Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 272024
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
324 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017
Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)
deep-layer hipres continues to dominate South Florida, with
little change expected through the short term. Breezy easterly
winds will gradually turn southeasterly and diminish in speed by
mid-week. Temperatures will remain will above normal, with maxima
well into the 80s /perhaps a few low 90s over western interior
Tuesday. Minima will be in the 60s interior and west, with low to
mid 70s along the East Coast. See climate section below for more
details. Low-level moisture is moderate, so a few Atlantic showers
are expected, and isolated activity may push into the East Coast
at times through Tuesday. Wednesday, with the lightly, more
southeasterly flow, sea breeze development is possible, thus low
pops exist most areas. Cant rule out some patchy fog northwest
interior tonight, and the environment may support additional fog
development Tuesday night.
Long term (thursday through sunday)
cold front will pass through the region late Thursday/Thursday
night, bringing a slight chance of showers, with temperatures
returning to near normal in its wake. Front wont make it south of
Florida straights, and moisture will remain in the vicinity. Thus,
expect gusty NE winds with scattered Atlantic showers at times
making it onshore Friday through the weekend.
with near-surface high pressure centered north and east of the
waters through mid-week, breezy northeast and east wind will
prevail. Winds will turn more southerly and diminish in speed
Wednesday and Thursday, before a cold front turns winds northerly
Thursday night into the weekend. A few showers are possible mainly
over Atlantic waters through the week.
VFR conditions should prevail through the next 24 hours or so.
Easterly flow continues to prevail this afternoon across most of
the terminals with a few gusts as gradient keeps breezy
conditions across the area. There is still a remote chance of a
passing shower along East Coast sites but given strength of the
ridge and trends kept vcsh out of the tafs for now and will
amend as needed. East-southeast winds are forecast to decouple tonight a bit
but still remain around 10 kts for sites closer to the coast
(pbi/fll/mia) and 4-8 kts elsewhere. Winds should pick up once
again tomorrow by mid to late morning with nearly breezy
conditions in gusts as today. There is a remote possibility of
patchy fog developing early tomorrow morning at tmb and apf but
too much mixing above sfc layer to be a concern at this time. So
kept it off the tafs for now.
breezy easterly winds will persist into Tuesday. There is a high
risk of rip currents along Atlantic beaches through at least
Tuesday night, and this threat may continue into Wednesday.
Naples has thus far today tied a record high temperature for the
date with 87 degrees. Assuming temperatures dont rise further late
this afternoon, the daily record from 1971 will be tied. It is
also the highest temperature of the year so far in Naples.
Additional warm records may be threatened over the next several
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 73 83 73 85 / 20 20 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 74 82 75 83 / 20 20 10 10
Miami 73 84 74 85 / 20 10 10 10
Naples 67 86 67 84 / 0 10 10 10
Florida...high rip current risk through late Tuesday night for flz168-172-