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000 
FXUS62 KMFL 281926
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
326 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.DISCUSSION... 

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Remainder of the afternoon is expected 
to pan out similarly to yesterday with scattered showers and storms 
now ongoing along the seabreezes as well as other boundaries across 
the region. A special 15Z sounding shows that steering flow remains 
non-existent over the region, so storms that develop will move 
very little. New development will trend further inland with the 
seabreezes as we move through the afternoon, though outflow 
boundaries may initiate additional storms back towards the coasts.
Best chances will be late afternoon/early evening with the 
seabreeze collision over the interior. Lightning will remain the 
main hazard with storms, though slow storm movement will also 
bring locally heavy rainfall and boundary collisions may produce
stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail. 

Storms are expected to wind down by midnight, with scattered 
activity over the open waters overnight occasionally brushing the 
coasts. 

THURSDAY: This will be a transitional day, as we lose the influence 
of the weak front currently across North Central Florida as high 
pressure begins to build in from the east. The overall drier, and 
slightly more subsident airmass will keep coverage of showers and 
storms right around seasonal norms. 

Isolated showers and storms will likely get going along both 
seabreezes as they develop and move inland early in the afternoon, 
with the east coast seabreeze moving more quickly and afternoon 
coverage generally favoring the western interior. With temps aloft 
near normal and no significant synoptic features, the biggest hazard 
with storms will remain lightning. The light southeasterly wind 
profile is also favorable for waterspout development over the local 
waters, especially in the morning.

FRIDAY THROUGH FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY: Somewhat stagnant, and fairly 
typical summertime pattern will be in place across the region for 
this weekend through the upcoming holiday. The axis of the western 
Atlantic ridge, both at the surface and aloft, will extend across 
the Florida peninsula bringing prevailing easterly flow. Both 
seabreezes will develop each afternoon, with the Atlantic seabreeze 
dominating and convection favoring the Gulf coast and western 
interior. Best rain chances along the east coast will be during the 
overnights and mornings. Warm and muggy temperatures will continue 
with highs in the lower 90s, leading to afternoon heat indices 
around 100F. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 70s, with east 
coast locations potentially remaining above 80F for many nights. 

&&

.MARINE...Generally good boating conditions will continue across the 
local waters into the weekend and early next week. Prevailing winds 
will generally be southeasterly at 10kts or less, with local sea 
breezes briefly enhancing winds near the coast to 10-15 knots during 
the afternoon.

Overall coverage of showers and storms will be on the decrease as we 
go into the weekend, with the best coverage over the open waters 
during the nights and mornings. Inland waterways, as well as the 
Gulf coast will see better chances during the afternoons and 
evenings. Erratic winds and higher seas, along with lightning will 
be possible in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes have 
developed and are currently moving across the peninsula around 10 
KT. Scattered thunderstorms in the western portion of the east 
coast metro area may push an outflow boundary or two across the 
TAF sites, but less than 25 KT. Winds and shower activity should 
diminish aft 29/0000Z. Light and variable winds are expected 
tonight with mostly dry conditions. The Gulf and Atlantic sea 
breezes will push inland again aft 29/1700Z with more shower/storm
activity developing inland. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  91  78  91 /  20  30  20  40 
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  79  90 /  20  30  30  30 
Miami            79  92  79  90 /  20  30  30  30 
Naples           76  91  76  91 /  20  40  40  40 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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