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fxus62 kmfl 182045 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
345 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

drier air will continue to keep the area generally rain-free over
the next 24 hours or so as a weak frontal boundary makes its way
south along the peninsula of Florida to close out the weekend. The
approaching front will increase clouds and rain chances late on
Sunday heading into Monday. The front is expected to stall
somewhere around South Florida late Monday into Tuesday, where it
will be capable of interacting with moisture to produce additional
rain chances.

Aloft, a mid-level trough will push across the Gulf of Mexico
early Tuesday. Shortwave troughs moving across the area will allow
some showers to develop and the potential for thunderstorms
returns later in the week. The pattern will hold, with the mid-
level trough sitting over the lower Mississippi River valley and
northern Gulf through early Wednesday. Another wave of energy will
approach from the northwest, with the potential for a cut off
mid-level low to develop.

Guidance diverges a bit with this feature as the 12z GFS depicts
the feature further north than previous days while the 12z European model (ecmwf)
keeps a more deeply amplified trough in place. The inconsistency
with the guidance in the last few runs has lowered confidence a
bit in the extended forecast period, but showers and thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out as what appears to be an unsettled pattern
remains over the region until late in the week. The evolution of
the forecast for late in the week, including the Thanksgiving
Holiday, should be monitored over the coming days. No big dips in
temperature are anticipated through the end of the week at this
point, but the additional moisture and cloud cover could play
some roles in keep conditions more moist and temperate heading
into the Holiday.


conditions should remain benign through the weekend, but an
approaching front late Sunday into Monday will create additional
shower chances and bring increasing wind. As the wind builds seas,
cautionary and/or advisory conditions will be seen across portions
of the coastal waters this week. The unsettled pattern that
appears will develop later this week could allow for some
improvement in seas, but showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast almost into next weekend.


Beach forecast...
Atlantic rip current threat could diminish over the next day or
so, though some beaches could continue to see some rip current
activity along channels developed by this recent onshore flow. As
such, conditions may vary by beach over the next couple of days
and swimmers are advised to follow lifeguard instructions at all


Previous discussion... /issued 1243 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017/

high pressure is forecast to keep the weather quiet through the
taf period with VFR conditions. The wind is becoming more easterly
this afternoon, and then should go light and variable again
tonight. The exception is kapf, where the Gulf sea breeze looks to
bring the wind around to the west this afternoon and the light and
variable tonight as well. Tomorrow, the wind is forecast to shift
to become more westerly, perhaps, west north westerly.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 65 82 65 78 / 0 10 30 30
Fort Lauderdale 66 82 67 77 / 0 10 40 50
Miami 67 82 67 78 / 0 10 40 50
Naples 64 80 63 79 / 0 10 20 10


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


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