Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS62 KMFL 202351
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
651 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly tonight into Tuesday at most of the
taf sites, except becoming westerly around 20Z at KAPF on Tuesday.
The speeds will be around 5 mph tonight before increasing to
around 10 mph on Tuesday. The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR
conditions through Tuesday.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather over South Florida today, due to a ridge at 500mb
over the area, and a surface high, centered well to the north.
This will continue tomorrow, with the ridge and sfc high slowly
sliding east, ahead of a strong system, currently over the plains,
nearing the Mississippi river valley. 

This system will bring our next opportunity for active weather for
the middle of the week. Both the GFS and the ECMWF have a 500mb
cutoff low dropping down, pinching off from the main flow Tuesday
night, centered near New Orleans late Wednesday evening. The low
moves into the eastern gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning. This will
push moisture and instability into the region early Wednesday
morning. PoPs begin showing up in the forecast between 06z and 12z
Wednesday, with a chance of showers along both coasts, and a
slight chance in much of the interior, mainly due to some
isentropic lift ahead of the system.

By mid day Wednesday, a cold front takes better shape, bringing
the threat show thunderstorms to South Florida, mainly from 
Wednesday afternoon into late Wednesday evening. There is a 
35-45kt low level jet Wednesday afternoon and evening as well, 
mainly affecting the southern portion of South Florida. This may 
help to amplify any storms that do develop. The models are 
showing the front to be off the Atlantic coast by 12z Thursday 
morning. The actual surface low is currently progged to pass 
across the Florida peninsula Thursday morning, somewhere over 
Central Florida. Models are indicating there may be some wrap 
around showers that may affect the CWA on Thursday, mainly in the 
morning hours.

Given there is no significant cold air mass, the highs will be
slightly cooler on Wednesday and Thursday, probably do to cloud
cover, not cold advection. By Friday, highs will be back into the
mid 80's across the region.

For the end of the week, and the weekend, models are showing a
return to mostly quiet weather for South Florida. 

MARINE...
marine conditions for the next week will be relatively quiet, 
with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday, when a low pressure 
system bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms to the 
region. The seas are forecast to build slightly for the middle of 
the week, currently to around 4 feet in the Gulf stream, then 
subside some by the weekend.

The easterly wind today and tomorrow will place a moderate risk 
of rip currents in the forecast for Tuesday along the east coast.
The wind is forecast to turn more southeasterly, and increase on
Wednesday, which may increase the threat of rip currents to high,
especially for Miami Beach. With the frontal passage, and the wind
turning westerly, the threat of rip will diminish quickly
Thursday morning.

AVIATION...
Easterly winds around 10 KT will continue through 21/0000Z, then
decrease to light overnight. There may be some patchy fog 
overnight near Lake Okeechobee, but should not affect any of the
TAF sites. A southeast Atlantic sea breeze will begin aft 
21/1500Z, increasing to 10-12 KT. A light gulf breeze may also 
develop toward the early afternoon. Partly cloudy skies should
persist through the period. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  66  80  68  77 /   0   0  20  80 
Fort Lauderdale  68  80  70  78 /   0  10  30  70 
Miami            66  80  69  80 /   0  10  30  70 
Naples           63  81  66  73 /   0   0  20  80 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations