Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 231608
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1208 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
high pressure will build in from the northwest today then slide
offshore Friday. The high will remain offshore through the
weekend with the next frontal system approaching the middle of
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1000 am Thursday...minor update for hourly temp/dew point
trends. Fair and cool forecast on track with high pressure
extending over area from north.
as of 630 am Thu...cold high pres will build in from the northwest
with mainly clear skies. High temps will be well below normal
ranging from mid 40s NE CST to mid 50s S.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
as of 230 am Thu...the strong high will remain centered near
the area leading to good radiational cooling with light winds
and mainly clr skies. Lows will range from around 30 cooler
inland spots to mid/upr 30s beaches.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 230 am Thu...used an even blend of the latest GFS and
European model (ecmwf). High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will move east
as a cold front approaches from the west. A light south wind
Friday will push afternoon highs into the mid/upper 60s with
cooler upper 50s/lower 60s on the Outer Banks. Deeper southwest
flow forecast Saturday with even warmer highs reaching the
lower/mid 70s with mid 60s Outer Banks. The cold front
approaches from the west Sunday but deeper moisture lifts out to
the north of the area during the day so will only carry slight
chance pops. Deeper moisture in place Monday ahead of the front
so bumped up pops to 30% all areas. Afternoon highs even warmer
especially along the coastal plain with highs approaching 80.
Cooler along the South Coast in the lower/mid 70s and Outer
Banks in the mid 60s. The front finally pushes through Tuesday
and off the coast Tuesday night. Dynamics not very impressive so
kept pops capped at 30%. Dry weather returns Wednesday with
surface ridge extending into the region from the Great Lakes.
Aviation /16z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 630 am Thu...high confidence in mainly VFR conditions
through the taf cycle. Mainly clr skies thru period with just
some thin high clouds from time to time. Dew pts will be slowly
increasing later tonight and could see some patchy fog late but
confidence is low so no mention in fcst.
Long term /Fri through Monday/...
as of 230 am Thu...
VFR through Saturday night, then sub-VFR in isolated
showers/tstms Sunday and in scattered showers/tstms Monday.
Surface winds will be from the south-southwest 5-10 knots Friday, SW 10-15
knots Saturday, S 10-15 knots Sunday and SW 10-15 knots Monday.
short term/through tonight/...
as of 1200 PM Thursday...quick update for Small Craft Advisory expiration Pamlico
Sound. Latest obs have gusts below 25 knots and latest guidance
supports current forecast of diminishing winds through
as of 630 am Thu...updated earlier to issue Small Craft Advisory for Pamlico
Sound thru the morn as winds have been steadily increasing past
cpl hrs and 06z mdls slightly stronger with winds. As high pres
builds closer these winds shld diminish by around noon.
Otherwise no changes with elevated seas cont today cstl waters.
Prev disc...NE winds 15 to 25 kts currently will slowly
diminish 10 to 15 kts by this evening...then become light east-southeast
overnight with the high centered just to the northwest. Seas of 6 to 10
ft currently will subside to 4 to 6 feet late today and reach 2
to 4 feet tonight. Small Craft Advisory will end later today or early evening
Long term /Fri through Monday/...
as of 230 am Thu...a south southwest flow is forecast through
the long term, with high pressure in the western Atlantic and a
cold front approaching from the west early next week. Speeds
will average 5-15 knots. Seas will average 2-4 feet through
Saturday night. Seas will build a bit early next week as the
front gets closer, averaging 3-5 feet north of Oregon Inlet and
south of Cape Lookout, with 4-7 feet from Oregon Inlet to
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz152-
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for amz150-