Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 170727
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
327 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017
short term (today through wednesday): an upper level trough over the
southeast US is associated with a surface cold front boundary moving
through northern Florida. There is abundant moisture ahead of the front
as it moves down the peninsula. Models show precipitable water values
increasing to around 1.8 to 2 inches. Today ahead of the front,
we will see shower activity and isolated thunderstorms along the
sea breezes. The cold front will move into South Florida later
tonight before stalling and washing out across the region
Wednesday. Even though this is a cold front we will not see any
significant cooler air as temperatures will remain around normal.
Long term (thursday through the weekend): the upper level trough
will move east as a mid level ridge builds over the region by the
end of the week into the weekend. This will bring a breezy east
northeast wind to South Florida through the weekend. With the
front stalling out and tropical moisture still lingering around,
showers and a few storms will be possible in the afternoon hours.
By the end of the weekend the ridge shifts eastward into the western
Atlantic and flow will return to east southeast. Temps will remain
around normal through the extended forecast period.
easterly around 10 knots will continue before shifting to more
northerly with a cold front moving into the region, then
northeasterly flow and increasing to around 20 knots by end of the
work week. Seas will be 2 to 5 feet before increasing later this
week especially in the Atlantic waters.
diurnal convection will once again be possible on Tuesday with a
mid-level disturbance nearing the area late in the taf period.
Wind flow should remain lightest during the overnight hours,
picking up after the sea breeze starts later in the morning hours.
Afternoon convection will likely focus along the sea breeze and
any remnant boundaries. Heading into Tuesday night, some showers
may develop as the disturbance nears from the northwest.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 87 74 85 74 / 60 50 70 40
Fort Lauderdale 87 75 85 75 / 50 50 70 40
Miami 88 74 85 74 / 50 60 70 40
Naples 87 72 87 72 / 50 40 60 10