Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 232346
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
746 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017
the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the West
Coast Metro areas of South Florida early this evening will
continue to slowly dissipate through rest of the evening as the
heating of the day is lost. There are also a few showers over the
southern Atlantic waters early this evening. These showers should
also dissipate through the evening hours, as the drier air will
continue to work into the area from the east. Therefore, a slight
chance chance of pops will continue over the West Coast Metro
areas and over the southern Atlantic waters this evening before
dry conditions occur over all of South Florida for the overnight
hours. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other
changes are planned.
VFR conditions will continue at all Atlantic terminals tonight,
while rain showers/thunderstorms and rain could still affect apf this evening. Southeasterly
flow prevails during the next 24 hours along with mainly VFR
conditions, except apf with thunderstorms in the vicinity Saturday afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017/
.High risk of rip currents East Coast beaches through this evening...
.drier weather continues this weekend before return of more
active weather next week...
Saturday and Sunday...
high pressure over the western Atlantic waters will remain nearly
stationary this weekend allowing for an easterly wind flow over
South Florida. The drier air that has been occurring over the area
the last couple of days will continue through this weekend. This
dry air will keep the pops below average over South Florida this
weekend with only a slight chance of showers over the eastern
areas to a low end chance of showers and a few thunderstorms over
the western areas. Temperatures this weekend will range from
around 90 over the East Coast Metro areas to lower to mid 90s over
the interior and West Coast Metro areas, and lows will be in the
70s except around 80 across the East Coast Metro areas.
Monday through Wednesday...
the high over the western Atlantic waters will get pushed
southward into the Bahamas, as a cold front over the Tennessee
Valley slowly moves southward and into northern Florida. This will
allow for deeper moisture to work into South Florida leading to
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day with the
highest pops over the interior areas.
Late next week...
the front is forecast by the long range models to move back
northward late next week allowing for the ridge of high pressure
over the Bahamas to move back northward into the western Atlantic
waters. This will allow for more of a typical Summer time weather
pattern to set up over South Florida with morning shower and
thunderstorm activity East Coast areas shifting to the interior
and West Coast Metro areas in the afternoon.
the winds will remain easterly around 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon into tonight before decreasing to around 10 knots this
weekend. The winds will then remain easterly around 10 knots for
the early to middle portion of next week. This will allow for the
seas to remain at 3 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf
waters of South Florida this weekend into next week. Therefore,
boating conditions look good over the South Florida waters
outside of any shower or thunderstorm activity.
the threat of rip currents will be on a decrease tonight into this
weekend over the East Coast beaches of South Florida as the wind
speeds will be on a decrease. Therefore, the high risk of rip
currents for the East Coast beaches of South Florida will be
allowed to expire this evening.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 79 90 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 81 89 81 89 / 10 20 10 20
Miami 80 90 80 90 / 10 20 10 20
Naples 77 92 77 92 / 20 30 10 20