Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 191620
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1220 PM EDT sun Aug 19 2018
high pressure will extend over the area from well offshore
through the weekend with a weak trough over the central
Piedmont. A weak cold front will drop into the northern
forecast area late Sunday night and Monday, then lift back north
Monday night and Tuesday. Another cold front will move through
the area Thursday, then stall off the coast into next weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1220 PM Sunday...widespread scu/cumulus inland has limited
heating so far with no precip. As cu lifts and scatters out a
bit this aftn still expecting sct shra/tsra to eventually
form...did delay and lower pops a bit.
Prev disc...precipitation has moved offshore and most of
eastern NC will experience a lull for a few hours as
temperatures warm quickly under partly sunny skies. Expect
scattered activity to redevelop along the sea breeze this
afternoon, but with less coverage than Saturday, and will have a
30-40 pct pop for the afternoon hours. High temperatures this
afternoon should reach the mid/upper 80s. Rain chances will
start to increase again by sunset.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Monday/...
as of 345 am Sunday...the axis of deepest moisture and
precipitable water moves toward the coast tonight. As a result,
have likely pops along the coastal sections through the
overnight hours with heavy downpours possible as the precipitable
water hovers near 2.25 inches. Pops taper back to chance inland
tonight. Lows tonight will again be warm and muggy, mainly in
the mid 70s.
Long term /Monday through Sunday/...
as of 310 am sun...a mean upper trough is forecast over the
eastern US through the period while low level southerly flow
continues to circulate a very moist airmass across our region
with precipitable water values at or above 2". The favorable combination of forcing
aloft and moisture/instability in the low levels will result in
unsettled conditions through the first part of the week with
precipitation chances at or above normal and temperatures at or
slightly below normal. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase
above climatological norms through mid week as conditions remain
favorable for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Monday through Tuesday...a weak front is forecast to drop
southward into the northern forecast area late Sunday night and
Monday, then lift back north Monday night and early Tuesday.
Highs in the mid to upper 80s through mid week, and overnight
lows in the 70s.
Wednesday through Sunday...another cold front will approach the
area mid to late week. There are still some timing differences,
with the GFS much more progressive and pushes the front through
quite a bit faster than the European model (ecmwf). Expect the front to push
through the area Thursday, then likely remained stalled off the
coast into the weekend as strong high pressure builds in from
the north. Expect to see a drier airmass build into the area
with lesser precip chances. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Some
guidance has lows dropping into the low/mid 60s late week and
Aviation /16z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through Mon/...
as of 1220 PM Sunday...high based MVFR cigs in cu shld lift and
sct out with mainly VFR this aftn into the evening. Will again
deal with some sct convection later this aftn and evening that
could lead to brief sub VFR. Later tonight/early Mon most of
the guidance is indicating potential for patchy fog and low cigs
inland and wl show some MVFR/IFR for these areas. Low clouds
will grad lift again Mon with return to VFR however will again
have threat for convection and brief sub VFR at times.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
as of 310 am sun...scattered to numerous showers and storms
will produce sub-VFR conditions at times through the period. In
addition conditions will be favorable for periods of low clouds
and fog early each morning. A cold front will push through the
area Wednesday night and Thursday.
short term /through tonight/...
as of 1220 PM Sunday...wl cont marginal Small Craft Advisory central and srn
wtrs with some gusts to 25 kts and seas flirting with 6 ft will
Prev disc...based on trends in the observations have dropped
the Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico Sound. Have also dropped the advisory
north of Oregon Inlet. Gusty winds continue on the coastal
waters with gusts of 25 knots at Diamond buoy and 27 knots at
the buoy 17 miles south of Ocracoke early this morning. Earlier
extended the Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet
through late morning. Most of the high- resolution models do
indicate winds to trend downward over the next several hours.
Seas have generally not responded with only a few areas on the
far outer waters reaching 6 feet. Seas into tonight should run
3-5 feet central waters and 2-4 feet elsewhere.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 310 am sun...a weak front is forecast to drop into the
northern waters late Sunday night and Monday, then lift back
north Monday night and early Tuesday. West/SW winds 5-15 kt early
Monday with seas 2-5 ft, becoming east/southeast across the northern
waters and remaining SW south of Hatteras. S/SW winds return for
all waters Tuesday 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft early building to 3-5 ft Tuesday night.
Gradient tightens Tue night and Wed, with SW winds increasing to
15-25 kt and seas building to 3-6 ft. Could see a brief period
of Small Craft Advisory conditions Tue night into Wed, with best chances across
the central waters. A cold front is likely to push through the
waters Thursday then stall off the coast into the weekend. Winds
will shift becoming NE/east 5-15 kt.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz152-
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for amz156-