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fxus62 kmfl 202024 
afdmfl

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
424 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Discussion...
latest infrared satellite imagery shows a band of scattered low level
cumulus stretching east to west across central Florida. In
addition, a line of of building cumulus can also be noted around
10 miles inland from the Atlantic coast, where the sea breeze has
managed to penetrate. Light overall flow will allow for sea
breeze collisions to develop, similar to yesterday. The hrrr is
hinting that the associated slow moving showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over the interior through this evening.
Besides a couple showers remaining over Palm Beach County
tonight, where most of enhanced instability and moisture resides,
expecting relatively dry conditions elsewhere. Maximum
temperatures are topping out in the upper 80s along the East Coast
and low 90s inland, typical for this time of year.

Thursday through saturday: synoptically little changes tomorrow
with both ridging to the north and surface high pressure
dominating. Light easterly winds and a modest amount of moisture
will lead to a chance of showers and isolated afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly over the interior where the sea breeze
collision occurs. From Friday through this weekend, Hurricane
Maria will edge toward the southern Bahamas then northward over
the open mid Atlantic Ocean. There appears to be no direct impact
to South Florida at this time. However, the aforementioned
hurricane will help to advect deeper tropical moisture into our
region, as well as increase deep northeasterly flow. Thus, expect
better coverage of showers and storms Friday into Sunday,
especially along the eastern portion of the peninsula.

Early next week: as hurricane marine continues to barrel northward
over the Atlantic, drier air will be pulled down into our County Warning Area. GFS
pwats drop to between 1.5" and 2.0". Subsidence aloft should
suppress much of the convection, leading to a drier long term
forecast.

&&

Marine...
long period northeasterly swell from distant Hurricane
Jose will continue to filter into the local Atlantic waters keeping
cautionary conditions in the waters off Palm Beach County into
Thursday. Light and variable winds today will allow both seabreezes
to form this afternoon. Winds will gradually increase out of the
east on Thursday and become turn more northeast or northerly by
this weekend.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours with light
and variable winds increasing to around 10 knots before
returning to calm tonight. A few isolated showers will
be possible this afternoon near or west of pbi but level
confidence is low at this time to include in the tafs.

&&

Beach forecast...
long period northeasterly swell from the distant
Hurricane Jose will continue to filter through the local Atlantic
waters. A high risk of rip currents will continue for all the
Atlantic beaches through this evening, and likely remain moderate to
high into late week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 76 90 77 90 / 30 30 30 50
Fort Lauderdale 79 91 79 89 / 20 30 30 50
Miami 78 92 78 90 / 20 30 30 50
Naples 76 92 75 91 / 20 30 20 40

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

Discussion...27/jt
marine...27/jt

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