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fxus62 kmhx 281115 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
715 am EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure over the Atlantic will continue through the
weekend producing record or near record highs over eastern North
Carolina. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and
cross late Monday night or early Tuesday. High pressure will
build in behind the front Wednesday. Developing low pressure is
forecast to pass west then north of the area late next week pushing
a warm front north through the region Thursday then a cold will
sweep through the area Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 7 am Friday... latest sfc analysis show a low pressure
system over the central Canada as a front push into the western
sections of NC, but will stall and eventually lift. A weak
shortwave associated with this feature is crossing eastern NC
based on WV. A few showers developed during the overnight hours,
but have been short-lived. Will continue the mention of
isolated showers through mid morning as hi-res models continue
show activity. WV satellite is showing subsidence in wake of
isolated morning showers will lead to dry conditions across
eastern NC, but hi- res models continue to show the possible
showers along sea-breeze. Overall, it will be mostly dry this
afternoon, but an isolated showers can not be ruled out.

Ridging aloft and high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic will lead to very warm and humid conditions across east
NC today. Low level thicknesses will range btw 1406-1416 M
supporting high temperatures in the near 90 degrees inland to
low 80s along the coast. These temps will be nearing record
territory for the area (see climate section below).

&&

Short term /tonight/...
as of 330 am Friday...quiet weather with south-southwest flow and partly
cloudy skies expected. Another warm night with lows reaching
only down into the upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 330 am Friday...models remain in decent agreement during
period with a upper ridge indicated for weekend, then more
progressive flow leading to more unsettled weather for next
week.

Saturday through Sunday night...ridging surface and aloft will
result in a warm and dry period with temps 10-15 degrees above
normal. Models continue to indicate mainly dry weather this
period. Lows each night in upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs
Saturday in lower 90s inland with around 80 beaches, then a
couple degrees cooler Sunday.

Mon through Thu...a cold front will approach from the west late Mon
and slowly cross the region Mon night and early Tue. Will
remain warm Mon with a low chc of some convection espcly inland
during the aftn as the front approaches. Models continue to
indicate a decent coverage of precipitation Mon night/early Tue
with the front sliding offshore late Tue with lingering shra
ending from west to east in the morning. Will continue likely pops for
Monday night. Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s then
cool into the 70s Tue behind the front. High pressure is
forecast to build into the area Wed with dry weather and temps
moderating into the low 80s inland. The weather for late next
week will feature a strong upper low and complex surface low
pressure which will push a couple of fronts through the
area with the potential for significant precipitation late week
and much cooler temperatures next weekend.

&&

Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Friday...high confidence in VFR conditions will for
all taf sites, once the low stratus scatters out by mid morning
due to the weak shortwave. Afternoon cumulus clouds will develop this
afternoon with diurnal heating with a very small chance for a
showers along the sea-breeze... not enough to include tafs at
this time. Expect SW 10-15 knots by the afternoon, then becoming
under 10 knots tonight. Low stratus clouds are expected to
redevelop again late tonight...leading to MVFR conditions.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Friday...VFR expected to prevail through Monday
morning with enough nocturnal mixing to preclude fog
development. A cold front will be moving across the area Mon
night into early Tue with better coverage of shra and storms
with periods of sub VFR conditions possible. High pressure
builds in behind the front late Tuesday.

&&

Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as 7 am Friday...latest buoy observations are showing SW 5-15
knots and 3 to 6 ft with the highest seas over the central
waters. Expect S to SW winds 10-20 knots with seas 3 to 6 ft
with the highest over the central waters...where Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect today.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Friday...moderate SW flow of 10 to 20 kts expected
thru Sunday around offshore high pressure. Approaching cold
front will increase the SW winds late to 20-25 kt Sunday night
through early Tuesday. Winds are forecast to become west around
15 kt behind front Tuesday.

Some are forecast to be 3-5 ft through Sunday evening. Sea heights
will build again late Sunday night through Tue peaking at 6-10
ft Mon/Mon night, then slowly subsiding late Tuesday.

&&

Hydrology...
as of 7 am Friday...the Tar River in Greenville and Neuse River
in Kinston is expected to reach moderated flooding, while
Contentnea Creek in Hookerton is already in major flooding this
morning. The NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin forecast remains in
minor flooding. The Roanoke River is forecast to rise over the
next several days due to increased flow out of Kerr dam but is
expected to remain just below flood stage. A river Flood Warning
has also been issued for areas upstream of Trenton along the
Trent river as gauge is about to reach the 14 foot flood stage.

&&

Climate...
record highs are possible through Sunday as an extremely warm air
mass settles over eastern NC.



Record high temperatures for 04/28
---------------------------
location temperature/year
New Bern 92/1957 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 82/1994 (khse asos)
Greenville 94/1981 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 83/1985 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 95/1990 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 89/1985 (knca awos)



Record high temperatures for 04/29
---------------------------
location temperature/year
New Bern 90/1974 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 84/1994 (khse asos)
Greenville 91/1981 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 86/2002 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 96/1914 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 89/1974 (knca awos)



Record high temperatures for 04/30
---------------------------
location temperature/year
New Bern 91/1974 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 84/1974 (khse asos)
Greenville 92/1957 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 86/1957 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 94/1906 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 90/1987 (knca awos)

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-103-
104.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for amz152-
154.

&&

$$
Synopsis...bm
near term...bm
short term...bm

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