Sat...VFR sky clear for the taf pd. A few high cirrus may
skirt through east NC overnight and winds will be calm. Light east
winds Sunday around 5 knots.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 235 am Saturday...high pressure will slide off the coast
sun with continued VFR then return flow will lead to some increase
in clouds late Sunday and a chc of showers with sub VFR conditions
Sunday into Mon night. Looks like VFR will briefly return Tue as
high pressure builds over the area in the afternoon. Then moisture
increases ahead of the next cold front Wednesday with showers
producing sub VFR conditions.
short term /through Sunday night/...
as of 10 PM Friday... latest obs indicating north-northwest winds 5-10 kt
most areas. High will edge offshore on Sunday with winds veering
NE to east but staying light in the 5-10 kt range. High moves
offshore further while cold front approaches from the west and
winds respond by increasing dramatically Sunday night into early
Monday. Have hoisted Small Craft Advisory for all but the rivers and Albemarle
Sound as gusty SW flow and building seas will affect the marine
domain Sunday evening through as late as Monday evening due to
lingering high seas.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 235 am Saturday...winds will then shift to north 10 to 15 kt
Monday night then diminish to NE 5 to 10 kt late Tuesday behind
the front. Light northerly flow Wednesday is expected to become
west/northwest 10 to 15 knots. Seas of 1 to 3 feet Sunday will will build to 5
to 8 ft Sunday night and Monday then subside to 3 to 5 ft late
Monday night. Seas will be forecast 2 to 4 ft Tuesday building to
3 to 5 ft Wednesday. .
NC...freeze warning until 8 am EST Sunday for ncz103-104.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 10 am EST Monday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 PM EST Monday for
Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 1 PM EST Monday for amz150.