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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
825 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

high pressure will extend over the area from the north and northeast
through Sunday. A weak low will approach from the southeast Monday through
midweek. A cold front is forecast to push through the area Thursday
followed by high pressure from the north Friday into Saturday.


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
as of 745 PM Saturday...only minor tweaks to reflect current
conditions. Some showers continue to linger over Duplin County,
but expect showers to diminish and move out of the forecast area
within the next hour or so. High pressure extending in from the
north will produce mostly clear conditions rest of evening, but
increasing low level easterly flow expected to result in isolated
shower/tstm threat along coast overnight. Per aviation discussion,
some low clouds and patchy fog likely for inland sections late
tonight. Lows from around 70 inland to mid 70s coast.


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through 6 PM Sunday/...
as of 300 PM Saturday...surface high pressure will continue to
extend over area from northeast. Low level easterly flow and
energy associated with a upper level disturbance moving toward
area from east will produce a shower threat over eastern half of
area during the morning, then shower/tstm threat across all of
area with higher pops inland for afternoon. Decrease in low level
thicknesses of 15-20 M and increased cloud cover and precip threat
will result in Max temps mainly mid to upper 80s across area.


Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/...
as of 300 PM Saturday...a complicated forecast continues for the
long term period due to differences on movement and extent of
tropical activity to the south and an area of low pressure in the
western Atlantic. Temperatures will generally be around normal
through most of the period until a front pushes through late week
with a cooler and drier airmass building into the area.

Sunday night...with the upper ridge weakened by a shortwave trof
that will push across the northern mid-Atlantic and New England
states and a weak front dissipating across the area, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to dissipate across the area
through the evening with loss of heating. Overnight the best chances
of precipitation will be towards the coast as weak low approaches
from the southeast.

Monday through Wednesday...a great deal of uncertainty remains with
the potential for a tropical system well to our south in the
Bahamas. However,chances of development have decreased and it is
appearing that that system will not play a large role in our
weather. The models are in better agreement for a weak low currently
south of Bermuda to track towards the NC coast Monday and linger
into Wednesday. Chances are low for any tropical development with
this low, but it will bring increasing moisture across the area and a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
produce heavy downpours. Daytime highs will be held down into the
mid/upr 80s due to the cloud cover and precip and we will have warm
and muggy nights with lows in the 70s.

Thursday through Saturday...models are in better agreement that
upper troffing will develop later in the week with a cold front
pushing through the area on Thursday. This will push the lingering
weak low and moisture off the coast and out of the area. Will have
some lingering pops in the area Thursday and across the southern County Warning Area
on Friday. Expect a drier more comfortable air mass moving in Friday
into Saturday bringing more comfortable temperatures and lower
humidity. Lows Friday night will fall to the mid 60s inland and
expect highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s.


Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through Sunday afternoon/...
as of 745 PM Saturday...high confidence of VFR conditions will
prevail for the next six hours, then low stratus and patchy fog
will develop and cause IFR and potentially LIFR conditions early
Sunday morning.

A weak boundary have caused the winds to become NE this evening
and will become calm overnight. An increase of low level moisture
will move into the area and will aid the development of fog and
stratus to develop around 8z. VFR conditions will return back by
Sunday mid-morning. By Sunday afternoon, expect cloudy conditions and
thunderstorms to develop, meanwhile winds become more easterly.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 300 PM Saturday...scattered to potentially numerous
showers/storms expected through at least Wednesday. This may be
exacerbated by tropical moisture streaming into the area and
potentially limit cigs to sub MVFR as indicated by model
soundings. Areas of fog and stratus will be possible each
night/early morning with moist low levels and light winds. By
Thursday a cold front will begin moving through the area, pushing
some of the moisture offshore and to our south with a lesser
chance for showers and thunderstorms by Thursday night.


short term /through Sunday/...
as of 745 PM Saturday...forecast in good shape. Latest buoy obs
are showing light NE flow and seas around 3 ft.

High pressure extending over area from north and northeast will
produce northeast to east winds over the waters through Sunday.
Speeds will generally be 5-10 knots with some 10-15 knots for northern
waters. Seas mainly 2-3 feet this evening will gradually build to
3-4 feet overnight and Sunday.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 300 PM Saturday...a weak frontal boundary will dissipate
across the region Sunday while high pressure builds back in from
the north with a coastal trough/weak area of low pressure
retrograding into the waters early next week. Predominant winds
through Sunday night will be easterly 5-15 kts with seas 2-4 feet.
A weak area of low pressure will approach from the southeast Monday and
linger over the area through Wednesday as it potentially merges
with a front moving into the area Thursday. Most indications are
that the area of low pressure will be quite weak with little
chance of tropical development. The main impact will be increased
moisture resulting in shower and thunderstorm activity across the
waters. Currently the wind forecast will be 10 to 15 kt or less
through the period. Winds will generally be east/NE into Tue,
becoming southeast/S Wed and north on Thursday behind the front. Seas on
the coastal waters will average 2-4 feet through early Sunday
night. Long period swell of 13-15 seconds is forecast to impact
all coastal waters beginning late Sunday night as swell energy
from very distant tropical cyclone Gaston starts to arrive. Seas
expected to build to 3-5 feet, though could see the outer central
waters build to 6 feet through Tuesday with a period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...jbm/bm
short term...jbm
long term...rsb

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