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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303 am EDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Synopsis...
an inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will
prevail through the week ahead. A weak cool front will approach
from the north Thursday, then remain stalled over the mid-
Atlantic region through Sunday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 300 am Monday...the hot and humid forecast continues as the
area remains under the influence of a strong upper ridge with
moist southerly flow across the area. Expect temperatures again to
reach highs in the mid 90s. Moist dewpoints in the afternoon can
be expected to again be in the 74 to near 80 degree range across
the area during peak heating. This is based off of a persistence
forecast from yesterdays values. The result will be heat index
values in the 105 to 109 range across the area during the
afternoon. Continued the heat advisory for the entire area except
Ocracoke Island (mainland Hyde county). Models continue to
indicate no convective development again today with subsidence
inversion likely keeping area capped.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Tuesday/...
as of 330 PM Sunday, expect another hot and humid night with lows
again in the mid 70s to around 80 degree range. Do not expect much
of a chance of any precipitation overnight.

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Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 3 am Mon...little day-to-day change seen throughout the
long term as heat wave continues. Axis of Bermuda high will
continue to extend into the southeast states with a warm humid
southwest flow. Piedmont trof will redevelop over the midstate
area Wednesday and continue into the weekend. Will maintain dry
forecast for today but with trof in place for the remainder of the
period will keep low chance diurnal pops each day. Slightly better
chance for area- wide pops this weekend as broad upper trof passes
by to the north. Dangerous heat index values will continue into
the weekend with daily highs in the lower to mid 90s inland. Only
a few degrees cooler on the Outer Banks with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

&&

Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through Monday/...
as of 115 am Monday...good aviation conditions expected through
the period with mostly VFR conditions expected. Continued to trend
with persistence given little/no change to airmass. Some patchy
sub-VFR fog will be possible overnight with mostly clear skies and
light winds, with best chances at oaj, similar to yesterday
morning. Sct diurnal cu expected to develop again Monday with
light SW winds.

Long term /Tue through Fri/
as of 3 am Mon...dry weather Tuesday, but scattered diurnal
convection possible Wednesday through Friday. Late night/early am
patchy fog possible each day. Winds SW 5-15 knots by day, around 5
knots each night.

&&

Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 300 am Monday, with little changing in the weather pattern,
a persistence forecast will continue. Southwest winds will
continue cycle of speeds around 10 knots this morning, then
increasing again this afternoon to around 15 kt with gusts to 20
through the evening, cycling back down towards Tuesday morning.
Seas seas will be about 2 to 3 feet with a few areas of 4 feet in
the central and northern waters possible during the evening hours.

Long term /Tue through Fri/
as of 3 am Mon...axis of Bermuda high will remain to the south
through the period. Very little change seen each day, with SW
winds 10-20 knots and seas 2-4 feet on the coastal waters, and
SW 5-15 knots on the adjacent sounds and rivers.



&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
evening for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...rsb
near term...rsb
short term...rsb
long term...hsa
aviation...rsb/hsa
marine...rsb/hsa

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