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fxus62 kmhx 292307 
afdmhx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
707 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure over the Atlantic will continue through the
Sunday producing near record highs over eastern North
Carolina. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and
cross eastern NC Tuesday morning. High pressure will build in
behind the front Wednesday. A strong and slow moving low
pressure area will affect the region late next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
as of 7 PM PM Sat...warm and muggy night on tap again across east
NC as SW breezes keep pumping in the unseasonably warm
temperatures with lows generally upper 60s interior to low 70s
coast. Mostly clear skies may increase in coverage just like
last night with sct/bkn low clouds developing. May be some sea
fog yet again esp north of Hatteras where waters are cooler.

&&

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through 6 PM Sunday/...
as of 315 PM Sat...flow regime will be unchanged for the most
part on Sunday, so another very warm day on tap with some near
record highs (climate sxn below). Perhaps a degree or so cooler
than Sat as low level thicknesses just a tick lower. No precip
chances as high pres will be strong sfc and aloft.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/...
as of 345 PM Saturday...models remain in decent agreement
through mid week with progressive upper low moving from plains
into Great Lakes breaking down upper ridge over southeast US Sunday
night into Tuesday, followed by zonal flow Wednesday. The flow
will become more amplified late next week with the models
indicating the potential for a strong upper low to affect the
southeast and mid Atlantic states. There is much uncertainty
regarding details with this system but there is a potential for
heavy rain and possibly severe weather Thu/Fri.

Sunday night...ridging surface and aloft will result in another
warm night with lows mid 60s to around 70. Nam12 does indicate
possible scattered light shower threat with southerly flow
overnight which is in line with synoptic climo profiles of
showers along coast as front moves into eastern Tennessee. However,
other models are dry and will not intro pops at this time.

Monday through Wednesday...a cold front will approach from the
west late Mon and slowly cross the region Mon night into early Tue.
Temps remain warm Mon with a low chc of some convection espcly
inland during the aftn as the front approaches. Most models
continue to indicate a decent coverage of precipitation Mon
night/early Tue and will continue likely pops this period. European model (ecmwf)
had trended dry with 00z run but showing good coverage again
with 12z run, thus continued confidence in higher pops.
Lingering shra ends from west to east Tue morning with the front
sliding offshore. Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s
then cool into the mid 70s to around 80 Tue behind the front.
High pressure is forecast to build into the area Tue night and
Wed with dry weather and temps moderating into the low 80s
inland.

Thursday through Saturday...12z European model (ecmwf) has come back in line with
GFS indicating upper low cutting off near Gulf Coast Thursday-
Friday and then slowly moving across southeast US into weekend. Other
models continue to indicate more progressive solution, thus a
low confidence forecast. Uncertainty on details this far out
but there is a potential for heavy rain and/or severe weather
Thu night and Fri. Will indicate a continued threat of
showers/tstms into Saturday. Cooler temp trend is more likely
with either solution. Highs still around 80 thrusday and then in
70s Friday-Saturday.

&&

Aviation /23z Saturday through Thursday/...
short term /through 18z Sunday/...
as of 7 PM Sat...winds will become light tonight with sct/bkn
MVFR cigs developing yet again as fcst will be based on
persistence from last night. No fog expected as bndry layer will
remain somewhat mixed due to the 4-7 kt winds overnight. Skies
become mostly sunny on Sunday with another dry day on tap with
SW winds 10-15 kt.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 340 PM Saturday...VFR expected to prevail through Monday
with enough nocturnal mixing to preclude fog development. A cold
front will be moving across the area Mon night into early Tue
with better coverage of shra and storms with periods of sub VFR
conditions possible. High pressure builds in behind the front
late Tue through Wed with a return to prevailing VFR conditions.
Some sub-VFR possible with possible shra and tstms developing
Thursday.

&&

Marine...
short term /through Sunday/...
as 7 PM Sat...S to SW winds of 10-20 knots will continue as
sprawling Bermuda high pressure remains anchored offshore. Seas
will be 2-4 ft through Sunday with a wind dominated periodicity
around 5 seconds.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 340 PM Saturday...moderate SW flow of 10-20 kts with seas
around 3-5 ft expected thru Sun night around offshore high
pressure. An approaching cold front will increase SW winds to
20-30 kt Mon through early Tue with low end gales possible
central waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-11 ft by late
Mon/Mon night into early Tue. SW winds diminish to 10-20 kt Tue,
briefly become northwest around 5-15 kt late Tue night, then back to
southerly 10 kt Wed. Seas slowly subside Tue and Tue night,
dropping below 6 ft late Tue night and to 2 to 4 ft Wed.
SW winds will increase to 20-25 knots ahead of cold front Thursday
with seas building again to 4-6 feet.

&&

Hydrology...
as of 3 PM Sat...the Tar River in Greenville is expected to
reach moderate flooding, while Contentnea Creek in Hookerton is
in major flood stage. The Neuse River in Kinston is now at minor
flood stage, and is forecast to increase further to major flood
stage next week. The NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin forecast
remains in minor flooding. The Roanoke River is forecast to rise
over the next several days due to increased flow out of Kerr
dam but is expected to remain below flood stage. Additional
rainfall forecast for Monday night into Tuesday is not expected
to have a significant impact on the high water levels.

&&

Climate...
record highs are possible Sunday with an extremely warm air
mass over eastern NC.

Record high temperatures for 04/30
---------------------------
location temperature/year
New Bern 91/1974 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 84/1974 (khse asos)
Greenville 92/1957 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 86/1957 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 94/1906 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 90/1987 (knca awos)

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$

Synopsis...tl
near term...hsa/tl
short term...tl
long term...jbm

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