Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 290710
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
310 am EDT Thu Jun 29 2017
Near term /through 6 PM Thursday evening/...
As of 310 am EDT...a frontal boundary across north-central
Florida continues to wash out as the upper-level flow across much
of the Continental U.S. Becomes more zonal in nature. This pattern will allow
the Bermuda high to restrengthen and reestablish itself, with one
more day of light flow across the region as the synoptic pattern
begins to transition.
Through daybreak, mainly quiet and dry weather is expected outside
of a few isolated showers or storms across the Atlantic waters.
Skies will be mostly clear with morning low temperatures in the
70s, except for some lower 80s readings in portions of the East
Today will feature another day of sea breeze driven circulations
from both the Atlantic and Gulf, helping to focus scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Most activity will be focused in the interior, although convection
will also be possible in coastal areas initially along the leading
edge of the sea breeze and later in the afternoon from outflow
boundaries of interior storms. Midlevel temps remain near normal, so
mainly general thunderstorms expected with lightning the primary
threat. Pwats near 2 inches will promote locally heavy downpours as
well. A couple storms may briefly become strong with brief wind
gusts around 40 mph possible where mesoscale convergence is
High temperatures will reach into the 90s for most areas, with lower
90s common along the coasts with low to mid 90s in the interior.
With plenty of tropical moisture in place, it will feel hot with
heat indices likely reaching into the lower 100s across many areas
as well, especially south.
Short term /6 PM Thursday evening through Saturday night/...
The short term period will transition to a typical summertime
pattern featuring light to moderate east/southeast flow, as the
Bermuda high becomes reestablished. With the flow slightly stronger,
the Atlantic sea breeze should be the more dominant, leading to rain
chances closer to climo, generally scattered in nature. Showers and
thunderstorms will be focused over the interior and Gulf Coast
during the afternoon/evening, with nighttime isolated to widely
scattered showers/storms over the Atlantic waters occasionally
reaching into portions of the East Coast. Temperatures will be near
to slightly above normal, with highs in the 90s for most areas and
lows generally in the 70s.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
The long term period will continue to see the Bermuda high dominate,
along with a predominately summertime easterly flow regime. This
pattern will feature typical sea breeze development during the
afternoon hours, with scattered showers and thunderstorms favored
over the interior and Gulf Coast, with nighttime activity favored
over the Atlantic waters and East Coast. With the Bermuda high
becoming well established, subsidence in the mid-levels will lead to
near of slightly below normal pwats for this time of year, helping
to keep rain chances towards seasonal norms. Temperatures will be
near to slightly above normal during the long term period.
generally good boating conditions will prevail across the local
waters for the next several days with light southeasterly flow.
Local sea breezes may briefly enhance winds near the coast to 10-15
knots during the afternoon, from the southeast along the Atlantic
coast and west/southwest along the Gulf Coast. Additionally, locally
erratic winds along with lightning will be possible in and around
thunderstorms which are expected to be isolated to widely scattered
in coverage. Waves will be 3 feet or less heading into the weekend.
by midday, sea breeze intrusions from both coast should have
induce isolated to scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in vicinity of terminals,
and this activity could persist until early evening. VFR
conditions will prevail, but restrictions, some significant, could
accompany any shwr/tstm that impacts terminals. Light/calm winds
through mid-morning, before becoming east-southeast /W at kapf/ around 10 kt,
calming again after sunset.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 91 78 91 79 / 30 20 40 10
Fort Lauderdale 91 79 90 80 / 30 30 30 10
Miami 92 79 90 80 / 30 30 30 10
Naples 91 76 91 77 / 40 40 40 30