Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 211435
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1035 am EDT Sat Oct 21 2017
winds have increased as expected today, and quite breezy
conditions will be realized through the weekend. Scattered showers
continue to stream inland from the Atlantic, and rain chances have
been adjusted to better coincide with broken bands of activity
this morning, particularly over far northern Miami-Dade County.
Temperatures continue to be above normal, and Miami is on pace to
tie a record warm minimum temperature for the date.
Previous discussion... /issued 826 am EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/
scattered showers will continue through the taf period across all
eastern terminals, bringing brief MVFR conditions at times,
otherwise VFR will prevail. East winds of 10 to 15 knots this morning
will become quite gusty during the afternoon...reaching 25 knots at
times, then diminish to around 10 knots tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 359 am EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/
High risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches...
easterly flow will continue over the region as the remnants of the
frontal boundary draped over the Bahamas and Cuba give way to high
pressure building over the southeastern United States. A surge of
moisture from the tropicals will round the ridge and push across
southern Florida, the Florida Straits, and Cuba today into Sunday,
with a warm front developing as the moisture surges northward. This
pattern will promote intermittent Atlantic showers that push ashore
and increasing cloud cover.
As the next work week kicks off, a frontal system associated with a
low in Canada will be pushing across the Great Lakes and lower
Mississippi Valley. As this system pushes eastward, the cutoff
mid-level low could develop over the Interstate 20 corridor. The
potential for a line of storms pushing across the Gulf exists and
the progress of this system will need to be monitored as it could
signal the first chances of significant thunderstorm activity
across the region in the last few weeks. It is still too early to
pinpoint potential impacts from this system's convection across
the area. The 00z GFS and 00z European model (ecmwf) are both depicting a broken
line of convection pushing across the region Tuesday into
In the wake of the front, cooler and drier air begin to filter
their way into the peninsula of Florida. With this change in
airmass will come our first taste of the dry season and
temperatures will struggle to reach into the 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday with temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s across
much of the area on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. High
pressure will quickly build behind the front, but its position
over the Bahamas could potentially allow moisture to return at
the end of the period allowing an increase in temperatures and
rain chances to close out the extended forecast period late in the
Small Craft Advisory conditions will prevail over much of the
coastal waters through the weekend as east-northeast winds become stronger,
with the potential for a small window for improvement to
cautionary conditions on Sunday during the day before winds
increase Sunday night. Conditions should improve early next week
as wind speeds gradually decrease.
persistent easterly flow will allow the high risk of rip currents
to persist through the weekend into early parts of the work week.
The flooding along the East Coast during high tide should begin to
decrease over the next several cycles as the new moon phase ends.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 86 78 89 78 / 40 40 50 30
Fort Lauderdale 87 79 88 80 / 50 50 30 30
Miami 87 79 88 79 / 50 40 30 30
Naples 90 75 91 76 / 30 10 30 20
Florida...high rip current risk through Sunday evening for flz168-172-173.
Coastal flood advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for amz650-651-670-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for gmz676.