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afdmfl

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
140 am EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Aviation...
by midday, sea breeze intrusions from both coast should have
induce isolated to scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in vicinity of terminals,
and this activity could persist until early evening. VFR
conditions will prevail, but restrictions, some significant, could
accompany any shwr/tstm that impacts terminals. Light/calm winds
through mid-morning, before becoming east-southeast /W at kapf/ around 10 kt,
calming again after sunset.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 705 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

Update...

A few boundaries remain across the region, which will
continue to fire off showers and storms into late evening as they
interact, including along the coast. However, overall coverage
will continue to wane with sunset. No significant changes to the
ongoing forecast.

Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

Discussion...

Tonight: storms are expected to wind down by midnight, with
scattered activity over the open waters overnight occasionally
brushing the coasts.

Thursday: this will be a transitional day, as we lose the influence
of the weak front currently across north central Florida as high
pressure begins to build in from the east. The overall drier, and
slightly more subsident airmass will keep coverage of showers and
storms right around seasonal norms.

Isolated showers and storms will likely get going along both
seabreezes as they develop and move inland early in the afternoon,
with the East Coast seabreeze moving more quickly and afternoon
coverage generally favoring the western interior. With temps aloft
near normal and no significant synoptic features, the biggest hazard
with storms will remain lightning. The light southeasterly wind
profile is also favorable for waterspout development over the local
waters, especially in the morning.

Friday through Fourth of July holiday: somewhat stagnant, and fairly
typical summertime pattern will be in place across the region for
this weekend through the upcoming Holiday. The axis of the western
Atlantic ridge, both at the surface and aloft, will extend across
the Florida Peninsula bringing prevailing easterly flow. Both
seabreezes will develop each afternoon, with the Atlantic seabreeze
dominating and convection favoring the Gulf Coast and western
interior. Best rain chances along the East Coast will be during the
overnights and mornings. Warm and muggy temperatures will continue
with highs in the lower 90s, leading to afternoon heat indices
around 100f. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 70s, with East
Coast locations potentially remaining above 80f for many nights.

Marine...generally good boating conditions will continue across the
local waters into the weekend and early next week. Prevailing winds
will generally be southeasterly at 10kts or less, with local sea
breezes briefly enhancing winds near the coast to 10-15 knots during
the afternoon.

Overall coverage of showers and storms will be on the decrease as we
go into the weekend, with the best coverage over the open waters
during the nights and mornings. Inland waterways, as well as the
Gulf Coast will see better chances during the afternoons and
evenings. Erratic winds and higher seas, along with lightning will
be possible in and around thunderstorms.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 91 78 91 79 / 30 20 40 10
Fort Lauderdale 91 79 90 80 / 30 30 30 10
Miami 92 79 90 80 / 30 30 30 10
Naples 91 76 91 77 / 40 40 40 30

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

Update...88/alm
discussion...88/alm
marine...88/alm

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