Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 291335
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
935 am EDT Thu Jun 29 2017
high pressure offshore is expected to remain steady through
early next week, with a Piedmont trough producing chances for
thunderstorms each day.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 930 am Thursday...just some minor tweaks to forecast
update this morning. Adjusted area of slight chance for showers
through mid morning over the southern coastal waters near Cape
Lookout. Area of showers should continue to diminish. Had a very
isolated area of dense fog and smoke develop this morning in
the Havelock area. This was likely a super fog event related to
smoke and fine particulates in the air from a prescribed burn
yesterday. The fog and smoke that is making for poor air quality
should mix out by around noon as the inversion Burns off and
Southeast flow will develop later today as high pressure settles in
off the coast. This will lead to an increase in dewpoints into
the lower to mid 60s. Highs will be in the mid/upper 80s inland,
with low 80s expected along the coast. Some patchy high based
cumulus clouds are possible this afternoon, but otherwise it
will be mostly clear.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
as of 645 am thurs...radiational cooling again will allow temps
to drop into the mid to low 60s again tonight. Closer to the
coast lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some scattered
showers will be approaching the region near sunrise Friday, but
should hold off until later Friday morning.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 415 PM Thursday...high pressure will shift off the coast
through the long term period with typical Summer pattern
developing. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are possible
beginning Friday through early next week.
Friday/Friday night...a weak short wave will move into the area
from the southwest during the day. Latest guidance continues to
indicate showers with some embedded thunder possible for mainly
the southern and western areas of the area. Will maintain the
low chance pops until additional guidance provides more
consistency on location, timing, and strength of the shortwave,
as precip chances may have to be raised for some areas with
subsequent forecasts. Shower/thunderstorm activity will shift to
the coast and coastal waters Friday night and maintained chance
pops along the coast for this. Low level thicknesses will build
to 1410-1415 meters, yielding Max temps in the upper 80s inland
with mid 80s for coastal areas.
Saturday through Monday...scattered showers/thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon through this period. Forecast pops based
on climo (20-40 percent), with interior areas seeing best
chances for scattered storms each afternoon and early evening,
then best chances along the coast and offshore during the
overnight periods. A weak front may aid shower and thunderstorm
development Sunday night into Monday, though this feature
currently appears too weak and subtle to indicate higher than
chance pops at this time. High temps will range from the low
90s inland to mid 80s near the coast, with lows 72 to 78,
coolest well inland and warmest on the beaches.
Tuesday through Thursday...a bit more uncertainty this period,
as European model (ecmwf) is indicating building heights/thicknesses which would
limit convection, while GFS/CMC are indicating a weakness in
the building ridge which may keep scattered showers/storms in
the forecast. Will maintain 20 pops for the area at the moment,
which is in line with European model (ecmwf) ensemble MOS probabilities.
Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through Friday morning/...
as of 700 am thurs...VFR conditions expected through most of
the taf period with exception of a period of MVFR fog likely to
develop early Friday morning. Although fog was very scattered
this morning, low level moisture will increase today, and
combined with another clear and calm night, will lead to more
widespread MVFR conditions. Otherwise, light east to southeast winds are
expected today under mostly sunny skies.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 410 am Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Some brief sub-VFR periods are possible each
day as some scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms may develop, and could see some periods of MVFR-
IFR fog/low stratus during the pre-dawn hours each morning.
short term /Thursday and Thursday night/...
as of 930 am Thursday...no changes with this update. High
pressure will have a strong influence over the NC coastal waters
through Thursday night. Winds will be out of the east less than 10
kts this morning, and will then become southeast this afternoon and
tonight increasing to 10-15 kts. Seas will mostly be 2-3 ft
across the coastal waters.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 405 am Thursday...fair boating conditions expected through
the long term as Bermuda high pressure will prevail offshore. This
will produce SW winds of 5-15 kt through the weekend into early
next week with seas mainly 2-3 ft, though some occasional 4 ft
seas will be possible for the outer portions of the central and
southern waters. Latest Swan and wavewatch guidance in good
agreement through the medium range with the GFS-based wavewatch
appearing reasonable for the extended period.