Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
346 am EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
..hot week expected across southern Florida...
the Bermuda high has settled in over the peninsula of Florida,
ushering in hot Summer days for southern Florida over the coming
week. The persistent east to southeast flow will focus the
majority of the afternoon convection over the interior and along
the pinned Gulf Coast sea breeze in southwest Florida. Overnight
and morning coastal showers, with an isolated thunderstorm or two,
can be expected. Radar currently shows several such showers over
portions of Metro South Florida this morning. Unfortunately, the
flow will keep pushing moist air into the area, allowing little
relief to a pattern that will keep persistently warm temperatures
during the overnight hours and hot temperatures during the day
over much of the region.
The deep layer high pressure will act to suppress convection,
limiting East Coast coverage and allowing much of the southern
part of Florida to experience a few hot days with heat index
values forecast to reach into the mid 100s over much the area with
some isolated areas over the interior briefly reaching into the
106-109 range before convection could potentially bring some
relief. This potential for hot days looks plausible through much
of the work week, creating a hazard for those who are outdoors for
extended periods of time. Anyone working outdoors should stay
hydrated and take frequent cooling breaks to help their bodies
Cope with the stresses from the hot temperatures expected this
week. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the afternoons,
with gusty winds, frequent to excessive lightning, and heavy rain
being the primary hazards of concern at the moment.
As a frontal system emerges across the eastern third of the
nation near the end of the week, the high pressure may be push
back into the Atlantic just enough to allow for an increase in
shower and thunderstorm chances closer to normal for this time of
year. We will have to keep an eye on the environment during the
transition away from our mini heat wave this week to see if any
ingredients for strong thunderstorms will be present later into
the weekend and early next week. The boundary will stall well
north of the region, keeping the influence of high pressure across
the region to close out the extended forecast period.
high pressure will hold over the region through the next several
days. Some easterly surges could bring brief bouts of gusty winds
over the waters mainly in the nighttime hours, but seas should
remain 4 feet or less through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 123 am EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016/
VFR flying conditions will prevail through the taf period ending
06z Wednesday. Outside of vcsh at kfll and kfxe, a dry night is
expected at the taf sites. Have placed vcsh at the East Coast taf
sites from 14z-20z, before the Atlantic sea breeze shifts any
showers/storms further inland. Started vcsh at kapf beginning at
17z, but confidence was not high enough to include thunderstorms in the vicinity at this
time with bulk of activity expected to be north and east.
Southeast flow will be stronger than recent days, especially at
the East Coast taf sites by the late morning hours at 10-15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots possible. The southeast flow should be
strong enough to prevent a Gulf sea breeze from pushing too far
inland at kapf.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 92 82 92 82 / 20 20 20 10
Fort Lauderdale 91 82 91 83 / 20 20 20 20
Miami 92 81 92 82 / 20 20 20 30
Naples 93 77 92 77 / 40 20 40 20
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