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000 
FXUS62 KMFL 250054
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
854 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Periods of cloudy skies and passing showers will continue into 
the overnight hours as the breezy easterly winds keep pushing 
moisture from the Atlantic waters into the area. Evening radar 
data was still showing scattered showers streaming across South 
Florida, with most activity happening around Southern Palm Beach 
and northern Broward counties. Other areas of showers were 
streaming across south Miami-Dade. 

Conditions will begin drying out by Saturday morning with a less 
humid airmass filtering into South Florida as stronger high 
pressure builds across the region. Expect overnight temperatures 
dropping into the low to mid 60s, then climbing into the low 80s 
Saturday afternoon. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 813 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ 

AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered showers will continue through the rest of 
the evening, long with brief periods of CIGs around 030. But in
general, VFR should prevail during the next 24 hours. Shower 
activity should significantly decrease after 10Z. East winds will
subside some tonight but still remaining around 10-12 kt before 
becoming gusty again Saturday morning. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 

As of 300 PM EDT...A quieter weather day continues across South 
Florida, as the remnant frontal boundary which brought scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms yesterday remains draped across 
the Florida Straits. However, lingering low-level moisture and 
onshore flow off the Atlantic has allowed for scattered generally 
light showers to occur across eastern areas, with the greatest 
concentration across Miami-Dade County in vicinity of the 
aforementioned frontal boundary. While most of the showers will be 
light, a brief heavy downpour cannot be ruled out with a few of the 
showers as there is some instability present.

East/northeast winds have been breezy at times as the region remains 
under a tight pressure gradient on the southern periphery of strong 
high pressure in the western Atlantic basin. Wind gusts will 
occasionally reach 25-35 mph at times through the remainder of the 
afternoon in eastern areas, and 15-25 mph across western areas. Not 
anticipating any short-fused wind advisories as these gusts should 
be pretty infrequent and remain generally below 35 mph.

Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies have limited high temperatures 
to an extent across eastern areas, generally only in the upper 70s 
to near 80, but more clearing further west along the Gulf Coast has 
allowed temps to reach into the lower 80s. Tonight will continue to 
feature breezy winds and scattered showers for primarily eastern 
areas, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to drift away from 
the region on Saturday, allowing high pressure to ridge in from the 
north, along with slightly drier air. There will still be the 
potential for a few showers streaming off the Atlantic along the 
east coast, but coverage will be more isolated in nature. Winds will 
also gradually subside throughout the weekend as the flow becomes 
more easterly. Another weak frontal boundary may move across the 
region late Sunday with little impacts expected across the region. 

High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 70s/near 80 for 
eastern areas and low to mid 80s for western areas, with lows 
Saturday night ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Highs Sunday 
will generally be in the 80s with lows Sunday night in the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The long term period will be characterized by an east/southeast flow 
regime, with weak upper-level ridging aloft and high pressure at the 
surface. An upper-level trough digging through the lower Great Lakes 
early next week will help to break down the upper-level ridging 
further, allowing the flow to become more southerly. Generally fair 
weather can be expected through the period, although a few showers 
streaming in off the Atlantic will be possible from time to time 
mainly across eastern areas. A dry frontal passage looks possible in 
the midweek period, with little changes to sensible weather expected.

With the east/southeasterly flow in place, temperatures will be 
above normal for the long term period, with daytime highs well into 
the 80s and lows in the 60s. 

MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters 
through early Saturday afternoon...

Hazardous marine conditions will continue to affect the local waters 
through much of the weekend, as the region remains under a tight 
pressure gradient on the southern periphery of strong high pressure 
across the western Atlantic basin. East/northeast winds of 20-25 
knots, with occasional gusts to 30 knots will continue to prevail 
over the Atlantic waters, along with rough seas. While conditions 
are forecast to gradually improve over the Gulf waters, small craft 
will still need to exercise caution through tonight. Scattered 
showers will be possible through tonight mainly over the Atlantic 
waters.

Boating conditions will begin to improve early next week as the flow 
weakens and shifts to the southeast along with improving seas. For a 
more detailed marine forecast, see the Coastal Waters Forecast.

BEACH FORECAST...
A High Risk of rip currents will continue for the Atlantic beaches 
through the weekend with strong east/northeast onshore flow. The rip 
current risk for the Atlantic beaches should begin to decrease by 
early next week as the flow weakens and becomes more southeasterly. 

Rough and hazardous surf will continue to be possible for Palm Beach 
County beaches into early Saturday, with breakers of 5-8 feet 
possible. These breakers may lead to minor coastal beach erosion.

FIRE WEATHER...
No major fire weather concerns are anticipated through the weekend, 
as relative humidity values are expected to remain above 40 percent 
for much of South Florida. However, occasionally breezy 
east/northeast flow Saturday and Sunday afternoons along with very 
good dispersion may increase localized fire weather risk, especially 
in vicinity of ongoing wildfires. Slightly drier air working into 
the region on Monday could lead to increased fire weather risk 
across much of the interior and Gulf Coast with relative humidity 
possibly dipping below 40 percent at times, although wind speeds 
should generally be 10 mph or less.

AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue through the
evening hours for southeastern Florida terminals. Any CIGs below
030 should be isolated and short-lived, with the highest chance of
this happening for Miami-Dade County terminals. After about 08Z, 
shower activity should be significantly diminished. Gusty east
winds will continue through the afternoon.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  69  80  67  81 /  20  10  10  10 
Fort Lauderdale  70  79  71  81 /  30  20  10  10 
Miami            68  80  70  82 /  30  20  10  10 
Naples           63  83  63  82 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

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