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fxus62 kmhx 200739 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
239 am EST Mon Nov 20 2017

high pressure will pass through the area from the west today and
tonight, moving off the coast Tuesday. A cold front will move
through late Tuesday night and off the coast Wednesday. Areas of
low pressure will move northeast across the offshore waters
Thursday through Saturday. A dry cold front will move through
Sunday, bringing a shot of much colder air.


Near term /through today/...
as of 230 am Mon...high pressure will continue to build in from
the west, making for an overall pleasant day, though temps will
remain below normal. Low level thickness values and sunny skies
support highs in the lower to mid 50s for the Outer Banks, and
mid 50s to upper 50s inland.


Short term /tonight/...
as of 230 am Mon...with the surface ridge overhead, clear skies
and calm winds are forecast throughout. There will be the
potential for frost for those coastal counties that have not yet
ended the growing season (mainland Hyde, Pamlico and
carteret)...with temps dropping into the mid to upper 30s.


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 230 am Mon...high pres will slide offshore Tue with
increasing clouds and warmer temps as low lvl flow becomes southeast
to S. Highs will be well into the 60s across much of the area.
An area of low pres will lift NE just off the coast Tue night
and depart to the NE Wed. Expect decent coverage of showers to
spread across the region Tue night and cont likely pops most
areas with good chc deep inland. The showers will end from west to
east Wed morn as the low departs with decreasing clouds and
increasing north winds. Temps will be mild Tue night with lows
mostly in the 50s. Shld reach upr 50s to mid 60s Wed before
better cold air advection kicks in. Dry and cool Wed night as high pres builds
in with lows mid/upr 30s inland to mostly 40s beaches.

Low confidence for the Thu thru Sat period. Models agree
that a couple areas of low pres will lift NE off the coast
however track and timing differ. Leaned a little closer to European model (ecmwf)
with mainly dry conditions Thu and Fri with just slight pop
CST. For the late Fri night and Sat time period added a small
pop CST per European model (ecmwf) showing good moisture and quantitative precipitation forecast spreading across
with another low lifting NE ahead of approaching cold front.
Cool temps cont Thu and Fri with north/NE winds highs mostly in the
50s. On Sat will warm a bit ahead of approaching cold front with
lower 60s expected.

Strong cold front will cross Sat night with cold high pres
building in from the west sun and Mon. Highs sun will be in the 50s
and looks like mainly 40s to around 50 for Mon. Lows will
likely approach or reach freezing most inland areas Sun night.


Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through tonight/
as of 1 am Monday...VFR conditions will continue through this
taf cycle as strong high pressure builds across the region.
Skies will be clear with light and variable winds.

Long term /Tue through Fri/...
as of 230 am Mon...VFR expected Tue as high pres slides off the
coast. Showers expected to develop Tue night and early Wed as
low pres lifts NE off the coast. These showers will likely lead
to a few periods of sub VFR espcly closer to CST. VFR should
return later Wed as high pres builds in and the low departs.
Mainly VFR expected Thu and Fri with deeper moisture and shower
threat expected mainly east of taf sites.


short term /through tonight/
as of 230 am Mon...improving boating conditions forecast in the
short term as high pressure builds across the area from the
west. Northwest winds 10-20 knots this morning become 5-10 knots
this afternoon. Marginal Small Craft Advisory criteria at present on the coastal
waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke. No changes to current

Long term /Tue through Fri/...
as of 230 am Mon...southeast to S winds 10 to 15 kts expected most of
Tue and Tue night as high pres slides offshore. Winds become north
and increase Wed as the low departs and high pres builds in.
Speeds will reach 15 to 25 kts Wed aftn and cont in that range
Wed night. NE winds 10 to 20 kts expected Thu and Fri as low
pres tracks well offshore and high pres cont to the west.

Seas of 1 to 3 feet early Tue will build to 2 to 4 feet late
Tue and reach 3 to 5 feet by early Wed. As north winds increase Wed
seas will build to 5 to 8 feet by evening. Seas will slowly
subside to 4 to 6 feet Thu and cont in that range into Fri.
Confidence in wind speeds and seas heights is low Thu and Fri
as models differ significantly.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EST early this morning for



near term...hsa

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