Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 260041 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Miami Florida
841 PM EDT sun Jun 25 2017
most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has dissipated over
the West Coast Metro areas this evening and should continue to
dissipate during the next hour or two. The latest short range
models are showing the weather to remain dry tonight over South
Florida. Therefore, the pops have been removed from most of South
Florida for tonight, except for a 20 percent pops over the
western Metro areas of South Florida for this evening. Rest of the
forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are
Previous discussion... /issued 732 PM EDT sun Jun 25 2017/
a few showers will linger around Naples area through the rest of
this evening, while a couple showers could still develop around
the lake area. It should remain mainly dry overnight, although a
stray shower can not be ruled out, especially over the Gulf Coast.
Current forecast package remains on track and no significant
changes are required for the evening update.
the winds will be light and variable tonight over all of the taf
sites before becoming easterly around 10 knots on Monday. The only
exception to this is at kapf taf site where the winds will become
westerly in the afternoon hours. The weather should remain dry
tonight into Monday for most of the taf sites, except for kapf taf
site where thunderstorms in the vicinity will be added after 19z on Monday. The ceiling and
vis will also remain in VFR conditions through Monday for all of
South Florida taf sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 319 PM EDT sun Jun 25 2017/
short term (tonight-tuesday)...broad high pressure remains in
place across the western Atlantic tonight with generally moderate
southeasterly flow and a few lingering showers or thunderstorms
during the evening hours.
Models show a developing trough over the central U.S. Deepening
southward on Monday. An associated cold front boundary will push
southeastward into northern FL, which in turn begins eroding the
aforementioned high across the region. Model x-sec moisture fields
show increasing values ahead and along the fropa, which will
combine with sea breezes to bring increasing shower and
thunderstorm activity during the next couple of days. The leading
edge of the front should not reach the area, but its influence
will be enough to generate enough instability and deep layer
moisture for some storms to become strong, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours.
Temperatures will remain near normals with afternoon highs in the
mid 80s to lower 90s.
Long term (tuesday night-saturday)...expect the active wetter
pattern to continue through the end of the work week as the
western Atlantic high pressure struggles to build back into the
region. By Saturday, stronger subsidence and a drying trend should
begin bringing back a more typical Summer pattern with sea breezes
resulting in afternoon convection favoring interior and Gulf Coast
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to expand
into Florida through Monday morning with mainly southeast wind
prevailing across the coastal waters. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will increase during the work week as a trough/front
complex moves across northern Florida during the first half of the
VFR conditions prevailing across South Florida. Radar and
satellite trends indicate scattered showers developing over the
Lake Okeechobee region. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also
likely to form over the next few hours across interior sections
and move generally toward the northwest which may move near kapf.
East-southeast winds around 10 knots today except variable at kapf
due to showers and potential for the Gulf Breeze to move near or
over the terminal. Winds become light overnight before picking up
again out of the southeast after sunrise Monday. Cannot rule out
isolated showers overnight into the morning hours Monday, but
best chances for convection will be after 18z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 78 91 76 89 / 10 30 20 50
Fort Lauderdale 80 90 79 90 / 10 20 20 50
Miami 79 90 79 91 / 10 30 20 50
Naples 75 90 76 90 / 20 40 30 40