Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS62 KMFL 240027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
727 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Broken line of showers over eastern Palm Beach extending to
central Broward at 720pm moving eastward with lighter more 
isolated activity farther south and west. This line of heavier 
activity should mostly move into the Atlantic by late evening. For
the rest of the night, showers over the southern and eastern 
portions of South Florida will consist of mainly light to 
moderate isolated to scattered activity. Made slight adjustments 
to PoPs based on latest radar and HRRR. Slowed down the rate of 
temperatures falling overnight. No change was made to the forecast
low temperatures for Wednesday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018/ 

AVIATION...Band of showers with the occasional storm moving into
region this evening just ahead of cold front. VCSH for all sites
generally through 04Z-08Z, with storm threat too low to include in
the TAFs at this time. Front moving in around same time with winds
becoming light NW. Models suggest prevailing IFR-MVFR cigs coming
in with front, lingering through most of Wed as front stalls just
to the south. SHRA chances expected to return for KFLL-KTMB late

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018/ 

Short Term (This afternoon through Wednesday night): Slow moving 
cold front is responsible for showers and a few thunderstorms that
have been occurring this afternoon, mainly over northern portions
of South Florida, including the Lake region. This activity will 
be migrating eastward through the early afternoon hours. The cold 
front will move through South Florida tonight. The air does not 
become drier very quickly behind the front. With light winds, I
added patchy fog to the grids for the overnight period. Expect a 
chance of showers to persist through Wednesday night, mainly 
across southern and eastern portions of South Florida. 

The cold front has been weakening significantly as it moves 
southeastward, so this cold front will not bring air as cold as 
the fronts earlier this month. The coldest night will be 
Wednesday night, when lows are forecast to range from the upper 
40s in Glades County to the lower 60s along the southeast beaches.

Medium Range (Thursday-Saturday): Strong high pressure building 
in over the eastern U.S. behind the front will bring clearing 
skies and drier weather for late this week. The main story will 
be the very strong pressure gradient and strong winds. Thursday 
into Saturday, winds of 20-30 kt with gusts approaching gale force
are forecast for the Atlantic waters. Winds will be NE Thursday, 
gradually veering to E by late Friday.

Long Term (Saturday night through Tuesday):
GFS and ECMWF develop a low pressure trough near the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico around the Sunday time frame. The models are in a
little better agreement than they had previously been on the
timing for bringing this feature across Florida. Increasing
moisture and rain chances are likely for South Florida, especially
Sunday afternoon into Monday. Behind the system, somewhat cooler
air can be expected as we head into the middle portion of next

A cold front will pass through South Florida tonight, with a 
chance of showers persisting over the waters into Wednesday night. 
Hazardous northerly winds are expected to develop along with rough
seas Wednesday night into Thursday, then remain strong into the 
weekend as they turn easterly. For the Atlantic waters, seas in 
the 7 to 9 foot range, with winds of 20-30 kt and gusts near gale
force will be possible later this week.

The rip current risk may increase on Atlantic waters by late 
Wednesday, and especially on Thursday as breezy north winds 
impact the region. The winds will shift to NE on Thursday in 
excess on 20 kt and become east on Friday, still over 20 kt. A 
high risk of rip currents is likely Friday into Saturday on 
Atlantic beaches, when the strong winds will be out of the east.


West Palm Beach  64  74  57  70 /  50  10  20   0 
Fort Lauderdale  67  76  60  71 /  40  30  30  10 
Miami            66  77  61  72 /  30  30  30  10 
Naples           63  75  53  73 /  10  10  10   0 




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations