Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 151709
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1209 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017
weak low pressure will deepen as it lifts to the northeast late
today and tonight pushing a cold front through the region. High
pressure will build in from the west Saturday through Sunday. A
complex frontal system will affect the region early next week
with high pressure building in for the middle of next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1205 PM Friday...decreased cloud cover as mainly thin high
clouds over region...also raised temps a bit a few spots as
already near fcst highs.
Prev disc...widespread mid/high cloudiness continues over the
area this morning. A cold front crossed the region late Thursday
evening and is now near the NC/SC border. A weak area of low
pressure will form along the front over inland eastern NC today
and move northeast by tonight. Meanwhile, a strong mid- level
shortwave will approach. This will enhance the cloudiness over
the region, but the sub- cloud layer will remain dry with no
precipitation expected. As the low moves northeast and
strengthens, light NE winds early today will become SW and
increase by midday. High temperatures will again be fairly mild
today, reaching the mid 50s inland to lower 60s coast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Saturday/...
as of 245 am Friday...strong mid-level trough will dive
southeast across the region late tonight producing abundant mid
and high level clouds. Despite the cloudiness, strong cold air advection behind
the departing area of low pressure will drop minimum temperatures
into the upper 20s inland and low/mid 30s coast. Northwest winds
will remain on the gusty side near the coast, but should
diminish to 5 knots or less inland by later tonight.
Long term /Saturday through Friday/...
as of 300 am Friday...weak ridging builds into the area this
weekend followed by a complex system moving into the region
early next week bringing better chances of rain.
Saturday through Sunday...weak ridging and sfc high pressure
build into the region this weekend keeping conditions dry. Cool
temps expected Sat with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s and
lows in the lower 30s inland to around 40 along the coast Sat
night. High pressure moves offshore sun with increasing clouds
ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Return flow will bring
a warming trend sun with highs expected in the mid 50s to around
Sunday night through Tuesday night...a better chance of rain
expected early next week as a series of dampening shortwave
troughs lift out of the Southern Plains and lift across the area
tapping into Gulf moisture. While model guidance is in somewhat
better agreement this morning, there remains some differences
with the strength and timing of the systems. 00z models have
trended drier with an upper ridge centered over the western
Caribbean and ridging into the southeast holding strong with
very little shortwave energy remaining as they move across the
region, however we do get better jet dynamics Tue as a northern
stream trough pushes across the region with the attendant cold
front pushing across the region Tue night. Temps expected to be
above normal this period with predominant SW to west flow across
the region with highs generally in the low to mid 60s and lows
in the 40s inland to around 50 coast.
Wednesday through Thursday...high pressure builds into the
region Wed, then pushes offshore Thu ahead and the next northern
stream system digging into the plains with dry conditions
expected across eastern NC. Highs expected to be in the 50s
Wed, then warming a few degrees to the upper 50s/low 60s Thu.
Wed night lows expected in the 30s inland to low 40s coast.
Aviation /17z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through Saturday/...
as of 1205 PM Friday...high confidence in VFR conditions
through this taf period. Sct to bkn high clouds into early
evening ahead of short wave then mainly clr rest of period as
short wave exits. Combo of light west-northwest breeze and lowering dewpts
shld preclude fog from forming late tonight despite clr skies.
Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
as of 315 am Friday...pred VFR conditions expected through
Sunday. High pressure builds into the region over the weekend
but will see increasing clouds sun in advance of the next system
approaching the region. Rain chances increase late Sun night or
Mon and continue through Tue with periods of sub-VFR conditions
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 1205 PM Friday...west-southwest winds are starting to pick up as low
pres deepens offshore. Expect cont increasing west-southwest winds this
aftn becoming west-northwest tonight as low cont to deepen and cold front
Prev disc...NE winds continue at 10 knots or less with a few
gusts around 15 knots around Duck Pier. A cold front crossed the
waters earlier tonight and is now near the NC/SC border. Low
pressure will develop on the front today and move northeast as
it strengthens. Expect winds to become SW by midday and
strengthen to 15 to 25 knots with building seas. As a result,
have issued a new Small Craft Advisory for the waters from
Oregon Inlet south from midday today until 05z tonight for the
waters south of Ocracoke and into mid-morning Saturday for the
remaining waters. Seas around 3 to 4 feet early this morning,
should be to 4-6 feet in the Small Craft Advisory area by later today into
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Friday...northwest wind around 10-20 kt and seas 3-6 ft early
Sat diminish to west around 10-15 kt Sat afternoon with seas 2-4
ft as high pressure builds into the region. Winds diminish to
5-10 kt Sat night, then becomes S/SW around Sun afternoon as the
high moves offshore while seas subside to 1-2 ft late Sat night
and sun. The next system approaches from the west early next
week but uncertainty remains with the details leading to a low
confidence forecast. Do expect winds to increase some as the
system approaches and have west/SW winds increasing to around
10-15 kt Sun night and Mon and 10-20 kt Mon night and Tue ahead
of a stronger cold front. Seas expected around 2-3 ft Sun night
and Mon building to 3-5 ft Mon night and Tue and may build up to
6 ft across the outer portions of the central/southern waters
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 am EST
Saturday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 am EST Saturday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 am EST Saturday for amz156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 am EST
Saturday for amz150.