Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
728 am EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR flying conditions will prevail through the taf period with
mainly clear skies and dry weather. Northwest to northerly winds
will be around 10 knots today, with winds decreasing to around 5
knots after 00z.


Previous discussion... /issued 416 am EDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

short term (today-sunday)...model guidance shows a drier and
cooler air mass descending upon the region during the weekend.
Pops look very low for much of the short term, but still a brief
isolated shower or two could form, mainly in the afternoon hours.

Latest model solutions show a weak frontal boundary moving across
the state later today, bringing the aforementioned drier and cooler
air, with morning lows reaching the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday
early morning. Some locations over Northern Glades County could go
down to around 50 in the Palmdale vicinity. Expect afternoon Max
temps to remain near normals through the short term with little or
no rain.

Winds will remain from the north or NNW in the wake of the frontal passage
through Sunday morning, then gradually veering to the NE in the
afternoon as high pressure over the eastern Seaboard intensifies.

Long term (sunday night-thursday)...models remain in fair
agreement regarding having dominant deep layered high pressure
over the region with mainly dry weather continuing until the
middle of next week. As the sfc ridge axis gets closer to the
region and the ridge aloft weakens, winds will gradually shift to
a more east flow by mid week. This synoptic setup will also allow for
low level moisture to gradually return to South Florida with
scattered showers spreading across the area starting Thursday.

Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while
morning lows will likely reach the low to mid 60s, coldest over
interior/northern portions of the County Warning Area.


Marine...northerly winds 15 knots or less are expected later
today in the wake of a frontal passage. High pressure will then build
across the region through the rest of the weekend with winds
becoming more northeasterly, and likely increasing to near 20
knots early next week. Expect waves in the 2 to 5 feet category
in general, with a lingering swell of around 2 feet over portions
of the Atlantic waters. A few brief isolated showers are possible,
but dry weather should be the norm for the weekend.


Beach forecast...there is a moderate risk of rip currents for
the Palm Beach County beaches today, with a decreasing risk over
the weekend. A coastal flood statement remains in effect for
coastal areas in Broward and Miami-Dade counties until 4pm today
with isolated minor tidal inundation still possible around times
of high tide.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 86 63 81 63 / 0 10 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 86 68 83 67 / 0 10 0 10
Miami 86 66 84 67 / 0 0 10 0
Naples 82 65 79 59 / 0 0 0 0


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


beach forecast...17/AR

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations