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000 
FXUS62 KMFL 090825
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
325 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/... 

As of 325 AM EST...A cold frontal boundary continues to slowly 
move southward across the region, with the latest surface 
observations indicating the front located along central Miami-Dade
and mainland Monroe counties. Ahead of the front, in areas such 
as Homestead, a muggy airmass continues to remain in place with 
dewpoints around 70. Behind the front, drier air has begun to work
into the region from the north with dewpoints falling into the 
60s and even upper 50s in portions of Glades and Hendry counties. 

While most mainland areas have seen generally dry weather overnight, 
the local Atlantic waters and portions of the east coast metro in 
Broward and Miami-Dade counties have remained quite active with 
plenty of shower activity, aided by a warm Gulf Stream. This trend 
looks to continue through daybreak based on the latest high-res 
models, and cannot rule out a waterspout or two with this activity 
especially off Miami-Dade county where the low-level flow will 
initially remain weak this morning.

For the rest of today, scattered showers look to occur especially 
across eastern areas, as the flow shifts to north/northeast in the 
wake of the front. The flow will become breezy by the mid morning 
hours as well especially along the east coast. While cannot out a 
rogue shower across western areas today, expecting generally fair 
and dry weather with a surge of dry air from the north.

Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees below normal today, with 
highs only in the lower to mid 70s for most areas, with portions of 
Hendry and Glades counties struggling to make it out of the upper 
60s. With mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions expected, it 
will definitely feel cooler than recent days.

SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Breezy northeast to east flow will prevail through the short term
period, with gloomy weather for December. Behind the frontal 
passage, slightly drier air will build into the region from the 
north, although low-level moisture looks to hang tough across 
south and eastern areas as the frontal boundary slowly drifts and 
washes out north of Cuba.

Much of the period will feature mostly cloudy to occasionally cloudy 
skies with scattered showers possible especially across eastern 
areas as they stream in off the Atlantic. The best chance for some 
sun and dry weather will be across western areas, where the driest 
air looks to filter in.

Temperatures will initially be below normal for the first half of 
the weekend with highs Saturday ranging from the mid to upper 70s 
and lows Saturday night ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. 
Temperatures will moderate back to normal for the latter half of the 
weekend with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 70s to near 80 and 
lows Sunday night ranging from the 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Long range guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement with 
more tranquil weather returning to the region for much of the work 
week as weak high pressure builds across the region from the north. 
This high pressure will help decrease winds across the region and 
shift the flow to east/southeast. Widely scattered showers will 
still remain possible across the region, especially across portions 
of the east coast metro. Temperatures will be near to slightly above 
normal for mid-December.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine and small craft advisory conditions likely through 
the weekend across the local Gulf and Atlantic waters...

A cold front will continue to move south of the region into the 
Florida Straits today, with increasing northeasterly flow in its 
wake. These winds will lead to hazardous boating conditions today 
and continuing through much of the weekend, with wind speeds around 
20 knots, increasing to as high as 25-30 knots this weekend 
especially over the Atlantic waters. Seas will build to 6-9 feet 
in the Atlantic, highest in the Gulf Stream, and 4-7 feet in the 
Gulf waters highest offshore. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
through much of the weekend. Winds and seas will begin to 
decrease beginning Monday as weak high pressure builds across the 
region.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Rip current risk will increase to Moderate today for the Atlantic 
beaches with increasing north/northeasterly flow. As the flow shifts 
more to the northeast and continues to increase Saturday, rip 
current risk will likely be High for the Atlantic beaches, with 
dangerous rip currents likely continuing into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions will prevail today, although periods of
VSBY/CIG restrictions are possible mainly in showers after
daybreak. There is some low stratus in the vicinity of KMFL, so
have placed TEMPO MVFR conditions in place through 10z.

Winds will be NNW 5-10 knots through mid-morning, then turn NNE
and increase to 10-15 KT with higher gusts in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  75  68  75  70 /  40  50  30  30 
Fort Lauderdale  75  67  75  70 /  50  50  30  40 
Miami            75  66  76  70 /  60  40  30  40 
Naples           71  59  78  63 /  30  10  10  10 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

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