Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kmhx 111655 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1155 am EST Mon Dec 11 2017

high pressure will build south of the region today. Two dry
cold fronts will cross the area this week, the first one
Tuesday, the second one Thursday night.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 925 am Monday...latest sfc analysis continues to show high
pressure building over the area from the south...leading to
clear skies and light winds. A chilly start this morning, but
temperatures will gradually increase as westerly winds at 850mb
will allow for temps to reach into the low to mid 50s today. No
other changes to this update.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Tuesday/...
as of 230 am Monday...a dry cold front will approach from the
west late. Initially light winds/clear skies early will lead to
strong radiational cooling and rapidly falling evening
temperatures. Then late tonight as the front approaches winds
could increase late as the pressure gradient tightens. Thus low
temps could occur around midnight with steady or slowly rising
temps late.


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 300 am Mon...another shot of Arctic air will surge in Tue
night and Wed as upper trof crosses the region. Models are dry
with limited moisture so no precip expected. Very cold Wed with
lows in the mid 20s inland to low 30s coast and highs mainly
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Another front moves through late in the week. Timing of this
feature much in question. HPC surface prog has it passing
through Thursday. However, the latest run of both the GFS and
the European model (ecmwf) are much slower with it, bringing it through Fri
afternoon. Because of this, I will continue the dry forecast for
late week as moisture still appears limited. The weekend looks
dry with high pressure building into the region from the

Highs Thu upper 40s to lower 50s and mostly lower/mid 50s Fri
and upper 40s to lower 50s Sat. Temps moderate a bit Sunday with
highs in the mid/upper 50s.


Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
short term /through Tuesday afternoon/...
as of 1155 am Monday...VFR conditions are expected this
afternoon through Tuesday. A dry cold front will bring a wind
shift Tuesday, but VFR conditions and light winds will

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 300 am Mon...VFR/dry weather expected with partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 925 am Monday...the latest buoy obs are showing west-southwest winds
5-15 knots and seas 1-3 ft. No changes were done to the marine
forecast with this update.

Prev. Dis...Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to
develop late tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the
west thus advisories have been issued for all of the near shore
waters and the Pamlico Sound. Through this morning westerly
winds 15 to 20 kt will diminish to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon and
evening as high pressure to south builds over the waters. Then
late tonight (after midnight) the pressure gradient will tighten
as the cold front approaches causing winds to increase to SW 15
to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft this morning will subside to 2 to 3 ft
late this afternoon and evening then build to 4 to 7 ft toward
Tuesday morning.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 300 am Mon...the long term will feature mostly poor
boating conditions for the coastal waters and sounds. Two dry
fronts will pass through the area, one on Tuesday and the other
on Thursday.

The flow will be westerly through the period, with the strongest
winds Tuesday into Wednesday at 20-30 knots on the coastal
waters and Pamlico Sound. Small craft advisories are now in
effect for those zones. A few gusts to gale force will be
possible Tuesday and Tuesday night on the coastal waters.

Winds Thursday and Friday will average 10-20 knots, with 20-25
knots possible from Hatteras to Ocracoke on Friday.

Seas on the coastal waters will be highest Tuesday and Tuesday
night, averaging 5-9 feet. Seas will remain elevated for the
remainder of the period, with small craft conditions continuing
through the end of the week for most of the coastal waters.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday
for amz135-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 7 PM EST Friday for
Small Craft Advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 5 PM EST Wednesday
for amz156-158.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations