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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
642 PM EDT sun Jul 24 2016

an inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will
prevail through the week ahead. A weak cool front will approach
from the north Thursday, then remain stalled over the mid-
Atlantic region through Sunday.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 640 PM significant changes needed to previous
forecast for evening update. Another warm and muggy night expected
with Bermuda high-type pattern. Isolated convective activity
expected to remain just south of Duplin County for the next hour
or so, otherwise no precip threat for overnight period. Mostly
clear skies prevailing with just some thin cirrus overnight after
early evening cumulus dissipates. Min temps similar to last
night...73-75 inland and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast.


Short term /Monday/...
as of 330 PM Sunday...only change for Monday from today is models
are indicating low level thickness values a few meters lower which
results in Max temps a degree or so cooler. Max temp forecast will
reflect this but will still see several hours of heat indices 105
to 109 for all but Ocracoke, and posted another heat advisory
accordingly. Mav and met MOS dew point guidance continues to be
underdone for inland sections with forecast afternoon readings in
lower 70s. Both guidance products have been indicating this for
past 2 days and kpgv and kocw dew points have remained around 75
both Saturday and Sunday. Went with persistence forecast.

Models continue to indicate no convective development again Monday
with subsidence inversion likely keeping area capped.


Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
as of 330 PM significant changes were noted in the
24/12z model suite which continues trend of long duration heat
wave through the extended with minimal precip chances. Will
highlight the dangerous heat indices through next weekend in the
severe weather potential statement. An east- west oriented upper ridge with above climo
hts/thicknesses will be responsible for the above normal heat and
humidity for most of the eastern Continental U.S. Through late week and into
the weekend.

Monday night through Tuesday night...a strong upper level ridge
will build east from the Southern Plains across the southeast/mid
Atlantic regions producing hot temperatures into the mid 90s and
afternoon heat index values aoa 105 degrees. Strong subsidence and
minimal short wave activity will preclude any convective activity
through Monday night. Weak short wave energy moving across just to
the north Tuesday along with increase in deep layer moisture with
precipitable water values building to around 2 inches, would support a very low
chance for a shower or thunderstorm for the northern tier
generally north of Hwy 264 Tue afternoon through evening.

Wednesday through Thursday...Med/long range model suite continue
in good agreement with upper ridge axis shifting slightly south
with some troughing developing into the Ohio Valley and NE U.S.
This will allow the base of the westerlies and the track of mid
level shortwaves to brush NC for the mid week period, which will
lead to slightly better chances for diurnal showers and
thunderstorms for mainly interior zones and continued low chance
pops for the sct activity. Continued hot temps with dewpoints
well into the 70s will continue heat indices aoa 105 which is in
line with wpc values between 105-110 each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...long range model suite diverges somewhat
on evolution of the heat ridge this period, with the European model (ecmwf)/CMC
Camp rebuilding the ridge across the southeast/mid Atlantic and
the GFS slightly more suppressed. Have favored the former soln due
to more support from ensemble mean. This soln favors continued hot
and humid, and in fact the European model (ecmwf) suggests even hotter temps for
the Friday/Saturday period which will continue the long duration
heat wave with heat indices nearing 110 degrees by Friday. Precip
wise, have lowered pops to just slght chc each afternoon as
capping inversion will limit even diurnal convection. Temps will
continue mid to perhaps upper 90s for highs with very warm
overnight lows mid 70s interior to low 80s beaches. Sunday may
finally bring some relief in the oppressive heat/humidity if short
wave across the Great Lakes region can push a cool front towards east
NC which would bring a better chance of showers/storms to the


Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through Monday/...
as of 640 PM sun...VFR conditions currently with few/sct diurnal
cu gradually dissipating with loss of heating. Will trend with
persistence given little/no change to airmass. Some patchy sub-VFR
fog will be possible overnight with mostly clear skies and light
winds, with best chances at oaj, similar to this morning. Sct
diurnal cu expected to develop again Monday with light SW winds.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 330 PM Sunday...mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as strong mid level ridging persists across the
region with only minimal convective activity expected mainly
during the afternoon/evening for Wed/thur. With any storm,
conditions will tempo drop to sub VFR. May see patchy br each
night as humidity vals will be high and winds light.


short term /through Monday/...
as of 640 PM Sunday...latest obs show S/SW winds 10-15 knots with
gusts to 20 knots across the outer central and northern
waters...with seas 2-3 feet. Persistence forecast during period
with little change in surface pressure pattern indicated.
Southwest winds will continue cycle of speeds around 15 knots this
evening, lowering to around 10 knots overnight into Monday morning,
then increasing again Monday afternoon. Seas around 2 feet through
Monday morning, increasing to 2-3 feet Monday afternoon.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 330 PM Sunday...the models continue to indicate typical
Bermuda high/inland thermal trough pattern through the period,
resulting in persistent SW flow around 15 knots across the waters.
Winds may pick up to up to 20 knots during the late afternoon and
evening hours as the thermal land/sea gradient maximizes. A weak
cold front may approach the northern waters late Wed into thur
which will decrease the winds. The front will quickly weaken
though with SW winds 15 knots re-developing by Friday as the thermal
gradient increases again. Seas will be 2-3 feet through the period
with some 4 ft sets across outer waters for late afternoon/evening
period Tue coinciding with the gustier SW winds.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz029-044>047-
Heat advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ncz029-044>047-


near term...jbm/cqd
short term...jbm

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