Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kmfl 210752 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
252 am EST Tue Feb 21 2017

500mb ridge over South Florida remains in control today providing
another warm and dry day across the area. Weather pattern begins
to change as high begins to move east Tuesday evening ahead a of
a strong low pressure system reaching S Florida region. This system
will begin to increase chance of rain in the middle of the week.
Currently, low pressure over the Central Plains will travel east
into the Mississippi River valley today and continue moving east
into the northeast Gulf Coast into Wednesday. Abundant moisture
and instability ahead of this system will move into the South Florida
region increasing the potential for active weather late Wednesday.
Expect conditions to deteriorate starting late Tuesday into Wednesday
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters
and the Florida Peninsula, mainly due to some isentropic lift ahead
of the system.

There is a strong low level jet Wednesday mainly over the southern
portion which could enhance some storms to develop in the afternoon
and evening. The models are showing associated front to be off
the Atlantic coast by 12z Thursday morning but there is still some
moisture lingering over the region which will allow for some
showers to wrap around the low Thursday morning. Expect some
showers possible especially in the early Thursday morning. There
is no significant cold air mass associated with this front which
will not bring much change to temperatures for the remainder of
the week. High's temperatures will reach the upper 70s to near 80s
Wednesday and Thursday and return to the mid 80s Friday afternoon.
For the the weekend, models show a return to mostly quiet weather
for South Florida.


easterly flow will continue today and begin to shift southeast
into Wednesday as ridge over the region shift east ahead of a
strong low pressure system. Winds will increase to scec as strong
low approaches our waters Wednesday. This will result in the
potential for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Seas are forecast to build slightly for the middle of
the week, currently to around 5 to 6 feet in the Gulf Stream. Into
the early part of next week, a weak front moves through the
region building seas once again, then subside quickly into


patchy fog possible over the interior through daybreak, with local
MVFR cigs affecting kapf through around 09z before moving offshore.
Otherwise, dry and prevailing VFR through taf cycle.East-northeast flow 4-7kts
at most sites through remainder of night, though a few may decouple
and become calm. East-southeast winds pick up to 9-12kts after 15z, with Gulf
Breeze brings winds around to the SW after 20z at kapf.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 80 69 77 65 / 0 40 70 70
Fort Lauderdale 79 68 78 65 / 10 30 70 80
Miami 80 68 77 64 / 10 30 70 80
Naples 82 65 72 60 / 0 30 80 30


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations