Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 191119 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Miami Florida
719 am EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
the winds will be northeast around 10 knots today before
decreasing to 5 knots or less tonight at all of South Florida taf
sites. Scattered showers and may be a thunderstorm will affect the
taf sites today. However, the coverage of thunderstorms will be
few and far over South Florida today. Therefore, vcsh will
continue at all of the taf sites today and will updates to the taf
sites if a thunderstorm moves into the taf site. The ceiling and
vis will also remain in VFR conditions today outside of any shower
or thunderstorm where it could fall down into MVFR conditions.
Previous discussion... /issued 415 am EDT Thu Oct 19 2017/
short term (today-friday): a stationary front located just to our
south over the Florida Straits will continue to be a focus for
moisture and shower activity through Friday. However, water vapor
satellite imagery indicates drier air over central Florida and over the
northern part of south FL, with somewhat moister air over the far
southern Florida and along the East Coast. These areas will continue
to see a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
each day, with highest chances during the afternoon. Some showers
will also be possible overnight tonight, similar to last night,
for the East Coast Metro and far south areas. Temperatures should
be near normal values. Winds Thursday will be light to moderate
from the NE, with stronger NE-east-northeast winds on Friday.
Long term (friday night-wednesday): high pressure over the southeast US
will gradually migrate eastward to the western Atlantic over the
weekend into early next week. The pressure gradient will tighten
late Friday and strong winds will then persist through the
weekend. These winds will be east-northeast early in the weekend, becoming east
later in the weekend. Typical showers will be possible each day
this weekend, but excessive rainfall is not expected. The high
pressure will weaken and move farther offshore early next week in
response to a strong trough marching eastward across the US. The
trough and its associated cold front will approach South Florida on
Tuesday. We can expect an increase in atmospheric moisture early
next week as winds become southeast and then S as the cold front
approaches. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) both have the front clearing through
South Florida by Wednesday. If this scenario comes to fruition, then
South Florida could feel its first taste of fall, with some drier and
north/NE winds continue during the next few days, with speeds to 20
kts on Friday. Winds will become more easterly later in the
weekend but will remain breezy through the weekend. Seas in the
Atlantic waters will be up to 5 to 7 feet for the rest of the week
and into the first part of the weekend.
convection associated with a stalled boundary will continue to
impact the East Coast terminals over the coming hours with sub-VFR
vsbys and cigs possible. Thunderstorms will be possible near the
coastal waters in the morning, pushing inland of the terminals by
afternoon. Generally northeasterly flow will prevail with gusty
variability around convection.
with increasing NE-east-northeast winds later this week corresponding with
high astronomical tides, water levels along the East Coast will be
near coastal flood criteria during high tide. Based on recent
observations, we have issued a coastal flood advisory for Palm
Beach County in effect from this morning into Saturday. This may
need to be extended southward to include Broward and Miami-Dade
later this week if conditions warrant.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 86 76 86 79 / 40 40 40 40
Fort Lauderdale 86 77 88 80 / 40 40 40 40
Miami 88 77 88 79 / 40 40 40 40
Naples 89 74 91 75 / 20 20 30 10
Florida...high rip current risk through this evening for flz168.
Coastal flood advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for flz168.
Am...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am EDT this
morning for amz650-670.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 am EDT Friday