Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 201930
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019
a cold front will move continue to push offshore tonight. Low
pressure will pass well north of the area Sunday. High pressure
will build into the region early next week and continue through
mid week. A cold front will move through by late in the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 245 PM Saturday...deep upr low will slowly approach from
the west tonight. Moisture will remain limited ahead of this
feature and expect the sct to bkn cu over the area this aftn to
diminish this evening. With winds diminishing as well expect
cool lows in the 45 to 50 dgr range inland with 50s beaches.
Short term /Sunday/...
as of 245 PM Saturday...the upr low will swing across the area
Sunday. Combo of a little more moisture and steep lapse rates
will lead to deck of cu forming over the area with some spotty
shra or sprinkles. Mdls show best potential for shra nrn tier so
have slight chc pops centered over this area but cant rule out
one just about anywhere. Temps will be a bit below normal for
late Apr with 65 to 70 expected.
Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/...
as of 320 PM Sat...dry weather is forecast to prevail through
mid week before another cold front brings a chance for showers
or storms near the end of the work week, although uncertainty
exists in the timing of this front.
Sunday night...a chance of spotty showers or sprinkles lingers
for the evening mainly for the northern tier as the upper low
lifts to the north. Maintained a slight chance pop for the
northern tier of counties. Temperatures bottom out in the mid to
upper 40s, 50s beaches.
Monday through Tuesday...subtropical high pressure is expected
to ridge into the area early next week, bringing very pleasant
and rain- free conditions with temps moderating each day. Highs
near climo on Mon with most areas touching the mid 70s, and
above climo by Tue with mid to upper 70s along the coast, low
Wednesday through Saturday...model spread and thus forecast
certainty decreases mid-week regarding the evolution of a
shortwave trough digging into the Southern Plains, developing a
weak surface low with a stationary front extending east to the
mid- Atlantic. The implications on eastern North Carolina's
weather is the amplitude of the aforementioned sub-tropical
ridge and where this front (and precipitation) sets up. The
European model (ecmwf) has a stronger ridge and keeps the front well to our
north, while the GFS shows a nearly zonal pattern with the front
farther south. The European model (ecmwf) has been more consistent the past few
runs and leaned the forecast in its direction.
This results in a drier forecast towards the end of the week
before the shortwave approaches our area, with the best chance
of rain at the end of the week. Uncertainty is higher than
normal and only kept low end chc pops to account for future
shifts in model trends as upper level pattern is better
resolved. Temps mid week are expected to reach the low to
possibly mid 80s mid week before moderating into the 70s by the
weekend as mid-level thicknesses fall with the approach of the
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
short term /through Sunday/...
as of 1220 PM Saturday...VFR expected thru period. South-southwest winds
will remain gusty thru late this aftn then diminish. Mainly sct
cumulus this aftn shld diminish this evening with some patchy high
clouds overnight. Shld have a light breeze and decent temp/dewpt
spread to preclude any fog from developing. As upr low crosses
Sunday expect steep lapse rates to lead to sct to bkn cu from
late morn on. Some very light shra or sprinkles poss but shld
have little impact to vsbys.
Long term /Sun night through Thu/...
as of 320 PM Sat...pleasant flying conditions will dominate
through mid week as sprawling high pres builds into the region.
short term /tonight and Sunday/...
as of 245 PM Saturday...winds remain quite gusty over the region
this aftn with some 30+ kt obs srn CST. The winds are expected
to diminish overnight as mixing ends and grdnt loosens...speed
shld be 15 kt or less late tonight with dir west-southwest. West-southwest winds 15 kt
or less cont Sunday with weak sfc low to the north and high pres to
the SW. Large swells will keep seas elevated along the coast
with seas of 6 to 10 feet this evening dropping to 5 to 8 feet
by morning and reaching 4 to 6 feet sun aftn. Cont Small Craft Advisory cstl
wtrs. Will cont Small Craft Advisory sounds and rivers into the evening for the
Long term /Sun night through Thu/...
as of 325 PM Sat... seas remain elevated above 6 ft through Sun
night as large swell is slow to subside due in part to
continued SW flow, albeit light, in the 10-15 kt range. Good
boating conditions finally return by the beginning of the work
week as high pres builds in. Generally light winds of 5-10 knots
and seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet give way to a steady SW flow
of 10-15 knots by Wednesday, with seas building to 3 to 5 feet
Wednesday into Thursday.
as of 245 PM Sat...high surf advry wil come down this evening
as seas near shore cont to grad subside.
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz195-
High surf advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ncz196-204-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for amz136-
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz131-
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Monday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Monday for amz156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for amz150.