Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 241219
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
819 am EDT Mon Jul 24 2017
southeast winds will increase to 8-10 knots at the East Coast taf
sites aft around 24/1600z with vcsh conds aft 24/1800z. Most
thunderstorm activity will be farther inland today. Thus,
only maintained thunderstorms in the vicinity at kapf along the Gulf, where highest
chances exist. Winds and shower activity should diminish this
evening, with the loss of diurnal heating.
Previous discussion... /issued 313 am EDT Mon Jul 24 2017/
today and tonight: a few isolated showers and storms over the
Atlantic may affect the East Coast Metro this morning.The drier
air and remnant sal layer that kept precipitation chances and
coverage low over the weekend will move out of the region today.
High pressure with deep subtropical ridge will be in place with
east southeasterly wind flow. Mid- levels will still have some
lingering dry air so expecting precipitation coverage to be
scattered in nature today. Best chances for showers and storms
will be across the interior and portions of the Gulf Coast. High
temperatures today will be in the 90s along East Coast to mid 90s
in the interior with heat indices around 100 degrees.
Tonight activity will shift over the waters with some isolated
showers and storms possible along the East Coast Metro in the
overnight and early morning hours.Overnight temperatures will drop
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the East Coast and
mid 70s across the interior and Gulf Coast.
Short term /Tuesday and Wednesday/: with the subtropical ridge and
east southeasterly flow in place moisture will be on the rise
Tuesday through the rest of the week. Model soundings have pwats
around 2 inches. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase
with coverage mainly over the interior and Gulf Coast during the
afternoon and evening hours. During the overnight hours activity
will shift over the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Isolated showers and
storms may drift over East Coast Metro regions from the Atlantic.
High temperatures will be a little higher on Tuesday with some areas
into the mid 90s with heat indices over 100 degrees across all of
South Florida with some areas seeing heat indices in the 105-108
degree range during peak heating. Will continue to monitor to see
if a heat advisory will be needed Tuesday. Overnight lows will be
in the mid to upper 70s with some locations along the East Coast
in the lower 80s.
Long term /Thursday into the weekend/ : subtropical ridge will
weaken slightly towards the end of the week allowing a more
southerly wind flow as we move into the weekend bringing more
tropical moisture into the area. This will allow coverage and
chances of showers and storms to increase across South Florida. East
Coast Metro regions will see higher chances of rain towards the end
of the week into the weekend. High temperatures will remain in the
90s and the warm muggy nights will continue.
Marine...generally good boating conditions will prevail with a
light east-southeast flow around 10 knots or less. Winds may briefly
near 15 knots at times over the offshore Atlantic waters. Seas will
be 2 feet or less. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
VFR will prevail at all terminals with light and variable flow
through 15z, then easterly/southeasterly winds increase to around
10 kt this afternoon. Confidence in having ts nearby the Atlantic
terminals today is low as sea breezes develop and may push most
of the convection inland. Will include vcsh for those terminals
for now and let morning shift decide if mention of ts is
necessary. Apf may again experience westerly/onshore flow in the
afternoon with sea breezes, along with better chances of having
thunderstorms in the vicinity. VFR should then prevail after 24/00z at all terminals.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 92 80 94 80 / 20 20 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 91 81 93 81 / 20 20 30 20
Miami 92 80 93 80 / 20 20 30 20
Naples 93 78 93 78 / 20 20 30 30