Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 221104
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
704 am EDT Sat Jul 22 2017
offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions. A weak cold front will move into the region
early next week and become stationary.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Sat...no changes, zones in good shape. Heat and
humidity will continue again with heat index values 105-109
degrees. Low level thickness values and 850mb temps around 20c
support highs in the mid 90s inland and upper 80s/low 90s along
the coast. Another heat advisory today for all of the forecast
area except for Outer Banks Hyde County. Isolated storms will be
possible again during the afternoon and evening, but think the
best chance will be west of Highway 17 late, with ridge
Short term / Sunday through 6 am Sunday/...
as of 3 am Sat...quantitative precipitation forecast from the European model (ecmwf) and nam12 have dry
conditions from 00-06z. However, the GFS is very aggressive in
tracking a vort along the NC/Virginia line overnight and pushing a
convective complex down through the forecast area. Mcss have
moved southeast last night and again tonight through the Ohio
Valley into the mid- Atlantic. HPC quantitative precipitation forecast tracks another mesoscale convective system
tonight along a similar path tonight, passing just north of our
northern counties. GFS therefore looks overdone, but will not
make any changes to pops tonight, keeping slight chance going
along coastal plain and northern tier through 04z, then dry for
the remainder of the night. Yet another warm, muggy night with
lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
as of 3 am Sat...no significant changes to the forecast. One
more oppressively hot day Sunday then a little cooler and wetter
for the early part of the week. May dry a bit mid week as front
tries to push S of region briefly, with a return northward and
more unsettled weather later in the week.
Sunday through Sunday night...dry through most of this period
with the main thunderstorm activity well north across the mid
Atlantic, with a possible mesoscale convective system. Beyond an isolated sea breeze
storm Sunday afternoon, if we were to see anything organized the
best chance would be across the far north. Continued low chance
pops across the far north to account for this as these areas
could be on the outer edges of a dying mesoscale convective system. We remain in a
marginal risk for severe weather across the far north. Limiting
factor remains the convection making it this far south.
Models cont to Show Low level thicknesses around 1435-1440
meters Sunday. This will support Max temps easily reaching the
mid 90s one last day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s,
critical heat index values at or above 105 degrees are expected once
again Sunday afternoon.
Forecast Max temps will generally be below record highs at most
sites during period. See climate section below for details.
Monday through Tuesday...upper level heights will lower in the
east Monday, as a massive upper level high over Arkansas today
retreats west toward The Four Corners area of the southwest US.
The result for US will be a little cooler and unsettled
weather. On Monday a cold front will approach and while not as
hot as this weekend, temps will again climb into the 90s one
more day with the southwest flow ahead of the front...with heat
index values poss flirting with 105 again inland. The front
looks to move slowly southeast into the region later Tue, bringing the
entire area a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday through Friday...front mentioned above should stall
near srn sections Wed keeping threat of shra and storms these
areas with less chc across the north. The front lifts back north of
region Thursday and Friday with a return to slightly better
chances for thunderstorms each day, especially during the peak
heating of the day. Highs mostly 80s Wed then could see around
90/low 90s again inland late week.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Sat...pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Light SW winds 5-10 knots this morning, increasing to
10-15 knots with gusts 15-20 knots this afternoon. Isolated
storms possible again in the afternoon. Winds diminish back to
5-10 knots Sat night. Any convection will dissipate in the
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 300 am Sat...VFR expected through the weekend with only
isold threat of convection. Cont mainly VFR Mon thru Wed
however will have better coverage of shra/tsra from time to time
resulting in a few pds of sub VFR. Weak front drops thru later
Tue and stalls over southern sections Wed...could see some
lower cigs assoc with the front and some late night fog.
short term /through tonight/
as of 7 am Sat...no changes. High pressure will continue
offshore with troughing inland through the period continuing the
S to SW flow. Latest obs show 10-20 kt and seas 2-3 ft north
and 3-5 ft south. Winds in the Pamlico Sound and at Diamond buoy
have been 15-20 knots for the past several hours. Since Small Craft Advisory
conditions will develop once again this afternoon will make no
adjustment to headlines, but will tweak wording in the zones.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 300 am Sat...south-southwest winds of 15 to 25 kts will cont Sunday
thru Mon between offshore high pres and front/trf to the west.
These winds will lead to seas of mainly 5 to 6 feet outer
central and srn wtrs. Added srn wtrs to Small Craft Advisory starting early
Sunday into Sunday evening. Also extended Small Craft Advisory for central wtrs
thru Mon evening per ocnl gusts aoa 25 kts and 6 ft seas. As
front gets closer later Mon night winds and seas will slowly
subside. The front will drop thru nrn half of region later Tue
into Tue night then stall and weaken a bit Wed over srn tier.
Expect nrn wtrs will see a period of light onshore east to NE
winds behind front Tue night into Wed while srn tier will cont
with mainly S to SW winds but shld be light. Seas will subside
to 2 to 3 feet all wtrs Wed.
record Max temps for 07/22 (sat)
New Bern 106/1952 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 92/1987 (khse asos)
Greenville 102/2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 100/1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 105/1932 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 99/2011 (knca awos)
Record Max temps for 07/23 (sun)
New Bern 100/1952 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 92/1972 (khse asos)
Greenville 103/1932 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 98/1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 103/2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 97/1995 (knca awos)
Record Max temps for 07/24 (mon)
New Bern 99/1952 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 90/2016 (khse asos)
Greenville 99/2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 96/1999 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 101/1952 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 97/1995 (knca awos)
NC...heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EDT Sunday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Tuesday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 am EDT
Monday for amz156.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 am to 9 PM EDT Sunday for amz158.