Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 290200
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
a cold front will cross the region later tonight. High pressure
will build in from the north late Wednesday into Thursday. A
warm front will move through from the southwest Friday. A cold
front will move through early Saturday. Another cold front will
approach the area early next week.
Near term /overnight/...
as of 10 PM Tue...only change was to add patchy fog to zones
away from the beaches tonight, as earlier rains combined with
calm to light winds and clearing skies have led to fog
development this evening. Fog should clear by around daybreak
with north winds increasing.
Previous discussion...as of 745 PM Tuesday...second batch of
thunderstorms have moved east to the coast as short wave axis
now moving through east NC with drying subsident flow behind it.
Have a decreasing pop trend through midnight for eastern areas,
with all locations dry after midnight with partly cloudy skies
expected. Another warm night expected with lows in the 50s.
Short term /Wednesday/...
as of 1240 PM Tuesday...dry weather expected for Wednesday as
high pressure ridges in from the SW. Winds will be out of the
north, and it will be a bit cooler. High temps will still reach
the low to mid 70s except for the Dare County and the nobx where
the winds will blow off the still cold ocean, and temps will
only reach the low to mid 60s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
as of 230 PM Tuesday...
Wednesday night through Thursday...ridging at the surface and
in the mid-levels will keep the region dry with a north/NE wind flow
providing slightly cooler temperatures. Seasonal temps
Wednesday night with lows generally in the mid to upper 40s. North-northeast
flow will keep nrn coast chilly Thursday with mid 50s rest of
the area will be in the 60s.
Thursday night through Sunday night...moisture will start to
spread east from the mountains Thursday night with a few showers
reaching the far western County Warning Area toward morning Friday. A deep 500
mb trough which will become negatively tilted...coupled with
advection of deep moisture into eastern NC ahead of cold front
will lead to a rather wet Friday and have continued previous
forecasts of likely pops Friday into Friday evening. Quantitative precipitation forecast totals
expected to be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range and could top an inch
in some spots. Will continue mention of thunder in the forecast
for Friday and Fri evening. Instability is not very impressive
in the latest model runs...but with negatively tilted upper
trough and plentiful moisture...a few thunderstorms will be
quite possible. Highs Friday will range from the mid 60s Outer
Banks to lower 70s inland. Small chc of lingering shra coast
early Sat then dry and mild rest of the weekend with high pres
crossing to the north and ridge aloft over the area. Highs Sat and
sun will range from the the upper 50s to lower 60s NE CST to
low/mid 70s SW.
Monday through Tue...another impressive srn stream short wave
will impact the area with good cvrg of shra and a few tsra late
Mon into Tue. Given uncertainty of timing this far out will
keep pops in chc range but did add some tsra as area shld be in
warm sector. Highs will be in the 70s inland to 60s beaches.
Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through 18z Wed/...
as of 745 PM Tuesday...improving conditions expected this
evening as showers/storms exiting east NC. Model guidance
continues to indicate we could see a low stratocumulus deck
around 3k ft advect into east NC affecting all taf sites for a
period on Wed morning. Return to VFR expected by later Wed
morning with north winds 6-12 kt expected.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 230 PM Tuesday...with ridging in place at the surface and
in the mid- levels...expect VFR conditions into Thursday evening.
Widespread sub-VFR conditions are likely Friday and Friday
night as numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will occur
with slow moving cold front. Improving conditions to mostly VFR
later Saturday and Sunday with surface and mid-level ridge
again building over eastern NC.
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 305 PM Tuesday...SW winds now around 10-20kt are expected
to continue and strengthen a bit more later this evening. Winds
will diminish tonight after a cold front moves through, but are
expected to pick up again out of the north around 15-20 kt by
Wednesday morning. Seas are expected remain 4-6 ft across the
central and southern waters and build up to 7 ft overnight with
contribution from swell produced by a low pressure area lifting
north across the western Atlantic. Will continue the Small Craft Advisory for
the waters south of Oregon Inlet.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 230 PM Wednesday...north-northeast winds will grad diminish to 10 to
15 kts most areas later Wed night into Thu as high pres builds
in from the north. Seas are expected to subside below 6 feet all
waters by early Thu. Winds will veer to east-southeast 10 to 15 kts on
backside of high Thu night with seas 3 to 5 feet. South-southwest winds will
ramp up to 15 to 25 kts Fri into Fri evening ahead of a
low/cold front. These winds will lead to seas reaching 6 to 8
feet late Fri and Fri night. The cold front will push offshore
by early Sat with west-northwest winds 10 to 20 kts becoming more north late.
Seas will subside to 4 to 6 feet Sat. High pres will build in
from the northwest sun with north to NE winds aob 15 kts and seas mainly 3
to 5 feet...poss some lingering 6 footers far outer central and
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Thursday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for amz156-158.