Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS62 KMFL 290018
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
818 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Forecast remains dry with winds light and variable overnight. A 
wildfire in northern Broward County may cause some reduced 
visibility over some roadways in western Broward and northern 
Miami- Dade counties, including US-27 and I-75 tonight. Otherwise 
no other updates to the current forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 729 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017/ 

AVIATION...East coast seabreeze stubborn this afternoon, and 
most sites may continue oscillating between ESE and W through 
sunset. Light/VRB winds overnight becoming light WNW in the 
morning. Fog/smoke may be a concern near FXE/OPF due to an ongoing
brush fire northwest of these sites, but confidence is too low to
mention at this time. Gulf sea breeze will move through Naples by
midday tomorrow with east coast seabreeze expected to push inland
a little quicker (17Z-18Z) at most sites tomorrow. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to dominate 
across South Florida with dry conditions and warm temperatures and 
highs in the mid 90s. Miami International Airport has already 
set an all-time month of May record high of 97 degrees. Tonight 
expect temperatures to be in the mid 70s along the Gulf coast into 
the upper 70s along the east coast.
  
Short Term (Monday-Tuesday): Weather pattern does not change much 
tomorrow with temperatures in the 90s and heat index values in the 
100 to 105 range. The sea breeze will move in a little quicker 
tomorrow perhaps knocking 1 or 2 degrees off the highs along the 
east coast. High pressure gradually moves east through the early 
part of the week, resulting in a more east southeast flow. This will 
allow the east coast sea breeze to move through the metro areas and 
focus showers and storms near the Lake Okeechobee and interior 
regions Tuesday.

Long Term (Wednesday-Sunday): High pressure located over the 
Atlantic with a ridge across North Central Florida. Moisture will 
increase with a prominent southeast flow across the region. This 
will bring South Florida PWATs around 2 inches. This will increase 
shower and thunderstorm chances and coverage. A more summer type 
pattern of showers and thunderstorms concentrating during the 
afternoon and evening across the interior and Gulf coast areas. 
Meanwhile, east coastal areas will see showers and storms during the 
night and morning hours. 

MARINE...
A light to moderate SE wind around 10 to 15 knots will develop and
persist through the work week. Seas will be generally 2 to 4 
feet. Chances for scattered thunderstorms will be on the increase 
by mid to late week.

FIRE WEATHER... Dry air and low relative humidity values below 
critical levels continue this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning 
remains in effect for Glades and Hendry counties and inland 
sections of Collier County from until 7 PM. Similar conditions 
expected on Monday and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for 
Glades and Hendry counties. Collier County seems to remain above 
critical values for Monday but will monitor this closely. Model 
trends continue to improve moisture and RH values above critical 
levels beginning on Tuesday. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  76  92  77  93 /   0  10  10  10 
Fort Lauderdale  77  91  80  91 /  10  10  10  10 
Miami            78  94  79  92 /  10  10  10  10 
Naples           75  92  76  93 /   0  10  10  20 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening 
     for FLZ063-066.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...33/Kelly

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations