Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 260459
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1259 am EDT Wed Jul 26 2017
a weak cold front has pushed south through the area late tonight.
High pressure will extend over the area from the north
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another cold front will move in
from the northwest Friday and Saturday and then stall just off
the coast Sunday into Monday.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1255 am Wednesday...looks like the cold front has just
slipped south of the area late this evening with a NE flow of
cooler/drier air filtering into the area behind it. Not seeing
any returns on radar but will keep a minimal 20% (slight chance)
pop across the far south to account for the risk of a few pop
up showers through 12z as indicated in the hrrr. Expect clouds
to mostly dissipate overnight with some patchy stratocumulus
lingering in the NE low level flow. Min temps are forecast to
drop into upper 60s north to lower 70s south.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM today/...
as of 300 PM Tuesday...models have trended drier for most of
area but NAM and European model (ecmwf) still indicate isolated activity possible
over southern sections where sea breeze may try to build against
north-NE winds and have kept low chance pop there. Max temps
noticeably cooler with highs around 80 northern obx to 85-88
southern sections, and dew points dropping to 65-70.
Long term /tonight through Tuesday/...
as of 345 PM Tuesday... drier conditions Wednesday night into
Thursday as high pressure builds in. A cold front will approach
the region Friday and cross Saturday bringing a good chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the region. The front will
stall along or off the coast through the weekend and into early
Wednesday night through Thursday night... conditions continue to
look dry for Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds in
from the north. At the same time, a significant cold front and
shortwave located over the Midwest/Ohio Valley drops down with a sfc
low developing and moving into the mid-Atlantic region. Models keep
the area dry on Thursday, but could see a few showers develop along
the coast and may also see storms move in from the west as upper
level dynamics improve with the approaching shortwave late Thursday
night. Highs expected near 90 inland to mid 80s along the coast with
lows mainly in the mid 70s inland to upper 70s coast.
Friday through Tuesday... models have not been consistent with
timing of system moving into the area as well as how far the
front will push offshore this weekend, therefore confidence is
low. At this time went with wpc guidance and have the cold front
(and significant shortwave associated with it) to move across
the region Friday into Saturday while low pressure moves off the
mid-Atlantic coast Friday with the trailing cold front progged
to move across the area Saturday. Descent instability and shear
expected to exist across the region ahead of the front Friday
with favorable upper level dynamics and could see strong to
severe storms across the region. The front is forecast to stall
offshore late Saturday into Sunday but then move back toward the
coast early next week. An upper trough will persist across the
East Coast into early next week as well with the axis west of
the area with S/SW flow lifting abundant moisture across the
Strong SW flow persists Friday ahead of the front bringing warm
temps with highs in the lower 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the
coast. Temps a few degrees below normal expected this weekend into
early next week with highs generally in the mid 80s but onshore flow
may hold the northern obx in the lower 80s.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through Wednesday night/...
as of 1255 am Wednesday...lingering stratocumulus clouds in the
moist low level NE flow will keep a threat for periodic MVFR
ceilings through about 9z then expecting drier air to help
dissipate sub VFR cloud threat through Wednesday as high
pressure builds over the area with any cloud bases expected to
be >3k ft. Late Wednesday night winds are forecast to decouple
and the resulting strong radiational cooling should lead to
patchy fog development with sub VFR conditions possible after
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 345 PM Tuesday...mainly VFR conditions for Thursday as
drier conditions are expected, but cannot rule the possible sub-
VFR Wednesday late night to early morning Thursday. A cold front
will move into the region Friday and Saturday which will bring
showers and thunderstorms with periods of sub-VFR conditions.
short term /through Wednesday/...
as of 1255 am Wednesday...a Post frontal NE surge behind the
cold front will continue overnight, highest over the central and
southern waters in best pressure gradient as high pressure
builds over the waters. Similar conditions should persist
through Wednesday with seas 3 to 4 feet.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 345 Tuesday... high pressure will build into the area
from the north Wednesday night and Thursday with winds
diminishing to 10 kt or less late Wednesday night and veering to
southeast to S Thursday afternoon with seas around 2-3 ft. A cold
front will approach from the northwest Friday with winds becoming SW
around 10-15 kt Thursday night and 15-25 kt Friday into Friday
night with seas expected to build to 3-6 ft. Models continue to
differ with the strength of the SW winds, but there is a good
chance Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop across portions of our waters
Friday and continuing through Friday night. The front is
forecasted to move offshore Saturday with a NE surge 10- 20
knots developing and sea 3-5 ft continuing through Sunday.