Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 280520
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
120 am EDT Wed Jun 28 2017
an upper level disturbance will cross the region overnight.
High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday through late
week then move offshore for the weekend with troughing inland
through early next week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 110 am Wed...cold front now has passed through the region
and is currently tracking south through the coastal waters. Last
of the showers and thunderstorms are moving into the Gulf Stream
off of Oregon Inlet, and have a dry forecast going forward.
Cold front seems to have moved a bit slower than expected, and
still have mild temps along the southern coast. Have adjusted
temps up, and raised low temps a few degrees in these areas.
Still think lows inland will drop into the upper 50s, and upper
60s to low 70s along the immediate coast. Also adjusted
dewpoints up a few degrees based on current trends.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 am Thursday/...
as of 300 PM Tuesday...dry weather with pleasant temperatures
and comfortable humidities are expected Wednesday as high
pressure remains over the area. High temps inland will be in the
mid 80s with upper 70s to lower 80s expected along the coast.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 315 PM Tuesday...high pressure will settle overhead
through Wednesday night and provide fair and seasonably cool
conditions. The high shifts off the coast Thursday, and
southerly flow develops, and will bring an increase of moisture.
Unsettled weather returns Friday through Tuesday as scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day.
Wednesday night and Thursday...dry weather is expected both
Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure influencing the area.
Lows Wednesday night will be pleasant but a couple degrees
warmer than Tuesday night, with lows in the lower 60s inland to
lower 70s along the immediate coast. Winds come around to the
southeast Thursday, and humidity begins to increase as high pressure
slides off the coast. High temps on Thursday will be mainly in
the mid/upper 80s inland and the low/mid 80s along the coast.
Friday...a weak upper level disturbance will move into the
region Friday morning originating from the Gulf of Mexico. Both
the latest GFS and Euro show fairly widespread showers for the
southern half of the County Warning Area on Friday. So, have slight chance pops
increasing from the south starting late Friday Thursday
night/early Friday morning. Pops increase to 20 to 40 percent
Friday, highest across southern areas. Shower/thunderstorm
activity will shift to the coast and coastal waters Friday night and
have chance pops along the coast for this. High temps will
reach the upper 80s and the low to mid 80s for coastal areas.
Saturday through Tuesday...scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop each afternoon from Saturday to Tuesday and
move towards the coast overnight. Have broad chance pops for
this period with the highest pops over inland areas during the
day, and along the coast at night. A weak front may aid shower
and thunderstorm development Sunday and again on Tuesday. High
temps look to be around 90 inland and mid 80s near the coast.
With lows in the lower to mid 70s
Aviation /05z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through 06z Thursday/...
as of 115 am Wed...VFR conditions are expected through the taf
period. Some mid/high clouds currently over the southern coast
will move out to sea, and then mostly clear conditions will
persist through Thursday morning. Winds will be very light
overnight and out of the NE Thursday morning, then east-northeast later in
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 315 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Some brief sub-VFR periods are possible
Friday through Sunday as scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop and could see some periods of MVFR-IFR
fog/low stratus early mornings beginning on Friday.
short term /tonight and Wednesday/...
as of 300 PM Tuesday...main concern is the potential for
moderate north/NE flow late tonight into Wednesday as high pressure
builds over the waters. Light/variable winds 10 kt or less
occurring over the waters this afternoon will become southerly
around 10 kt this evening. Then after midnight the flow will
become northwest-N, veering to NE-east Wednesday. The NAM and CMC
regional models indicate that winds could reach 20 kt sustained
late tonight/early Wednesday while the GFS keeps this flow
around 10 kt. Have trended the forecast closer to the stronger
models and will indicate winds increasing to 15 kt with gusts to
20 kt late tonight and early Wednesday. Seas will be 1-2 feet
through this evening then build to around 3 ft late tonight
into Wednesday in the stronger flow.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 315 PM Tuesday...fair boating conditions expected in the
long term, especially Thursday. Winds will turn to the southeast
Wednesday night and remain weak. Southeast flow around 10 knots gradually
becomes more southerly by Thursday night into Friday. By
Saturday winds become more southwest and increase to 10-15 kts.
This will continue into Sunday. Could see periods of 15 to 20 knots
in the outer waters. Saturday and Sunday. Seas will be mostly
2-3 ft, with some 4 foot seas possible beginning Saturday over
the central and southern waters.