Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 161735 aac
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1235 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017
the winds will remain northeast this afternoon at 5 to 10 knots
before decreasing to light and variable conditions tonight at all
of the taf sites. The only exception is that kapf could go light
and variable after 20z today, as a West Coast sea breeze could
develop and push slowly inland late this afternoon. The ceiling
and vis will also remain in VFR conditions through tonight along
with dry weather.
Previous discussion... /issued 934 am EST Sat Dec 16 2017/
high pressure will continue to build into South Florida today from
the north. This will allow for the winds to become northeast to
east at 10 to 15 knots over the local waters this afternoon with
northeast winds around 5 to 10 mph over the land areas. The
weather will remain dry for rest of today into tonight, as highs
will be in the upper 70s to near 80 and lows tonight in the 60s
expect mid to upper 50s west of Lake Okeechobee. Therefore, no
changes to the forecast except to remove the rest of tonight
wording from the zones.
Previous discussion... /issued 623 am EST Sat Dec 16 2017/
the winds will northeast around 5 knots this morning before
increasing to around 10 knots this afternoon over the East Coast
taf sites. The winds at kapf taf site will be northeast around
knots for most of the day, but could go variable around 5 knots
after 20z today as a West Coast sea breeze tries to develop and
push slowly inland. The weather will remain dry along with VFR
conditions in the ceiling and vis today over all of the taf sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 209 am EST Sat Dec 16 2017/
a quiet pattern is set up for South Florida through at least the
middle of next week. A strong 500mb high is forecast to build to
592-594 dm through the weekend, as a surface high also builds to
the north. As the sfc high builds, the pressure gradient will
increase some, causing a northeast wind to develop by Sunday
morning. Even so, it should stay below 10 kts across the land
portion of the County Warning Area. Over the water, it get up to around 20 kts
briefly. The ridging will also allow the air mass to continue to
warm, with highs today around 80 across the region. By the
beginning of the week, highs are forecast in the low to mid 80's
across South Florida, and continue that way at least through the
end of next week.
By the beginning of next week, the gradient slightly weakens, as
the high positions itself over the western Atlantic, and slowly
slides south, centering almost due east of the region.
The ridging should keep the region dry through the period.
However, models are hinting that there may be some areas with a
slight chance of rain beginning on Wednesday afternoon, namely in
the Western Lake region. By the end of the week, models keep the
slight chance of rain showers off shore.
So, in summary, mainly warmer and dry through the next 7 days
under high pressure.
building high pressure will bring an increase in wind by Sunday
morning, out of the northeast. This would allow seas to build to
3 to 5 feet in the Gulf Stream by Sunday morning, and run 2 to 3
feet for the beginning of next week. Seas are forecast to subside
back to 1 to 2 feet by late Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, mostly
dry with a slight chance of rain for the latter half of next week.
The wind will be increasing today and tonight to near advisory
criteria by late this evening. Currently the forecast calls for
mainly 15 to 20 kt wind sometime after 8 PM EST this evening. At
the minimum small craft should exercise caution if boating in the
South Florida Atlantic waters tonight and possibly tomorrow.
This increase in wind may also bring a moderate risk of rip
currents for at least the next several days for the Atlantic
coast, especially around Miami Beach, as the wind is forecast to
be stronger to the south.
VFR conds will prevail through the night with passing few/sct
cirrus above 25000 feet mfl. Otherwise, winds should remain light
and variable through early tomorrow morning with dry conditions.
Aft around 16/1800, expect east-northeast winds 8-10 knots to increase along the
East Coast. Winds will slowly diminish this evening, after Sun
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 77 66 79 69 / 10 10 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 78 68 79 71 / 10 0 0 10
Miami 79 68 81 70 / 10 0 0 10
Naples 79 60 82 65 / 0 0 0 0