Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 251945
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
345 PM EDT Thu may 25 2017
high pressure will pass to the south Friday and Saturday. A
frontal boundary will move south into the region Saturday night
and become stationary through Tuesday morning, when it will
move off the coast. Another front will move in Wednesday and
become stationary across the area.
Near term /tonight/...
as of 330 PM Thursday...latest sfc analysis is showing the sfc
low over the Ohio, meanwhile a sfc trough over the central NC.
An mid-upper vort Max will become negatively tilted as it moves
across eastern NC this afternoon. Even though, dewpoints are
in 50s/ low 60s, but with strong upper level forcing and mid
levels becoming very cold enough to cause steep lapse rates
aloft to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storm Prediction Center
continues to keep our region in a marginal risk for severe
storms, but think if any thunderstorms to become strong it will
be isolated. Main threat will be gusty winds and hail.
Latest radar returns are showing isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing across east NC. Storms will weaken
and diminish with the lack of heating and vort Max lifting
northeast tonight. The sfc low over Ohio will finally lift
northeast overnight, as high pressure builds in from the south.
Expect overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degree
inland to mid/upper 60s South Coast and Outer Banks under partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies.
Short term /Friday/...
as of 330 PM thurs...weak high pressure will build in from the
south through Saturday. Expect mostly sunny skies and much
warmer weather. Low level thicknesses are supporting MOS
guidance with high temps in the low 80s inland and upper 70s
along the beaches.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
as of 245 PM Thursday...unsettled weather due to a stalled front
over the region will continue through early next week. Another
front will approach the area next Thursday.
Friday night through Sunday...after a dry Friday night, weak
low pressure will move along the NC/Virginia border Saturday into
Saturday night as the mid-level ridge weakens and weak 500 mb
shortwaves cross the region. A chance of precipitation will
occur mainly across the northern counties late Saturday into
Saturday night. As the weak boundary moves south and stalls on
Sunday, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
over most of the area on Sunday. 800 mb temps will support a rather
warm weekend, especially inland with highs into the lower 90s
with mid 80s along the coast.
Sunday night through Tuesday...deep moisture will linger across
the County Warning Area through early next week with a stalled boundary over the
southern part of NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue and will continue with 30-40 pct pop through the
period. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with most of our
County Warning Area north of the boundary with highs mid 80s and lows mid 60s.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...weak ridging will build
in from the west shunting any precipitation to near or just off
the coast. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler with
highs mid 80s and lows in the low/mid 60s.
Thursday...scattered showers and thunderstorms return,
especially later in the day, as another slow-moving cold front
enters the area from the west.
Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/...
short term /through tonight/
as of 1255 PM Thu...high confidence of VFR conditions will
persist through most of the taf period. Cold front has pushed
off the coast this morning...leading to scattered clouds around
5kft. Expect scattered clouds through most of the day with broken
ceiling as an mid-upper level vort Max crosses eastern NC. This
will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of
which could be severe with gusty winds and hail. SW winds 10-15
knots with gusty winds up to 25 knots. Any convection will end
early this evening with skies becoming clear late tonight. Winds
will diminish to around 10 knots and continue through the
overnight. VFR conditions will continue Friday with SW winds
around 10 knots gusting to 20 knots.
Long term /Fri night through tues/
as of 245 PM Thursday...VFR conditions are expected Friday night
and Saturday with weak mid-level ridging in place. Occasional
MVFR ceilings and vsbys will then be possible starting Saturday
night and continuing into Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary
stalls over the region with scattered showers and a few embedded
short term /tonight and Friday/
as of 330 PM thurs. Latest buoy obs are showing SW winds 15-25
with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas are 6 to 10 ft south of Oregon
Inlet with the highest over the southern waters, meanwhile 3 to
5 ft north. Southwest winds will continue 15-25 knots with
occasional gusts up to 35 knots (occasional gale gusts) south of
Cape Hatteras as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will
start to decrease early Friday morning (before sunrise), then
becoming west 15-20 knots Friday afternoon. Seas will be 7 to
11 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 4 to 6 ft north tonight and
overnight. Seas will subside 4 to 6 ft Friday afternoon. No
change to current small craft advisories now in effect.
Long term /Fri night through tues/
as of 245 PM Thursday...seas will gradually fall below 6 feet
over the central waters Friday night with improving and
relatively quiet marine conditions for most of the upcoming
week. With upper ridge offshore and a weak boundary impacting
inland areas, expect winds to continue SW at 10-15 knots with
occasional gusts to 20 knots, especially during the evening
hours over the next several days. Per latest local nwps/Swan and
wavewatch, seas should range from 2-5 feet through the period.
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz095-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for amz136-
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for amz130-131-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for amz156-158.