Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
932 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Update...no changes to forecast. Prevailing east-northeast flow will allow
stratocu to continue to stream into the Atlantic coast overnight
leading to partly, to occasionally cloudy skies. Temperatures
remain seasonably mild in the low-mid 60s across the interior and
Gulf Coast and upper 60s/around 70 along the East Coast.
Main concern overnight will be increasing flow over the local
waters with winds coming up to 15-20kts by daybreak, especially
for the offshore waters. Small craft should exercise caution.
Previous discussion... /issued 716 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
Aviation...NE flow will decrease 02z-03z, with potential for
landbreeze/light northwest flow to develop at East Coast sites after 06z.
Stratocu will continue to stream in from Atlantic, with occasional
bkn conditions, though levels are expected to remain VFR at
fl040-060. East-northeast winds pick up after 14z tues, a little stronger
than Monday with speeds 12-15kts and occasional gusts 20kts later
in the afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 503 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
Discussion...high pressure extends across the southeastern
states and into the Florida Peninsula. Northeasterly surface and
low level flow continues to bring patches of moisture and low
level stratocumulus across the local Atlantic waters and the
Atlantic Metro areas.
Forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday...a diffuse and mainly dry cold
front is forecast to approach North Florida on Tuesday. High
pressure will continue to dominate South Florida through
Wednesday. The local pressure gradient and regional winds will
increase Tuesday and Wednesday however shower activity is expected
to be limited, mainly isolated passing showers across portions of
the Atlantic waters and affecting the Atlantic Metro areas from
time to time, starting late Tuesday through Wednesday.
Chances for rip currents across the Atlantic coast beaches will
increase through mid-week as winds and seas steadily build later
on Tuesday into Wednesday, and will remain high through at least
Forecast for Thursday into the upcoming weekend...the combination
of increasing moisture forecast on Thursday and Friday and an
upper level trough forecast to build into the east central Gulf
will lead to a chance of scattered showers Thursday and Friday.
The deeper moisture thus far is expected across the Florida
Straits and southern peninsula, with scattered showers mainly
forecast across the southern third of South Florida and adjacent
Gulf and Atlantic waters. Have continued a slight chance of
thunderstorms during this period, with similar conditions possibly
lingering into the early weekend. Will be able to better assess
thunderstorm chances as the week progresses.
Marine...the pressure gradient will increase across the regional
waters tonight into Tuesday with winds tonight increasing to the
15 to 20 knot range with gradually increasing seas with a pre-
cautionary statement for small craft in effect after 06z Tuesday.
Later on Tuesday winds across the Atlantic waters are forecast to
be in the 17 to 21 knot range with a Small Craft Advisory likely
late Tuesday if the guidance is consistent with the forecast wind
speeds. Winds and seas are forecast to gradually increase into
Wednesday with hazardous seas forecast across the Atlantic and
Gulf Stream waters on Wednesday. Into Thursday winds in the range
of 20 to 25 knots are forecast with hazardous seas continuing for
the Atlantic waters, and may be possible for the off shore Gulf
waters. Winds and seas are forecast to gradually decrease Friday
into the weekend.
Fire weather...late Tuesday into Wednesday winds across the
region are forecast to increase steadily as the local pressure
gradient increases, with the transport winds increasing through
this period. Maximum dispersion values to near 70 or above are
forecast Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the South
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 67 83 75 84 / 10 10 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 70 82 76 84 / 10 10 20 20
Miami 69 83 73 84 / 10 10 20 20
Naples 62 84 67 87 / 10 0 0 10