Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 230333
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1033 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018
a cold front will approach from the west tonight and move
through the area Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the
west late in the week and pass offshore over the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 1000 PM Monday...adjusted hourly temp trends to indicate
rising trend overnight most areas. Rest of forecast on track
with slight chance pops into overnight then increasing near
morning. Warm advection and southerly winds starting to develop
and most guidance indicates steady or rising temps rest of
As of 210 PM Mon...increasing S winds tonight as cold front
approaches from the west. Radar shows batch of shra to the SW that
will impact srn CST next few hrs if hold together. Overnight
moisture will grad increase with chc of shra developing late
espcly well inland. Combo of srly flow and clouds will lead to
very mild lows in the 50s.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
as of 210 PM Mon...a robust frontal system approaches the region
in the morning and is progged to push across the region during
the afternoon. Still expecting a high shear/Low Cape scenario
with models indicating 0-6km bulk shear up to around 70kt but
very little cape per the GFS/European model (ecmwf) while the NAM has a little
higher cape values to around 500 j/kg. Cannot rule out an
isolated storm bringing strong wind gusts but with better
forcing for ascent displaced to the north with moist profiles
expect the overall severe threat to be minimal at this time.
Models are not bringing much qpf with this system with precip
amount around a quarter inch. Rapid drying expected to develop
from west to east in the afternoon as deeper moisture slides
offshore. Continued very mild with highs in the lower 70s inland
but cooler water temps will hold temps in the low to mid 60s
along the coast.
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
as of 3 am Monday...high pressure building in will bring dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures Tuesday night through
Friday. A warming trend will occur this weekend with another
threat for showers Saturday night and Sunday.
Tuesday night through Friday..broad upper troughing continues
across the eastern Continental U.S. With high pressure across the southern
Southern Plains Wednesday. A mid level disturbance and sfc
trough pushes across the region late Wednesday/Wednesday night
and could see a few more clouds across the region but the
airmass remains very dry with precipitable water values only around a third of
an inch and don't expect any precipitation. Will see height
rises across the region Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge
builds into the region keeping dry conditions. Sfc high pressure
builds in from the west Thursday and begins to push offshore
Friday. Temps will be near climatology with highs in the low/mid
50s and lows in the low/mid 30s. Coastal sections will be
cooler with highs mainly in the mid/upper 40s and lows in the
mid to upper 30s.
Saturday through Sunday...the upper ridge and sfc high pressure
continues to slide eastward Saturday as a robust upper trough
and sfc cold front approach the region from the west. Could see
a few warm air advection showers Saturday night as increasing southerly flow
brings increasing moisture across the region but models
depicting best forcing for ascent to occur Sunday into Sunday
evening. At this time, models indicating another high shear
environment but even less instability than tuesday's event with
Li's remaining positive. Southerly flow bring warmer temps with
highs climbing into the 60s inland to mid 50s to around 60 along
Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through 00z Wed/...
as of 700 PM Monday...VFR conditions expected to persist through
evening hours with only isolated light shower threat. Increasing
southerly flow ahead of approaching cold front expected to
result in lowering cigs overnight. Adjusted forecast based on
latest guidance to indicate low end of MVFR with some potential
for period of IFR. Scattered to broken coverage of mainly light
showers expected to spread in from west 10z-13z and progress
across area through 18z-21z. Conditions then improving to VFR
with frontal passage.
Light southerly flow through tonight, then increasing 10-15
with gusts to 20 knots Tuesday after 13z.
Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
as of 330 am Monday...pred-VFR expected Tuesday night through
Friday as high pressure builds into the region for the latter
half of the week.
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 1000 PM Monday...no significant changes with upate.
As of 210 PM Mon...srly winds will grad ramp up tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front. Expect winds to reach 15 to 20 kts
by 06z and 20 to 25 kts by morning. The south-southwest winds will peak Tue
just ahead of front with winds 20 to 30 kts and frequent gusts
aoa 35 kts expected central wtrs espcly beyond 10 miles where
enhanced mixing expected near warmer SST. The increasing winds
will lead to seas building to 5 to 7 feet by early Tue morning
and peaking at 9 to 11 feet central wtrs in the aftn. Have
upgraded the waters between Oregon Inlet and Cape Lookout to
Gale Warning for Tue where higher gusts expected. Also added
Albemarle Sound/Alligator river and the inland rivers to the Small Craft Advisory
Tue where expect at least some gusts aoa 25 kts.
Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
as of 330 am Monday...the front pushes across the waters late
Tuesday with winds becoming west/northwest around 10-20 kt Tuesday night
and early Wednesday with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft Wednesday
morning. Winds diminish 5-15 kt Wednesday afternoon but a mid
level disturbance and sfc trough move across the region
Wednesday night that will serve to increase wind back to 10-20
kt into Thursday morning before becoming north around 5-15 kt
Thursday afternoon. Nly winds less than 15 kt Friday gradually
veer to easterly by late in the day with seas around 2-3 ft.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 9 am to 5 PM EST Tuesday for amz130-
Small Craft Advisory from 8 am to 6 PM EST Tuesday for amz135.
Gale Warning from 9 am to 5 PM EST Tuesday for amz152-154-156.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 am Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday
night for amz150.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 3 am EST Wednesday