Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 190907
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
407 am EST sun Nov 19 2017
a strong cold front will move through the area early this
morning and move offshore by afternoon. High pressure will build
in tonight and Monday and then move offshore Tuesday. Low
pressure will move northeast near the coast early Wednesday and
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 330 am Sunday...strong cold front is on track to move
across area this morning, and enough guidance support to
indicate period of likely pops for showers moving across area
between 5 and 10 am. Gusty winds ahead of and behind front and
no change to Wind Advisory for Outer Banks and eastern portions
of of Carteret County. Temp forecast a bit problematic as
expect current mild reading to continue just past sunrise, then
will drop 5-10 degrees after frontal passage. Temps then likely
steady rest of day as insolation and downsloping west-northwest winds will
offset cold air advection. Thus most areas will see morning
highs from lower 60s inland to near 70 coast, then steady temps
in upper 50s to lower 60s late morning through afternoon.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Monday/...
as of 330 am Sunday...cold and dry air mass will continue to
spread in through the night. Lighter winds and better
radiational cooling conditions will allow temps to drop to lower
30s inland while breezy conditions will keep coast in low-mid
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
as of 230 am sun...high pressure moves in from the west Monday
then off the coast Tuesday. A cold front will move through
Wednesday morning and become stationary off the coast of the
southeast states. Areas of low pressure will move northeast
along the front Thanksgiving day into Friday.
Monday and Tuesday...high pressure will build in from the west
Monday and then move off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft
will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer
southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs
Monday will be in the lower to mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs
will reach the lower to mid 60s. Low temps will be in the lower
to mid 30s inland both Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to
upper 30s further east, and low to mid 40s along the coast.
Wednesday thru Friday...a cold front will move off the coast
Wednesday morning and stall over the offshore waters of the
southeast states. A few waves of low pressure will move
northeast along the front during this time. The best chance for
rain during this time will be mainly east of Highway 17 with
pops no higher than 40-50%
High temps will be in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday, and then
the lower to mid 50s Thursday and 55-60 Friday. Low temps Wed
will range from the upper 40s inland to the mid to upper 50s
along the South Coast and Outer Banks. Lows Thursday will be
around 40 on the coastal plain to 45-50 South Coast and obx.
Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s coastal
plain to mid/upper 40s South Coast and obx.
Saturday...the offshore front will move off to the east as a
deep upper trof sweeps in from the west. Highs will be around 60
after morning lows in the upper 30s inland, with upper 40s to
lower 50s Outer Banks.
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through 06z Monday/...
as of 100 am Sunday...high confidence that VFR conditions will
dominate most of the taf period, except for a brief period when
the cold front and associated Showers Pass through the area
between 08-12z when a 1-2 hour period of MVFR conditions will be
possible. Winds will increase tonight into Sunday with gusts up
to 30 knots and a chance of low level wind shear 35-40 knots to
occur. After the frontal passage, conditions will return back to
VFR with gusty northwest winds diminishing late.
Long term /Mon through Thu/
as of 230 am sun...VFR conditions forecast Monday and Tuesday.
Sub-VFR in light rain Wednesday and Thanksgiving day, with the
best chance at ewn and oaj. Only isolated activity at pgv and
short term /through tonight/...
as of 330 am Sunday...winds continue to increase ahead of strong
cold front and no change to gale warnings for coastal waters and
Pamlico Sound and Small Craft Advisory rest of waters. Winds will shift to northwest
behind the front with gusts to around 25 knots likely for Pamlico
Sound and outer waters into tonight.
Seas will build to 8-13 feet this morning, then subside this
afternoon but likely linger around 6 feet outer portions into
Long term /Mon through Thu/
as of 230 am sun...winds Monday morning will be northwest 15-20 kts,
subsiding to 10-15 kts in the afternoon. Winds Tuesday will be
south-southeast 5-10 kts. Another front will cross the waters Wednesday
morning, with winds becoming north 15-20 knots and continuing
through Thanksgiving day.
Seas will subside Monday as high pressure builds in from the
west, with seas on Tuesday only 1-2 feet. However, seas will
very quickly build to 5-8 feet north of Cape Lookout and 4-6
feet south following the passage of the cold front Wednesday
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for ncz095-103-104.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for