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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
141 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

an inland trough/offshore high pressure pattern will prevail
through next week. A weak cold front will approach from the north
Tuesday night, but will stall and retreat back north Wednesday.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 945 am Sat...very isolated showers continue across Sneads
Ferry/Folkstone area of southern Onslow County. Otherwise partly
cloudy skies prevail. Will continue slght chance pop mention for
typical sea breeze zones this afternoon...roughly from knca
through the sound counties of Mainland Dare/Hyde after 18z.
Otherwise hot and humid today with heat indices flirting with the
105 degree range for a couple hours this afternoon.

Previous of 530 am Saturday, made a minor
forecast update to introduce slight chance pops through the
morning for the southwestern portion of the County Warning Area. A few showers
have developed just west of our area with a ver slow southeastward
drift. These showers could skirt the area or a few additional
showers could develop across Duplin and Onslow counties. High
resolution model guidance shows a variety of possible solutions.
Favored a tempered blend allowing for some potential for showers,
but not as bullish as some guidance. A strong upper level ridge
over the Southern Plains will continue to build east overnight.
Light southerly flow will inhibit the fog formation, but cannot
rule out a brief patchy fog prior to sunrise. The area of slight
chance of a shower or thunderstorm will expand slightly this
afternoon to account for the possibility of a thunderstorm on the
sea breeze this afternoon. Was on the fence about going with a
heat advisory today but GFS MOS guidance came in slightly cooler.
European model (ecmwf) MOS was more in line with current forecast so did not make
much of a change, keeping highs today in the low to mid 90s with
heat index values btw 100-103 degree f. Can't rule out briefly
getting to a 105 heat index in a few places, but didn't have
enough confidence in widespread or prolonged high heat index
values to go with the advisory. Regardless, it will still be
uncomfortably hot and humid today, and people performing
activities outdoors should remain vigilant to keeping hydrated and
taking it easy should symptoms of heat exhaustion develop.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...
as of 245 am Saturday...not much change in the forecast for
tonight...with clear skies and a light southwesterly breeze. It
should remain dry overnight with warm lows in the mid 70s inland
to lower 80s along the coast.


Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/...
as of 315 am significant changes noted in the 00z
model run with regards to the forecast for next week. Upper
ridging will influence the weather across eastern NC through the
end of next week with a typical offshore high/inland trough
surface pattern prevailing through the period. This will result in
a prolonged period of hot temperatures with highs well into the
90s. A weak cold front will approach from the north Tuesday night
but is forecast to stall and return north Wednesday. A weakness in
the upper ridge will develop late next week allowing broad
troughing across the northern tier to dip south into NC, which
would allow for mid level shortwaves to have more of an affect in
our area leading to better chances of thunderstorms Thursday and

Sunday through Tuesday...a strong upper level ridge will build
east from the Southern Plains across the southeast/mid Atlantic regions
producing hot temperatures into the mid 90s and afternoon heat
index values around 105 degrees possibly warranting heat
advisories. Strong subsidence should keep precipitation chances to
a minimum and will forecast a diurnal convective regime with only
slight chances for an afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm.
Will continue to highlight the dangerous heat potential in severe weather potential statement.

Wednesday through Friday...although upper ridging is forecast to
prevail through late next week, it will weaken allowing the base
of the westerlies and the track of mid level shortwaves to brush
NC by late week. This should lead to better chances for showers
and thunderstorms especially late next week. Expect continued
high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s with Max heat index
values in the low 100s.


Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
short term /through Sunday afternoon/...
as of 145 PM Saturday...VFR conditions are expected for most of
the short term. Exception being area of MVFR fog that may develop
west of Highway 17 around sunrise.

Winds are light and out of the S this afternoon. Scattered
cumulus have developed around 3k ft across the region and will
dissipate after sunset. Most inland regions will decouple
overnight, which will lead to the possibility of fog formation.
Moderate confidence for MVFR conditions inland and low confidence
closer to the coast, I.E. Ewn. So went with MVFR group from 6-8 am
for all but ewn. Fog will burn off quickly Sunday morning with
clear skies and light and variable winds expected.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 315 am Saturday...mainly VFR conditions are expected
through Tuesday as strong mid level ridging persists across the
region with only minimal convective activity expected mainly
during the afternoon/evenings. Conditions will become more
unstable Wednesday which is expected to lead to greater coverage
of showers and thunderstorms and the potential for sub VFR


short term /through tonight/...
as of 945 am Saturday, the area will remain under southwesterly
flow that is expected to Ebb in the mornings to around 10 knots and
increase in the afternoon and evenings to around 15 to 20 kt,
as thermal land/sea gradient increases with afternoon heating.
Seas will be predominately 2 to 3 ft. The local Swan has been
running consistently high showing too large an area of 4 foot seas
early in the forecast period. Blended in more wave watch to scale
that back, but can't rule out some 4 foot waves in the outer
coastal waters through the period.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 315 am Saturday...the pressure pattern will consist of high
pressure over the Atlantic, an inland trough of low pressure, and
a weak cold front approaching from the northwest Tuesday/Tuesday night
that should remain north of the waters through late next week.
This will result in a persistent SW flow around 15 knots across the
waters through the period. Winds are expected to become slightly
stronger, to around 20 kt, during the late afternoon and evening
hours each day, when the pressure gradient between the Piedmont
thermal trough and the Bermuda high offshore is strongest. Seas
will continue 2-4 ft through the period occasionally reaching 5 feet
over the outer waters during periods of stronger flow.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...rsb/tl
short term...rsb/bm
long term...jme

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