Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS62 KMFL 271712 AAC AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 112 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. VCTS will be possible at the east coast sites until about 20z before activity becomes focused in the interior. VCTS will be possible through 02z at KAPF as interior storms and additional activity are possible over the Gulf Coast. Winds will be east/southeast around 10 knots at the east coast sites, and west/southwest at KAPF, becoming light and variable overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ UPDATE... As of 945 AM EDT...Ongoing forecast requires little changes other than a few tweaks based on the latest observations and trends. It will be another hot day across the region, with many areas seeing heat indices top out around 105 degrees late this morning and into the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop initially along the Atlantic sea breeze by the early afternoon before becoming focused over the interior. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ DISCUSSION... Today through Friday: Upper trough over Southern GA and Northern FL will move further south today into Friday before it gets pick up by deepening trough along the northeast plains. This will erode the ridge that has been over the area the last several days with a more southerly flow expected today and southwest by Friday. Saharan dust tracking through Cuba doesn't look quite as robust as the previous event, and models continue to move the bulk of it just to our south. While we will be on the northern fridge of this airmass, it does look to help reinforce the dry mid levels already in place. However, there is still scattered showers and storms possible in the interior and west with sea breezes. As steering flow shifts more towards the southwest Friday, best chance of convection will be concentrated in the interior and build to the east coast metro areas. This will also limit the east sea breeze development on Friday. High temperatures will remain above normal ranging from the low to mid 90s interior and upper 80s along the immediate coasts. Dewpoints will lower into the 70s today and Friday helping keep heat indices in the 100-107 range. Conditions will remain below advisory criteria at this time for the remainder of the week. This weekend and next week: Southwesterly flow prevails as upper level low over the northeast plains deepens a trough along the east coast. This trough is expected to remain in place through next week, potentially digging as far south to Fl. The trough is expected to drive an unseasonably robust surface front into the state by early next week, potentially reaching as far south as Lake Okeechobee. This will result in a wet period through the week across South Florida, with a few more stronger storms possible as temps aloft cool down. MARINE... Weakening ridge will keep winds southeasterly around 10 knots through the end of the week, before veering more south-southwest this weekend as a front sags into North Florida. Expect both the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes to develop today, with the Atlantic breeze struggling to develop Friday as winds shift more southwest. Afternoon showers and storms will generally remain over the interior, with more isolated activity over the open waters during the nights and morning. Coverage of showers and storms expected to increase as we head into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 80 95 79 93 / 20 50 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 82 93 80 93 / 30 40 30 30 Miami 81 93 79 93 / 30 40 30 30 Naples 78 93 79 90 / 20 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.