Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 251934
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
334 PM EDT Thu may 25 2017
a broken line of thunderstorms pushing across South Florida is
located just ahead of a cold front this afternoon. The front is
forecast to slow down and become stationary over the extreme
southern part of the peninsula tonight into early Friday.
Showers/storms should decrease in coverage this evening and will
mainly be confined to the far southern part of South Florida and
marine areas. For Friday, northern portions of South Florida will
see drier conditions with lower relative humidity, but southern
areas will still see a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms
especially during the afternoon.
The front will wash out by Saturday as high pressure builds into the
region for the weekend. Above normal temperatures are expected this
weekend, and heat indices will likely be near 100 degrees by
Saturday for portions of South Florida. An afternoon thunderstorm
or two cannot be ruled out over interior South Florida this
weekend as converging sea breezes could spark some isolated
activity. However, for the most part, Saturday through Monday
should feature hot weather, relatively light winds and only slight
Rain chances should then increase somewhat by the middle of next
week as the high pressure begins to shift eastward and weaken.
This will allow for a flow of somewhat moister air over the
winds and seas will be decreasing this evening, becoming
light overnight. Relatively benign marine conditions are then
expected to persist Friday through the weekend and into early next
week. Sea breezes will develop each day over the Holiday weekend, so
winds could be as high as 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts for a few
hours in the late morning to early afternoon right near the coast.
Another exception to the benign conditions would be near any
thunderstorms, where locally enhanced winds and seas could occur.
convection will continue to be a concern for the East Coast
terminals through the next several hours with activity expected to
diminish later this evening. Some shower activity could persist
overnight but confidence is not high enough to include any
restrictions at this issuance beyond the immediate short-term.
Short-fused amendments for sub-VFR cigs and vsbys due to
convection can be expected through the next issuance at 00z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 72 88 74 92 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 76 90 79 91 / 30 40 30 10
Miami 76 90 78 92 / 30 40 30 10
Naples 73 88 74 90 / 10 10 0 10
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for amz650-