Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kmfl 181128 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
628 am EST Thu Jan 18 2018

northerly winds behind the cold front passage will be breezy
around 10-12 knots with some occasional higher gust. Later this
evening winds are forecast to shift to the north-northeast and weaken some.
Models are showing some drainage flow early tomorrow morning
shifting winds back to north-northwest. VFR conditions will prevail throughout
the period.


Previous discussion... /issued 436 am EST Thu Jan 18 2018/

latest water vapor imagery loop displays the cyclonic spin of a
low pressure system centered over North Carolina. Wpc analysis
indicates a cold front draping south and southwestward from this
feature, extending across the southern tip of the Florida
Peninsula. Currently, all surface reporting sites in the County Warning Area are
indicating northwest winds, a sure sign that the front has passed.
Very cold and dry air behind this front will continue to advect
in from the north through early this morning. Satellite derived
precipitable water indicates values less than 0.50" dropping into central
Florida. Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and a cold airmass
will help to lower minimum temperatures near Lake Okeechobee to
the lower 30s. A freeze warning through early this morning still
appears warranted for Glades and Hendry counties. Brisk northwest
winds, sustained 5 to 10 mph, will drop down wind chills to the
mid 20s to mid 30s for a majority of the northern interior and
Gulf Coast regions. Cold air advection will continue into this
afternoon. Maximum temperatures may struggle to reach the upper
50s by the Lake Okeechobee region and lower 60s elsewhere. These
values are between 13 and 15 degrees below seasonal norms for
this time of year. Though still chilly tonight, the airmass will
begin to modify, with minimum temperatures forecast a few degrees
above this mornings lows. Thus, not expecting any frost or freeze
conditions to develop anywhere in the County Warning Area.

By Friday, surface high pressure building over the southeast
Continental U.S. Will help veer winds across South Florida to the
northeasterly direction. As is often the case, this flow pattern
should modify the airmass by bringing in deeper lower level
moisture from over the Atlantic. On Saturday, a weak transient
ridge should help maximum and minimum temperatures rise to near
seasonal averages. Precipitation chances begin to creep higher as
well, with deeper moisture increasing from the south. Both the
GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree in drifting a weak low pressure disturbance
eastwards across the Gulf Saturday night into Sunday, maintaining
the chance for showers.

gusty north winds will continue overspread the
waters behind a cold front, building seas across both the local
Gulf and Atlantic waters. Hazardous boating conditions will
linger into this afternoon before slowly subsiding this evening.
Small craft advisories are in effect for both the Gulf and
Atlantic waters.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 59 48 66 57 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 61 50 68 60 / 10 10 10 10
Miami 63 52 69 60 / 0 10 10 10
Naples 59 40 69 54 / 0 0 0 0


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...freeze warning until 8 am EST this morning for flz063-066.

Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for flz063-

Am...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for amz650-651-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for gmz656-657.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for gmz676.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations