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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
702 am EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

a hot and humid airmass will remain over the region through
this weekend. The remnants of tropical cyclone Cindy will pass
well to the north on Saturday. A tropically enhanced cold front
will move very slowly through eastern NC Saturday and Sunday,
before pushing just south of the area Monday night and early
Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday
through late next week.


Near term /today/...
as of 7 am Fri...latest sfc analysis shows high pressure
anchored off the southeast coast and dew point Cindy over Arkansas this
morning. Hot and breezy today as southwesterly flow begins to
increase as remnants of Cindy move eastward into the Ohio River
valley. Latest radar imagery shows light scattered showers
across central and eastern NC, associated with an upper level
shortwave. Scattered showers through about 15z this morning,
with little precip chances after. An isolated seabreeze
shower/storm possible this afternoon/early evening, but coverage
looks limited with better chances south of our forecast area.
Airmass begins to dry out in the mid levels this afternoon with
precipitable water values dropping to about 1.75". Low level thickness values
and SW flow support highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Combined
with dewpoints in the 70s heat index values will be around 100
deg this afternoon.


Short term /Saturday/...
as of 3 am Fri...frontal boundary and Cindy remnants will
approach from the west overnight, but expect area to remain pred
dry. Warm and muggy with lows in the mid/upper 70s.


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 330 am Friday...deep moisture associated with the remnants
of Tropical Storm Cindy, coupled with an approaching cold front
will lead to a wet weekend across eastern NC. Drier and somewhat
cooler air will overspread the region behind a fairly strong
Summer cold front for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

Saturday through Monday...deep moisture with precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches, associated with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Cindy tracking to our north and an approaching
cold front from the northwest, will lead to a rather wet weekend
across eastern NC. Instability will be greatest Saturday
afternoon and evening and Storm Prediction Center has a marginal threat of severe
weather across the region during this time frame. Heavy rain
will be the main threat, especially near the coast during this
time. As the initial front edges offshore, the atmosphere
becomes more stable and the rain will be confined to near the
coast or just offshore. With warm SW winds ahead of the main
area of precipitation on Saturday, high temperatures will be
into the low to perhaps mid 90s inland with mid to upper 80s
coast. Cooler with more clouds and precipitation on Sunday with
most areas in the mid/upper 80s, then cooler still for Monday
with highs mostly in the lower 80s with cloudy skies.

Monday night through Thursday...the primary cold front should
move offshore late Monday night or early Tuesday morning leading
to a period of pleasant weather for this time of year. Some
model differences with the European model (ecmwf) still holding more moisture in
the area, but this seems overdone, and will go with the drier
GFS solution with minimal pops from Monday night through late
week. Dewpoints will drop into the mid/upper 50s inland and
lower 60s inland as daytime highs range in the 80s and pleasant
overnight lows in the upper 50s inland and low/mid 60s coast
through the period.


Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Fri...mixed bag of MVFR and IFR this morning, mainly
in low stratus. Sub-VFR likely to persist through about 15z,
then lifting to VFR. Scattered light showers this morning,with
best chances at pgv/iso. Isolated showers/tstm possible this
afternoon. Breezy SW winds this afternoon with gusts to 20kt.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 345 am Friday...a moist unstable airmass will lead to
widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through
Sunday with periods of MVFR and perhaps IFR ceilings and vsbys.
Most precipitation should be east of the taf sites by later
Sunday night with high pressure building in behind a cold front
early next week. As usual, patchy late night/early morning fog
will be possible, especially in areas that receive rainfall.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Fri...latest obs show SW winds 5-15kt and seas 2-4
ft this morning. Conditions will gradually deteriorate this
afternoon and evening, as pressure gradient tightens between the
remnants of Cindy passing to the west and high pressure off the
coast. Southwest winds will increase to 15-25 kt with seas
building to 4-6 feet. Winds and seas will peak overnight. Small Craft Advisory
continues for the waters and Pamlico Sound. Could see some gusts
to 25 kt for the Albemarle Sound as well. Nwps and wavewatch
have seas peaking at 4-8 feet tonight.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 350 am Friday...gusty SW winds of 15-25 knots will
continue Saturday and Saturday night with rough seas building to
as high as 7-9 feet over the coastal waters. Winds veer to more
west/northwest behind an initial cold front and diminish by late Saturday
night and early Sunday and seas drop off to 3-5 feet by Sunday
afternoon. A stronger secondary cold front moves across the
waters late Monday night or early Tuesday morning but wind
guidance does not indicate much of a surge behind this front
with winds generally under 15 knots and seas 2-4 feet for
Tuesday and Wednesday.


Tides/coastal flooding...
as of 3 am Fri...minor coastal flooding will be possible for
areas along the coast at times of high tide today through the
weekend, as King tide event peaks. Nuisance type flooding
possible with no significant inundation expected at this time.

Long period swells, that have been responsible for dangerous rip
currents over the past week or so, continue to subside and have
lowered all but the Cape Lookout to Bogue Inlet zone to a
moderate rip current threat today. For the Cape Lookout to Bogue
Inlet zone, lifeguard reports indicated strong rip currents
late yesterday and opted to keep this area in the high risk for
at least one more day.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
Saturday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 am EDT
Sunday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 am EDT
Sunday for amz156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
Saturday for amz150.


near term...cqd
short term...cqd

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