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afdmhx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Synopsis...
a hot and humid airmass will remain over the region through
Saturday. The remnants of tropical cyclone Cindy will pass
well to the north on Saturday. A tropically enhanced cold front
will move very slowly through eastern NC Saturday and Sunday,
before pushing just south of the area by late Monday. The front
will meander just off the coast through Wednesday. High pressure
will build in from the west Wednesday through late next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of 1000 PM Fri...ridging aloft will continue over the region
tonight while Atlantic surface high pressure continues to
circulate a warm SW flow across eastern NC. The increasing SW
gradient will produce very warm, humid, and breezy conditions
tonight. Winds will gust upwards of 20-25 mph interior, 25-30
mph on the coast as remnants of Cindy approach from the west.
The models bring an area of enhanced moisture into the coastal
plain after 6z but are indicating little if any quantitative precipitation forecast with it so
will continue to indicate a dry forecast with an increase in mid
clouds late. Lows will be sultry aided by the southerly flow
with lows of 75 to 80 expected.

&&

Short term /6 am Saturday morning through 6 PM Saturday/...
as of 330 PM Fri...the remnants of Cindy will turn into an open
wave and track north of the area on Saturday. The bulk of the
day will be dry as large scale forcing for ascent does not
arrive until evening. Nevertheless, the atmosphere will be
primed with high temps and dewpoints leading to moderately
strong buoyancy. Pre-frontal trough and increasing mid/upr
winds will lead to marginal deep layer shear of 25-30 kt which
may support a stronger storm or two with the threat of
marginally severe hail and strong downburst winds. Have inc pop
trend in the afternoon to 20-30 percent with some storms
developing on the sea breeze after 18z. Heat indices will again
climb to at or above 100 degrees during the afternoon.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
as of 300 PM Fri...deep moisture associated with the remnants
of Tropical Storm Cindy, coupled with an approaching cold front
will lead to continued wet weather across eastern NC. The front is
forecast to move south of the region Tuesday with high pressure
building over the area mid to late week, with cooler and less
humid conditions expected.

Saturday night through Monday...rain showers will overspread the
region Saturday night, and quickly become more widespread and
heavier. Localized flash flooding will be possible Saturday
night through Sunday, as precipitable water values are expected to be very
high, 2-2.5", the warm cloud layer will be upwards of 14,000 ft,
and storm motions will be nearly parallel the upper level flow.
These factors will lead to very efficient rain processes, and
training of storms. There could also be a marginal severe threat
later on Sunday afternoon, as MUCAPE values approach 2000 j/kg,
and 0-6 km shear values are 30-40 kts. Have increased pops to
categorical for coastal sections overnight Saturday, with
likely pops elsewhere. Rain will taper off to showers over the
coastal plain on Sunday as the front bisects NC around Highway 17.
Have chance/slight chance showers persisting along the coast for
Monday as the front slowly pulls away. High temps Sunday and
Monday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s inland, and the
low 80s along the coast.

Tuesday...upper level trough and large vort Max will pass over
central and eastern NC on Tuesday. Some scattered showers are
likely to develop as a result. GFS and Euro differ on extent of
the precip, so have split the difference and have chance pops
for most of Tuesday. Cooler 850 mb temps will lead to seasonably
cooler high temps on Tuesday, mostly in the upper 70s and low
80s.

Wednesday through Friday...high pressure will build over the
region Wednesday, and slide off the coast for Thursday and
Friday. Dry weather is expected (finally) and as SW winds
develop Thursday and Friday Summer heat and humidity return.
High temps Wednesday will be similar Tuesday, and then warmup
Thursday and Friday, into the upper 80s inland and low/mid 80s
along the coast.

Low temps through the long term will be mild Sunday morning, in
the low to mid 70s, and then mostly in the low to mid 60s inland
and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast.

&&

Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through Saturday/...
as of 705 PM Fri...mainly VFR through the taf period. Expecting
primarily increasing mid and high clouds late with a chance for
a scattered MVFR stratocumulus deck as the low levels become
moistened late. The atmosphere will be too mixed for fog as it
will remain breezy tonight with wind gusts around 20 kt
continuing. Increasing and lowering cloud cover on Saturday
afternoon with a few storms developing after 18z time frame
along the sea breeze boundary. More substantial precipitation
is expected after 8 PM Saturday evening.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 315 PM Fri...a moist unstable airmass will lead to
widespread rain and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday
with periods of MVFR and perhaps IFR ceilings and vsbys. Most
precipitation should be east of the taf sites after Sunday
afternoon. High pressure will build in Wednesday. As usual,
patchy late night/early morning fog will be possible, especially
in areas that receive rainfall.

&&

Marine...
short term /through Saturday/...
as of 1000 PM Fri...no changes to previous thinking. Small Craft Advisory
continue for all waters. Pressure gradient tightening between
the remnants of Cindy approaching from the west and high
pressure off the southeast coast. Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt
with some gusts to 30 kt expected through Saturday before
diminishing Sat afternoon as remnants of Cindy pass off the mid
Atlantic coast. Winds and seas will peak late tonight into early
Saturday morning.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 330 PM Fri...gusty SW winds 20-25 kts Saturday night will
decrease to 10-15 kts during the day Sunday. Seas initially
will be 5 to 7 ft, and will decrease to 2 to 4 ft by Sunday
afternoon. Winds Monday and Tuesday will be quite variable
mostly 5-10 kts, before finally turning to the north on Wednesday.
Seas will be 2 to 4 feet Monday and 2 to 3 feet Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...beach hazards statement through Saturday evening for ncz095-
098-103-104.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Saturday for amz130-131-
136-137.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EDT Sunday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Sunday for amz156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for amz150.

&&

$$
Synopsis...tl
near term...jme/tl

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