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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
308 am EST Mon Jan 16 2017

high pressure will continue to extend over the area from the
north today then slide off the coast tonight and Tuesday. A warm
front will move north through the region on Tuesday. It will be
followed by a cold front which will move through late Wednesday.
High pressure will build over the area Thursday. A warm front will
move north across the area Friday, then a cold front will cross
the area Friday night. High pressure will build over the
Saturday, then another area of low pressure will approach Sunday.


Near term /through today/...
as of 230 am Mon...latest sfc analysis shows 1031mb high pressure
centered over the mid-Atlantic extending southward into the
Carolinas. High pressure will continue to build southward today
before slowly shifting eastward in-situ damming
continues across the region. Latest radar imagery shows area of
light rain/drizzle across much of the area early this
morning...associated with a weak disturbance to the north moving
through the flow aloft and increasing warm air advection aloft. Will continue
chance pops for most locations early this morning, then tapering
off to slight chance by late morning and afternoon. Little
coverage expected late morning and afternoon with limited forcing.
Very light quantitative precipitation forecast amounts expected. Low level thickness values and
widespread cloud cover support highs in the upper 40s to mid
50s...warmest along the southern coast.


Short term /tonight/...
as of 230 am Mon...high pressure extending over the area from the
north will gradually slide off the coast tonight as weak coastal
trough strengthens slightly. Will continue SC rain along the
coast in response to enhanced convergence near the trough. Think
widespread cloud cover should limit fog develop overnight, though
bl will remain moist and winds will likely could see
some patchy fog develop inland. Overnight lows in the 40s.


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 305 am Monday...temps warm well above normal Tuesday and
Wednesday, then remain slightly above normal Thursday through the
weekend. The precipitation forecast is starting to come into focus
as the 00z models are in better agreement. It now looks like
Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday should be mainly dry with wet
weather expected Wednesday, Friday and Sunday.

Tuesday through Sunday...high pressure will shift off the coast
Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west late. Warm SW
return develops across the area Tuesday and continues into
Wednesday ahead of the front. Forcing is weak, but the northward
passage of a warm front across the area Tuesday combined with
marginal moisture will lead to a risk for isolated afternoon
showers. Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the passage of
significant shortwave across the mid Atlantic which will push a
surface cold front across the area with the best chance for
widespread showers and perhaps a thunderstorm and pops will be
increased to likely. Well above normal temps are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday in the prefrontal SW flow with highs around 70 both
days. Temps could be warmer if there is more insolation than is
currently expected.

Sunday into early next a stronger area of low pressure will
affect the area with showers redeveloping across the area. Heavy
rain and possible thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into
Monday as the system moves across the area. Temperatures are
expected to remain mild with highs in the 60s expected both days.


Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 115 am Mon...expect mainly VFR conditions through most of
tonight, though cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR cigs early
this morning as some moisture is trapped below a strong low level
inversion. However, guidance has been much too pessimistic the
last several days and overdone developing sub-VFR conditions. At
this time think the best chance for MVFR ceilings will be this
afternoon, though will keep pred VFR for now. Areas of light rain
and drizzle will continue this morning, and should be tapering off
later today. Better chances for sub-VFR to develop overnight with
good low level moisture, and light veering winds. Could see some
patchy fog develop.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 305 am Monday...sub-VFR conditions could occur Tuesday in a
surface in-situ damming pattern. Scattered to numerous showers are
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with sub VFR conditions.
Drier northwest flow Thursday should lead to prevailing VFR conditions.
Scattered to numerous showers are again possible Friday with sub
VFR conditions.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 230 am Mon...latest obs show north/NE winds 10-15 kt north of
Hatteras and 15-20 kt south of Hatteras, with seas 3-4 feet. High
pressure will continue to extend over the waters from the north
today, then gradually slide offshore tonight. Gusts to 20 kt south
of Hatteras likely through late morning/early afternoon. Winds
should diminish to 5-15 kt this afternoon, further diminishing to
5-10 kt overnight with seas subsiding to 1-3 feet.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 305 am Monday...the passage of a cold front is expected to
produce Small Craft Advisory conditions late Tuesday night through Wednesday,
otherwise conditions will remain below advisory levels this
period. Tuesday light northerly winds will become light south
with 1 to 3 ft seas expected. Winds will become SW and increase
to 15 to 25 kt late Tuesday night and continue through late
Wednesday with seas building to 4 to 6 ft Wed/Wed night over the
outer southern and central waters and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Winds
are then forecast to shift to northwest 10-20 kt behind the front Wed
night and Thu with 3-5 ft seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft Thu.
Light/variable winds are expected Thursday night, then winds are
expected to become S/southeast Friday and increase to 10 to 20 kt late
with seas building from 1 to 3 ft Thursday night to 2 to 4 ft
late Friday.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...



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