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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
405 am EDT Mon may 29 2017

short term (today through wednesday)

Deep layer ridging that has dominated South Florida and brought
some heat records (see climate section below) will continue for
another day or two. The main change today should be a slightly
earlier sea-breeze intrusions, which should keep temperatures down
slightly from yesterday. Still though, maxima in the short term
will exceed 90 degrees most areas. Minima will be in the 70s. A
few thunderstorms are possible this and Tuesday afternoons,
mainly over the interior where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes
collide. There will be a slight better chance of activity
Wednesday afternoon.

Long term (wednesday night through Sunday night)
upper ridge breaks down mid to late week as zonal flow aloft will
prevail. Surface high will also weaken and slide to the east,
putting South Florida into a moist, southerly flow pattern. Pwats
will become above normal for this time of year, and most guidance
indicates rain chances will rise significantly accordingly. With
the main forcing being due to see-breeze collisions and subsequent
outflow boundaries/interactions, thunderstorm chances will be
highest over the interior. At the moment, have high chance/likely
pops over the interior, with chance pops even along the coasts.
Temperatures during the long term will be more regulated by
precipitation, so maxima will return to near normal near 90f,
with minima remaining above normal in the 70s.


southeasterly flow will gradually become more dominant early this
week, though speeds should generally be 15 knots or less. Seas will
remain 4 feet or less through the week. Thunderstorm chances will
increase for the latter half of the week.


the winds will be light and variable through the morning hours
before increasing from the east around 10 knots along the East
Coast taf sites. The winds over kapf taf site will also remain
light and variable through the morning hours before going westerly
around 10 knots in the afternoon hours. Any showers or
thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon will be over the
interior areas and away from the taf sites. Therefore, the taf
sites will remain dry along with VFR conditons today.


Fire weather...
upgraded Fire Weather Watch to red flag warning for Glades County due
to forecast 4 to 5 hours of relative humidity below 40 percent
this afternoon. For Hendry County, the 4 hour threshold is
unlikely to be reached, and winds appear to be on track to remain
below 10 mph. Thus, have dropped the watch, but conditions will
continue to be closely monitored. On Tuesday, moisture will
increase some, so at this point it looks like relative humidity
thresholds will not be met after today through the remainder of
the week.


Sunday, Miami set its all time record high temperature with 98
degrees. Although temperatures are expected to not reach as high
today or for the rest of the week, they are expected to be near
records. Here is information on records for today.

Monday record highs:

Naples 96 2011 forecast high: 92
West Palm Beach 96 2000 forecast high: 92
Fort Lauderdale 95 1915 forecast high: 92
Miami 94 1951 forecast high: 92

Tuesday record high minima:

Naples 79 2012 forecast low: 75
West Palm Beach 79 1982 forecast low: 77
Fort Lauderdale 80 2008 forecast low: 80
Miami 79 2011 forecast low: 79

Tuesday record highs:

Naples 95 2011 forecast high: 92
West Palm Beach 96 1945 forecast high: 91
Fort Lauderdale 95 1924 forecast high: 89
Miami 93 2012 forecast high: 91


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 92 77 91 78 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 92 80 89 80 / 10 0 10 0
Miami 92 79 91 79 / 20 0 10 0
Naples 92 75 92 75 / 10 10 10 20


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for


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