Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 271719
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
119 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017
high pressure will extend over the area from the north
this morning then move offshore this afternoon. A cold front
will move through from the northwest Saturday and then stall off
the coast Sunday into next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1030 am Thursday...forecast on track and no changes with
as of 625 am Thursday...high pressure over the area will
continue to produce mostly clear skies and light winds this
morning. Increasing southerly flow will produce warmer high
temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and mid 80s beaches.
Should see diurnal cumulus develop late today as flow becomes
increasingly moist but we are not expecting any precipitation
through 00z this evening.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
as of 315 am Thursday...the models continue to develop
precipitation in the increasingly moist southerly flow well out
ahead of the cold front across eastern NC tonight especially
areas north of the Neuse River from late evening Onward when and
where forcing will be best. Will have 20% pops south to 40%
north. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s
Long term /Friday through Thursday/...
as of 330 PM Wednesday...a cold front approaches the area
Friday and will move across the area Saturday bringing a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The
front will stall off the coast with a quasi-stationary low
pressure area remaining over Virginia and NE NC Sunday into Monday
before it lift NE away from the area.
Friday through Monday...a shortwave trough moves across the
Great Lakes Friday and deepens as it slides into the mid-
Atlantic states. A majority of the 00z models now develop a
cut-off low over somewhere over the mid-Atlantic states by
Saturday which remains quasi-stationary near the area into
Monday. As a result, models are slower to push the attendant
cold front through the area Saturday with a vertically stacked
low remaining north of the area Sunday into Monday which may
continue to bring a few showers across the region into early
next week. Confidence in the forecast has decreased this period
and the models are just coming on-board with a cut-off low and
they typically have a difficult time with the placement/movement
of cut-off lows.
Increasing SW flow with ample moisture and instability, descent
shear and favorable upper level dynamics continues to bring the
potential for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and
night, and may persist into Saturday with the later passage of
the cold front expected. The primary severe threat will be
damaging wind gusts. While storm motions are expected to be
fairly fast, with precipitable water values in excess of 2" storms could bring
heavy rainfall and if training occurs may produce localized
flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Strong SW flow persists Friday ahead of the front bringing warm
temps with highs expected around 90 inland to mid 80s along the
coast. Cooler behind the front Saturday through Monday with
highs in the mid 80s most areas except lower 80s across the obx.
Lows expected in the 70s Friday night then mid to upper 60s
inland and low to mid 70s coast Saturday and Sunday nights.
Tuesday through Wednesday...a weak upper trough persists across
the southeast Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday while the
offshore front begins to push back toward the coast. Low
confidence in the models remain as there are differences in the
strength of the upper trough and whether it persists or lifts
out Wednesday as well as the strength and timing of potential
low pressure areas lifting NE along the offshore frontal
boundary. Temps expected to remain a few degrees below climo
Aviation /17z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through Friday afternoon/...
as of 115 PM thurs...VFR conditions are expected through the taf
period. Some scattered cumulus is present across the region with
bases around 4000 ft. Overnight, lower clouds are expected to
develop around 1000 ft, but confidence is low as to how
widespread they will be. So, will continue VFR conditions for
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 330 am Thursday...periods of sub-VFR conditions expected
Friday through Saturday as a strong frontal system will
approach the region Friday and push across the region Saturday
bring periods of showers and thunderstorms across rtes. A few
storms could be strong to severe Friday afternoon/night and into
Saturday. Generally VFR conditions expected Sunday and Monday
but may see isolated showers across rtes.
short term /through tonight/...
as of 1030 am Thursday...no changes with update.
as of 625 am Thursday...high pressure extending over area from
the north will weaken this morning and gradually move offshore
this afternoon and tonight. East/southeast winds currently 5-10 knots will
will become S in afternoon with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots
over the sounds, and the northern and central waters. Tonight
the S winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt over the Pamlico Sound
and the northern and central waters. Seas will be mainly 2-3 ft
today building to 3 to 4 ft tonight.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 345 am Thursday...a strong cold front will approach the
region Friday and move across the waters Saturday. An area of
low pressure may also remain just north of the waters Sunday
into Monday before lifting NE away from the area late Monday. SW
winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-4 ft Friday expected
to increase to 15-25 kt Friday night into Saturday morning ahead
of the front with seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds become northwest around
10-20 kt late Saturday behind the front, which gradually shifts
to north Sunday and NE by late Monday. Seas expected around 3-6 ft
Sunday into Monday, highest across the northern and central