Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 300758
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
358 am EDT Tue may 30 2017
short term (today-wednesday): high temperatures will once again be
in the 90s across South Florida. A more prominent southeast flow will bring
more moisture and higher chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms across the interior where the Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes will collide. Moisture will continue to rise Wednesday with
a better chance of activity.
Long term (thursday-tuesday): upper level ridge continues to slowly
move east into the Atlantic along with the surface high. South
Florida will see a more southeasterly flow and even more moisture.
Latest models show precipitable water values rising to around 1.9
inches by he end of the work week. With more low-level moisture
combined with sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions,
potential for showers and thunderstorms will also increase as well
as coverage. Rain chances during the afternoon and evening hours
will be mainly concentrated in the interior and Lake Okeechobee
regions. During the morning hours showers and storms will be
concentrated over the waters.
Temperatures in the long term temps will be near normal around 90
degrees. Temps will not be as high as they will be regulated with
precipitation and a more brisk sea breeze not allowing them to reach
the mid to upper 90s like the past few days.
a light to moderate southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, with occasional gusts
will persist through the end of the week. Seas will be generally
2 to 4 feet. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will
increase tomorrow through late week.
VFR conditions are forecast through the taf period. Another round
of showers and storms will be possible today, but mainly in the
interior areas. Only kapf has a mention of any precipitation at
this time, and that is for the afternoon. The Atlantic coast sites
have a slight chance of convection this afternoon, but the
confidence is too low to mention at this time.
moisture will increase today with a more persistent a light
southeast wind. This will bring moisture into the interior and
allow relative humidity values to stay above critical values, this
will continue through the rest of the week. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the interior and Lake Okeechobee
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 90 77 89 77 / 20 10 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 90 80 89 79 / 20 10 10 20
Miami 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 30
Naples 91 75 92 74 / 30 30 40 30