Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 210710
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
310 am EDT Fri Jul 21 2017
short term (today-sunday)...models depict a mid level trough
located across the eastern Seaboard, which combined with the
western edge of a high pressure cell over the west Atlantic will
keep a generally light southerly flow over South Florida today.
This weather regime will result in continuing deep tropical
moisture advection from the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico,
supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Best chances of rain reside over interior areas, but a few strong
storms are certainly possible over the Atlantic Metro areas.
Little changes can be seen on model guidance for the rest of the
weekend, with a good general consensus of having a mid level
closed low developing at the base of the aforementioned trough
later today, which cuts off and drifts to the southwest as it
dissipates. Meanwhile, a drier air mass is also expected to
filter into the region, bringing a decrease in shower activity and
fewer thunderstorms. Winds also shift to a more easterly/southeasterly
regime as a sfc ridge expands across the western Atlantic and
into the state. Therefore, a more typical summertime Florida
weather pattern should return for the rest of the weekend. Expect
showers and thunderstorms developing along the Atlantic and Gulf
Coast sea breezes during the late morning and then pushing inland
during the afternoon.
Long term (sunday night-thursday)...deep ridging establishes next
week with mainly east to southeasterly flow over South Florida.
Generally dry conditions will prevail during the long term, except
for periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and early evening as sea breezes develop. Temperatures will remain
near normal values throughout the forecast period.
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
affect the Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters today, with
south/southeasterly winds in the 10 to 15 knots range at times.
Winds then shift to the east/southeast by early next week. Wave
heights will be 3 feet or less across the Atlantic and Gulf
Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds will accompany any
thunderstorm that forms.
isolated showers, with a few rumbles of thunder, will begin to
develop over the waters along the East Coast around 10z and
transition to thunderstorms in the vicinity by mid morning. Light south southeast winds
will prevail along the East Coast, and a Gulf Breeze along the
West Coast. Thunderstorms in the vicinity conds are expected to develop during the
afternoon, due to sea breeze interaction.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 91 77 92 77 / 70 30 40 30
Fort Lauderdale 90 78 90 79 / 60 30 50 20
Miami 91 78 91 79 / 60 30 50 20
Naples 90 77 92 77 / 60 10 40 20