Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 232017
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
317 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018
a cold front will move through the area today. High pressure
behind the front will pass through from the west late this week,
moving off the coast this weekend. The next front will approach
early next week.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 305 PM Tue...line of heavy rain showers has moved off the
coast, and only widely scattered showers remain across eastern
NC. Have all pops offshore now, with dry weather expected
through tonight. Marine fog has developed and has moved into
coastal areas as strong warm SW flow rides over fairly cold
water. Visibilities are being reduced to 2 miles or less and
will continue to monitor if a fog advisory is needed. Strong
winds are expected this afternoon, as clearing allows good
mixing of the lower atmosphere, with very strong winds just
above the surface. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid
70s inland, with low to mid 60s at the coast.
Winds should die down after sunset, and with high pressure
building in, skies will remain clear. Low temps tonight will be
in the mid to upper 30s inland, and the low 40s along the coast.
Short term /Wednesday/...
as of 310 PM Tue...high pressure will shift just offshore on
Wednesday and provide dry weather, as upper trough exits to New
England. High temps are expected to be in the low to mid 50s
across the area.
Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...high pressure building in will bring dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures Tuesday night through
Friday. A warming trend will occur this weekend with another
threat for showers Saturday night and Sunday.
Wednesday night through Friday...a mid level disturbance and
sfc trough pushes across the region late Wednesday/Wednesday
night and could see a few more clouds across the region but the
airmass remains very dry with precipitable water values only around a third of
an inch and don't expect any precipitation. Will see height
rises across the region Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge
builds into the region keeping dry conditions. Sfc high pressure
builds in from the west Thursday and begins to push offshore
Friday. Temps will be near climatology with highs in the low/mid
50s and lows in the low/mid 30s inland. Coastal sections will
be cooler with highs mainly in the mid/upper 40s and lows in the
mid to upper 30s.
Saturday through Monday...the upper ridge and sfc high pressure
continues to slide eastward Saturday as an upper trough and sfc
cold front approach the region from the west. 00z European model (ecmwf) and
CMC remain in good agreement with the strength of the upper
trough and timing of the frontal system, albeit a little slower
than yesterday, but the last few runs of the GFS continues to
show a less amplified trough with faster timing and a much drier
solution. Due to the model differences leading to some
uncertainty, continue to limit pops in the chance range at this
time but am hedging to European model (ecmwf)/CMC solutions. With that in mind,
could see a few warm air advection showers Saturday night into early Sunday
as increasing southerly flow brings increasing moisture across
the region but expect best forcing for ascent to occur Sunday
night as the region will be in the right front quadrant of the
upper jet. Preferred models continue to indicate a high shear
environment but little to no instability with Li's remaining
positive. The front is progged to push offshore by early Monday
morning with lingering showers through the morning. Southerly
flow bring warmer temps Saturday and Sunday with highs climbing
into the mid 60s inland to mid 50s to around 60 along the
coast with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Temps drop back to near
normal behind the front Monday with highs expected in the 50s.
Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/...
short term /through Wednesday afternoon/
as of 310 PM Tue...currently, a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions
across the taf sites. Conditions will improve completely to VFR
around 20/21z today, but before a brief moment of MVFR ceiling
and quick shower to occur at each taf site; have indicated a
tempo for each taf site for the timing. Expect skies to clear
skies to continue through Wednesday. Winds will remain gusty,
especially after the last line of showers, as there are
observational reports of winds gusting to 35 knots. Winds will
diminish early this evening to west northwest around 5 knots,
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...pred-VFR expected through the long term
as high pressure builds into the region for the latter half of
the week. Will see increasing clouds Saturday ahead of the next
frontal system approaching the region but expect cigs to remain
VFR at this time.
short term /through tonight/...
as of 310 PM Tue...dense fog advisory is ongoing for all
coastal waters, sounds, and tidal rivers through this evening
with warm air overriding cold waters and reducing visibilities
to less than 1 nm. The Gale Warning has been dropped except for
the coastal waters from Cape Hatteras to Hatteras Inlet, which
now expires at 8 PM. Small craft advisories for the tidal rivers
and sounds now are extended through 8 PM as well.
The cold front is expected to cross the area late this evening
with winds shifting to west at 15-20 kts. By Wednesday morning
winds will be northwest 10-15 kts, and will remain mostly steady
through the day. Seas are currently 6-10 ft, and begin to drop
off this evening. Seas will be 4-6 ft by early Wednesday
morning, and then 2-4 ft for the rest of Wednesday.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...expect west/northwest winds around 10-20 kt with
seas around 3-5 ft Wednesday morning. Winds diminish to 5-15 kt
with seas around 2-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. A mid level
disturbance and sfc trough move across the region Wednesday
night that will serve to increase wind back to 10-20 kt into
Thursday morning before becoming north around 5-15 kt Thursday
afternoon. Nly winds less than 15 kt Thursday night into Friday
gradually veer to easterly by late Friday with seas around 2-3
ft. Southeast winds increase to 10-15 kt Saturday with seas building to
2-4 ft late in the day head of an approaching frontal system.
Marine...dense fog advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for amz130-131-
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for amz130-
Gale Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for amz154.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 am EST Wednesday for amz152-156-
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for amz150.