Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 am EST Tue Dec 6 2016
low pressure will lift northeast across the area today then move
offshore tonight and Wednesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Thursday, followed by cold high pressure Friday into
Saturday. The high will move offshore Sunday with a cold front
approaching from the west Monday.
Near term /today/...
as of 7 am Tue...latest analysis shows 1002mb low over MS/Alabama with
weak front draped through the southeast US...and 1021mb high pressure
centered over eastern PA/NJ. Classic Miller type-b scenario
expected today, as primary surface low over the Gulf states moves
into the Tennessee Valley and induces cyclogenesis along the southeast coast.
Secondary surface low is forecast develop this morning and move
across coastal NC this afternoon, and offshore this evening.
Latest radar imagery shows light rain overspreading the area...and
expect coverage and intensity to increase, becoming moderate to
heavy at times through this afternoon. Widespread rainfall
0.75-1.5" is likely, with locally higher amounts and minor local
flooding possible. Precipitable water values values currently around 1.5", will
climb to around 1.75" this afternoon, which is well above normal
for early December...a possible daily Max. An isolated tstm will
be possible along the coast this afternoon, given the strong
shear. However, instability still looks to be limited, with
forecast soundings showing Max mu cape values 300 j/kg. Given the
widespread cloud cover and precip, will keep mention mainly across
the waters at this time. Gusty winds along the coast today with
gusts 20-30 miles per hour. Highs today ranging from the 50s inland to
low/mid 60s along the coast.
Short term /tonight/...
as of 7 am Tue...surface low will strengthen and move off the
coast tonight...with precip ending from SW to NE this evening.
However forecast soundings and guidance keep widespread low
stratus locked on over the area. Some patchy fog will be possible
overnight, given the rainfall and moist bl. Gusty west/northwest winds will
develop on the backside of the low tonight, with gusts 25-30 miles per hour
along the coast. Overnight lows dropping into the low 40s inland
and upper 40s/50 degrees along the coast.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 215 am Tue...a cold front will cross late Thu with coldest
air of the season expected Fri into Sat. Temps moderate Sunday
into early next week with a chance of showers developing.
Wed and Wed night...dry with seasonal temps as high pres to the west
extends into the area. Highs Wed upr 50s to around 60 with lows
Wed night lower 40s inland to upr 40s/around 50 obx.
Thu through Sat night...cold front with limited moisture will
cross late Thu/Thu evening cont slight chc shra with front. High
temps ahead of front Thu will be in the upr 50s to lower 60s. Main
story will be cold air assoc with strong high pres building in
behind front Fri thru Sat...highs both days mainly low to mid 40s
with lows Fri night and Sat night reaching couple dgrs either side
of 25 inland to lower/mid 30s beaches.
Sunday through Mon...as the high begins to slide offshore Sunday
and hgts aloft rise temps will increase with high mainly mid 50s
to near 60. Cold front will be approaching from the west Monday
and moisture increases with chc of shra and mild highs mainly in
the lower 60s.
Aviation /11z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Tue...mixed bag of IFR/MVFR conditions currently with
light rain across the area. Conditions will continue to gradually
deteriorate this morning, with ceilings becoming IFR to possibly
LIFR and persisting into tonight. An area of low pressure in the
Gulf states will approach from the SW and move across area this
afternoon. Rain will continue to overspread the region this
morning, becoming moderate to heavy at times. Expect rain to taper
off from SW to NE this afternoon...with a rapid wind shift likely
from easterly to west/northwest. Forecast soundings and numerical
guidance show that when ceilings go down to IFR, or LIFR, they
will likely stay down through tonight. Brief period of low level
wind shear possible this afternoon, though did not include in the
tafs at this time given the expected short duration. Patchy fog
also possible overnight with rainfall and moist boundary layer.
Long term /Wed through Sat/...
as of 215 am Tue...any lingering low clouds early Wed shld grad
lift/dissipate with VFR returning. Could again see some sub VFR
cigs Wed night as lower lvls remain moist ahead of cold front.
Front will cross later Thu...however limited moisture and expect
only light wdly sct shra with mainly VFR Thu. Strong/cold high
pres with very dry air builds in Thu night thru Sat with VFR and
mainly clr skies. Northwest winds will likely be a bit gusty Thu night
short term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Tue...latest obs show NE/east winds 15-25 kt, slightly
stronger across the southern waters with gusts to 30 kt, and seas
4-7 feet. Low pressure currently over the Gulf states is forecast
to lift NE today and move along the NC coast this afternoon and
evening, before moving offshore tonight...with conditions
deteriorating through the day. Challenging forecast today with the
low over the area, with respect to the wind direction/speeds. Small Craft Advisory
in effect for the coastal waters, sounds and Alligator river,
beginning this morning through tonight. East winds 15-25 kt continue
this morning, becoming more southeast/SW this afternoon then west/northwest
tonight. Could see brief lulls, esp across the sounds as low moves
overhead. Winds will shift quickly behind the low this evening,
with the strongest winds likely on the backside of the departing
low tonight. Could see a few gusts to 35 kt, but at this time
expect strong Small Craft Advisory conditions. Seas will quickly build through the
day, peaking at 5-9 feet.
Long term /Wed through Sat/...
as of 215 am Tue...north-northwest winds will be gusty first part of Wed with
low offshore and high pres to the west. This will keep seas elevated
at 5 to 6 feet outer central and northern waters with Small Craft Advisory into Wed
aftn. Winds subside and seas diminish to 2 to 4 ft Wed night into
early Thu then gusty northwest winds develop behind cold front Thu
evening into Fri. Small Craft Advisory a good bet most waters Thu night into Fri
morn with seas reaching 6 to poss 7 feet outer waters. As the high
builds closer Fri night into Sat winds will slowly diminish and
seas will subside to 3 to 5 feet Fri night and 2 to 3 feet by late
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EST Wednesday for amz130-131-
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for amz150-152-
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST Wednesday for amz156-158.