Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1222 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

VFR conditions will prevail, although brief 2-3KFT CIGS can't be
ruled out through late this afternoon. East-northeast wind through
early evening 12G20KT then 5-10 knots overnight. For Tuesday,
similar speeds as today expected, but wind may have bit of
southerly component to it.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 912 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016/ 

Fairly sunny skies this morning with breezy ENE winds. This
weather will continue through the day. With front now over Florida
Straits, any showers should remain over our southernmost Atlantic
waters and have restrict POPs further south with this morning

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016/ 

VFR will continue to prevail at all TAF sites today with some
periods of MVFR cigs of BKN020-025 through the morning hours. 
Winds will veer to a more easterly flow this afternoon, becoming  
breezy and gusty at times as high pressure begins establishing 
across the region in the wake of a frontal passage. Wind speeds 
will subside a little tonight, then increase again on Sunday. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 456 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016/ 

Today through Monday...cold front moved off the Southeast Florida
coast shortly after midnight with a few showers to the south of 
the Florida Keys and lingering clouds behind the front across SE 
Florida. Drier and cooler air has become established across the 
Lake Okeechobee area and SW Florida, but having a hard time making
it to the east coast as surface winds out of the NE acting to
mitigate the cool air advection. A mix of sun and clouds across 
southern areas today, but any precipitation should be confined to 
the far southern portion of Miami-Dade County and isolated in 
coverage. Northeast winds increase to breezy over much of the area
today, then continue breezy out of the east on Sunday as high 
pressure stays north of the area over the Carolinas. Sunday should
still have a mixture of sun and clouds but again with little in
the way of precipitation. Temperatures today and Sunday will be
slightly cooler and drier than the unseasonably humid conditions 
of the past couple of days, but still near or even slightly warmer
than normal. More humid conditions return to South Florida on 
Monday as winds turn more SE ahead of a low pressure system over 
the western Gulf of Mexico. Despite the increasing humidity on 
Monday, significant precipitation should remain west of the area 
closer to the low pressure area. Temperatures on Monday will be 
above normal with lows in the 60s and lower 70s and highs in the 
lower to mid 80s.

Tuesday through Friday...the high pressure area surface and aloft
over Cuba and the Bahamas begins to shift east and changes the
weather pattern across Florida. The surface low pressure and
associated cold front is forecast to approach the area late
Tuesday with enough moisture for scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms area-wide. The front then appears to stall across
South Florida on Wednesday which will keep a chance of rain area-
wide. Decent consensus among the global models that a longwave
trough will set up over the eastern half of the U.S. late next
week and send a strong cold front down the Florida peninsula.
Air behind this front looks to be of Arctic origin and ensemble 
and operational model solutions suggest temperatures could drop
into the 40s over most of South Florida by the end of next week.
Still a lot of time to monitor trends as we're still about a week

NE to E winds increase to 15 to 20 knots today and continue
through Sunday, then shift to SE on Monday and S to SW on Tuesday.
Looks like conditions should stay below small craft advisory
criteria for now, but at least caution level conditions will be
present and will have to watch closely in case winds reach 20 

The onshore 15 to 20 knot winds today will lead to a high risk of
rip currents at the Atlantic beaches from this morning through
Sunday night, with elevated rip current risk likely into Monday.

West Palm Beach  69  79  72  82 /   0  10  10  20 
Fort Lauderdale  72  79  73  82 /  10  10  10  20 
Miami            71  81  73  83 /  10  10  10  20 
Naples           65  82  70  84 /   0  10  10  20 


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations