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fxus62 kmfl 241148 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
648 am EST Fri Feb 24 2017

this morning IFR/LIFR conditions due to low ceilings is the main
concern. Tempo groups have been included at all taf sites to
account for the low ceilings until 13z northern sites and 14z
southern sites (timing based on hrrrx model output). Winds will
swing around to north-northeast or NE at most sites today with speeds
generally under 10 kts. Later this evening and tonight winds will
become light and variable. Patchy fog and/or low ceilings may
return tomorrow morning across South Florida but no flight
category restrictions are indicated in the tafs for now until
confidence increases.


Previous discussion... /issued 331 am EST Fri Feb 24 2017/

Discussion...short term (today through sunday)
low pressure area east of Florida gradually continues to pull
away from the area. There is still some wrap-around low level
moisture on the back side across much of southern Florida and
along with that some lingering low level clouds. But the trend has
been for those to continue to dissipate and decrease in coverage
over the past few hours. Despite the clouds, any showers should
remain light and well offshore the Atlantic coast where moisture
is a little deeper. Patchy fog is still possible early this
morning over the interior and Gulf Coast areas and the
extent/magnitude of the fog will now largely dependent on lack of
any clouds across the area and how much decoupling takes place in
the surface layer. Right now confidence is not high for
fog formation but there is still an off chance some patchy fog
could develop this morning. Similar concerns for patchy fog to
develop exists for tonight/Saturday morning but this time will be
mostly a function of how much cooling we get and decoupling in the
surface layer.

Skies should gradually continue to clear today as low continues
to pull away from the peninsula and deeper dry column moves into
the region associated with weak ridge building in. Another weak
front will move into the area on Sunday but moisture increase
associated with it will be limited which combined with lack of
frontal forcing and any sort of upper level dynamics means chances
of rain will be slight at best. Temperature wise, low temps will
remain (around 5 degrees or less) above normal through the weekend
with day time highs also a few degrees above normal "cooling
down" to near normal on Sunday as the aforementioned front moves
into the region with clouds somewhat on the increase.

Long term (sunday night-thursday)...front will stall across the area
early in the period but washes out early next week as stronger high
pressure system builds to our north. So slight chance of showers
could linger into Monday across the region but overall should remain
mostly dry. Dry pattern will persist into the middle of the week as
the aforementioned high remains in control. In fact, naefs shows
the region transitioning from a period of upper level heights
running below normal in the short term to well above normal next
week with heights running in the 90th percentile range from low to
mid levels though much of the period as a strong nearly 590 mid
level high builds just to our south. Models are beginning to hint
next frontal system approaching the region latter part of next
week but rain chances at this time look limited given aforementioned
synoptic scale high.

Temps will remain well above normal through the period with
overnight lows running as much as close to 10 degrees above normal
and daytime highs as much as 5 or more degrees above normal too.

moderate west to northwest breezes will weaken over the next
couple of days as a low pressure system moves off to the northeast
away from the area. Light winds will continue heading into the
weekend before the tighter gradient associated with a high pressure
system moves over South Florida late this weekend into early next
week. Winds will freshen out of the northeast Sunday through
Monday, then gradually weaken and veer as the high stretches out
into the Atlantic through the middle of next week.

A NE swell will peak around 2-4 feet offshore Palm Beach and 1-3
feet offshore Broward/NE Miami Dade tonight before retreating by
middle of the weekend in the back side of low pressure system
departing the regional waters off east central Florida. Small
craft should exercise caution for seas of up to 6 feet and
occasionally higher late today and through Saturday morning across
the Gulf Stream waters of Palm Beach County before swell retreats,
and then again late Sunday and into Monday across portions of the
offshore Gulf Stream waters of Palm Beach and southern Miami Dade

Beach forecast... aforementioned swell off Palm Beach County will
mean that rip current risk will likely remain moderate for Palm
Beach County through the early part of the weekend before
increasing later this weekend as stronger onshore winds develop.
For Broward and Miami Dade rip current risk should remain low and
then increase to moderate or may be even higher by Sunday. &&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 82 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 81 67 85 67 / 0 0 0 10
Miami 81 68 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 80 64 79 62 / 0 0 0 0


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...

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