Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 272006
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
406 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
high pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
tonight. A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday
and move through early Wednesday. High pressure will build in
from the north late Wednesday into Thursday. A warm front will
move through from the southwest Friday. A cold front will move
through early Saturday.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 330 PM Monday...shortwave ridging will keep dry conditions
in warm sector this evening, then a more robust shortwave will
approach from the west late tonight with a slight chance of
showers over coastal plains by morning. SW winds and increasing
clouds late will keep min temps in mid to upper 50s.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
as of 330 PM Monday...models remain in good agreement with
shortwave moving across area ahead of cold front, producing
scattered shower/tstm threat through the day. Good instability
(sbcape values around 1500 j/kg and Li's around -5) supports
marginal threat of severe mainly mid to late afternoon. Kept
pops in 30-40% range with scattered coverage expected. Low level
thicknesses 1380-1385 meters support Max temps 75-80 inland
even with more cloud cover and scattered precip threat.
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
as of 300 PM Monday...most of the extend will be dry expect for
Friday as widespread rain will affect the region. Temperatures will
be near to above normal temperatures through the period.
Late Tuesday night through Thursday...showers will taper off late
Tuesday night from west to east. High pressure will build and extend
down from the north...bringing dry and cooler conditions through
Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday and Thursday.
Wednesday, expect highs in the low/mid 70s inland to low 60s along
the obx, then on Thursday, highs only in the lower 50s over the
northern Outer Banks to low/mid 60s elsewhere due to the influenced
of a northeasterly flow.
Thursday night through Friday...deep mid-level trough will dig into
the Southern Plains and develop a sfc low which will track into the
Ohio Valley/mid-Atlantic region Friday. A warm front will lift
north...allowing deep moisture to advect into the enc. This system
will bring widespread rain with forecast soundings showing pws over
an inch. Rain chances increase late Thursday night/early Friday
morning and continue through late Friday night. Highs will be in the
upper 60s/low 70s inland to 60s along the coast on Friday.
Saturday through Monday....after the frontal passage and rain has
tapered off on Saturday, high pressure builds in Sunday. The sfc
high will slide off the coast Monday...allowing a moist return flow
into the region; added a 20-30% pop for Monday. Expect highs in the
low 70s inland to low 60s over the obx.
Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
short term /through Tuesday afternoon/...
as of 115 PM Monday...VFR conditions expected for most of the
short term, with some MVFR fog possible again tonight. Winds
this afternoon are 5-10 knots out of the SW. Widespread cumulus
clouds have formed across the region, with bases around 5k ft.
Expect these clouds to dissipate after sunset. Winds become
around 5 knots overnight, and skies should at least partly clear
with some high clouds possible. Some MVFR fog is possible from
4-7 am, but with more widespread clouds approaching overnight
this is a low confidence forecast. If the clouds arrive
earlier, fog would be unlikely to develop. Scattered
thunderstorms expected later Tuesday, some storms could be
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/....
as of 330 PM Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through most of
the period, expect for Friday. Widespread rain and thunderstorms
Friday will lead to periods of MVFR and possible IFR conditions.
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 330 PM Monday...high pressure will extend over area from
offshore through Tuesday but pressure gradient will tighten
during period with cold front approaching from west. SW winds
will increase to 10-15 knots tongiht and to 15-20 knots by late
Tuesday. Swell from distant low pressure north of Hispaniola
will result in building seas during period, with heights to 6 ft
expected outer portions of southern and central waters
overnight and added southern waters to Small Craft Advisory.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/....
as of 330 PM Sunday...small craft advisories will be in effect
south of Oregon Inlet to Surf City through Thursday morning.
Cold front is expected to cross the waters Wednesday morning as
high pressure builds back again through Thursday with north/NE winds
10-20 knots. Winds will shift from NE to S Friday as a warm
front lifts through the area as southerly flow increases to
15-25 knots. Seas will be 4- 6 ft between Oregon Inlet to Cape
Lookout through Thursday. Seas will subside briefly 3-5 ft
Thursday through Friday morning before seas build back Friday
afternoon above 6 ft as southerly flow increases ahead of the
next approaching cold front.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 am Tuesday to 11 am EDT Thursday
Small Craft Advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am EDT Thursday