Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 232129
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
429 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018
short term (this afternoon through Wednesday night): slow moving
cold front is responsible for showers and a few thunderstorms that
have been occurring this afternoon, mainly over northern portions
of South Florida, including the lake region. This activity will
be migrating eastward through the early afternoon hours. The cold
front will move through South Florida tonight. The air does not
become drier very quickly behind the front. With light winds, I
added patchy fog to the grids for the overnight period. Expect a
chance of showers to persist through Wednesday night, mainly
across southern and eastern portions of South Florida.
The cold front has been weakening significantly as it moves
southeastward, so this cold front will not bring air as cold as
the fronts earlier this month. The coldest night will be
Wednesday night, when lows are forecast to range from the upper
40s in Glades County to the lower 60s along the southeast beaches.
Medium range (thursday-saturday): strong high pressure building
in over the eastern U.S. Behind the front will bring clearing
skies and drier weather for late this week. The main story will
be the very strong pressure gradient and strong winds. Thursday
into Saturday, winds of 20-30 kt with gusts approaching gale force
are forecast for the Atlantic waters. Winds will be NE Thursday,
gradually veering to east by late Friday.
Long term (saturday night through tuesday):
GFS and European model (ecmwf) develop a low pressure trough near the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico around the Sunday time frame. The models are in a
little better agreement than they had previously been on the
timing for bringing this feature across Florida. Increasing
moisture and rain chances are likely for South Florida, especially
Sunday afternoon into Monday. Behind the system, somewhat cooler
air can be expected as we head into the middle portion of next
a cold front will pass through South Florida tonight, with a
chance of showers persisting over the waters into Wednesday night.
Hazardous northerly winds are expected to develop along with rough
seas Wednesday night into Thursday, then remain strong into the
weekend as they turn easterly. For the Atlantic waters, seas in
the 7 to 9 foot range, with winds of 20-30 kt and gusts near gale
force will be possible later this week.
the rip current risk may increase on Atlantic waters by late
Wednesday, and especially on Thursday as breezy north winds
impact the region. The winds will shift to NE on Thursday in
excess on 20 kt and become east on Friday, still over 20 kt. A
high risk of rip currents is likely Friday into Saturday on
Atlantic beaches, when the strong winds will be out of the east.
currently, rain showers over pbi will continue to affect the site before
diminishing early this morning. Southeasterly winds will prevail
through the overnight hours across all terminals before swinging
to the south by the afternoon as the front approaches the area.
Expect rain showers near the tafs sites through the day with fropa. During
the evening hours light and variable winds will gradually shift
northwest behind the front with drier conditions.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 64 74 57 70 / 40 10 20 0
Fort Lauderdale 67 76 60 71 / 30 30 30 10
Miami 66 77 61 72 / 30 30 30 10
Naples 63 75 53 73 / 10 10 10 0