Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 290503
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
103 am EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
a few isolated showers developed over the southeast coast Metro
areas but diminished leaving behind sct to bkn debri clouds at
around 5000ft-8000ft over most of the terminals south of fll.
However, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period with
calm wind overnight. This debri clouds will stream west into apf
but remain above 6000feet. Light wind begins to veer southeast
into the afternoon and remain at around 10 knots.
Previous discussion... /issued 926 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
quick update to add a slight chance of showers over the Atlantic
waters for the evening hours tonight, as a few showers have
develop over the Atlantic waters.
The other change is that the latest short range models this
evening have dropped the dew points over the western interior
areas of South Florida by couple of degrees compare to the
afternoon models for Wednesday. These lower dew points have
allowed for the relative humidities over the western interior
areas to fall down into the mid to upper 30s for Wednesday
afternoon. If this trend continues overnight with the 00z run
models, then a red flag warning maybe needed for interior Collier
County for Wednesday. The night shift will take a closer look at
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
Previous discussion... /issued 754 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
a couple of showers possible early this evening with late sea
breeze collision over the middle of The Everglades between
Alligator alley and Tamiami Trail, otherwise a dry and mild night
is in store. Patchy fog expected after midnight over the interior
to just inland of the Gulf Coast. All forecast elements on track
and no updates needed.
Previous discussion... /issued 710 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
the winds will be light and variable tonight into Wednesday
morning over all of South Florida taf sites. The ceiling and vis
will also remain in the VFR conditions along with dry weather at
all of South Florida taf sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 347 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
Fair weather through at least Thursday...
near-term (this afternoon and tonight): weak mesoscale low
pressure off the Palm Beach County coast this afternoon causing a
few showers over the Gulf Stream. Otherwise, light background
synoptic pattern promoting inland penetration of both east and
West Coast sea breezes this afternoon, but with dry air
predominating, little in the way of showers anticipated except
for maybe an isolated shower or two over The Everglades south of
Alligator alley. Light winds and mostly clear skies tonight will
be favorable for patchy fog over interior sections, mainly during
the pre-dawn and sunrise hours.
Short-term (wednesday through friday): high pressure surface and
aloft will dominate the weather pattern across Florida through
Thursday as area in between low pressure systems over the SW United
States and New England. Weak pressure gradient on Wednesday once
again will lead to sea breezes pushing inland during the afternoon,
but dry air in place will limit if not completely prevent any
showers. Patchy fog possible late Wednesday night and early
Thursday over interior sections. On Thursday, high pressure shifts
east of area as upstream low pressure system enters the Gulf of
Mexico. Low level flow will become southeast with the Gulf sea
breeze not pushing as far inland as previous days. Although
suppressing influence of the high pressure will diminish on
Thursday, still not enough moisture for more than perhaps an
isolated shower or two. On Friday, the low pressure system moves
across the southeast United States, but the associated mid/upper
level trough becomes less amplified as it approaches Florida. As a
result, possible area of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf
of Mexico early in the day on Friday may weaken substantially as
it nears South Florida, but enough increase in low level moisture
with the S-SW wind will support at least low-end chance of showers
Friday afternoon. Will have to watch for potential of more
organized convection holding together enough for more widespread
activity affecting parts of the area, but we have time to monitor
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal for late
March, with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s and 60s.
Dry air will keep dewpoints and relative humidity values on the
low to moderate side.
Extended period (saturday through early next week): mid/upper
level trough departs on Saturday, with lingering moisture trailing
back over area leading to a chance of showers. Sunday looks a
little drier before moisture surges back into area early next week
in association with next mid/upper level trough moving across the
southeast United States. For now models showing this next system
to be similar to the one expected on Friday, which means a better
chance of showers along with increasing south-southeast winds.
Temperatures expected to warm up a bit this upcoming weekend, and
we may see a few 90-degree readings over the interior along with
mid 80s over the Metro areas along both coasts. Remaining warm
into early next week, along with increasing humidity levels.
generally good boating conditions expected through Wednesday
(wind generally 10 knots) before winds gradually increase
Thursday and especially Friday. Winds on Thursday will be in the
10-15 knot range, highest over the near shore Atlantic and Gulf
waters. By Friday, southeast winds will be in the 15-20 knot range
over most of the local waters along with seas building to 3-5 ft.
Wind and seas look to decrease in time for the upcoming weekend,
then increasing again by early next week ahead of the next low
decent beach conditions expected through Thursday with the rip
current risk staying on the low side, expect borderline moderate
risk for the Palm beaches due to a small northeast swell. The rip
current risk will increase on Friday as southeast winds pick up,
possibly lingering into at least the first part of the upcoming
dry air in place across South Florida along with little if any
precipitation through Thursday will lead to some fire weather
concerns, particularly a result of low relative humidity values in
the 35 percent range over the interior (glades County through
inland Collier county). Although fuels are quite dry, forecast wind
speed and duration of critical relative humidity values are
at worst marginal for red flag warning conditions. Future shifts
will evaluate the need for warnings if trends show lower humidity.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 83 67 84 70 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 82 71 81 71 / 0 0 0 10
Miami 84 69 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 84 65 83 66 / 0 0 0 0