Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS62 KMFL 271712 AAC
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
112 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. VCTS
will be possible at the east coast sites until about 20z before
activity becomes focused in the interior. VCTS will be possible
through 02z at KAPF as interior storms and additional activity are
possible over the Gulf Coast. Winds will be east/southeast around
10 knots at the east coast sites, and west/southwest at KAPF,
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ 

UPDATE...
As of 945 AM EDT...Ongoing forecast requires little changes other
than a few tweaks based on the latest observations and trends. It
will be another hot day across the region, with many areas seeing
heat indices top out around 105 degrees late this morning and into
the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop initially along the Atlantic sea breeze by the
early afternoon before becoming focused over the interior. High
temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: Upper trough over Southern GA and Northern FL 
will move further south today into Friday before it gets pick up by 
deepening trough along the northeast plains. This will erode the 
ridge that has been over the area the last several days with a more 
southerly flow expected today and southwest by Friday. Saharan dust 
tracking through Cuba doesn't look quite as robust as the previous 
event, and models continue to move the bulk of it just to our south. 
While we will be on the northern fridge of this airmass, it does 
look to help reinforce the dry mid levels already in place. However, 
there is still scattered showers and storms possible in the interior 
and west with sea breezes. As steering flow shifts more towards the 
southwest Friday, best chance of convection will be concentrated in 
the interior and build to the east coast metro areas. This will also 
limit the east sea breeze development on Friday. High temperatures 
will remain above normal ranging from the low to mid 90s interior 
and upper 80s along the immediate coasts. Dewpoints will lower into 
the 70s today and Friday helping keep heat indices in the 100-107 
range. Conditions will remain below advisory criteria at this time 
for the remainder of the week. 

This weekend and next week: Southwesterly flow prevails as upper 
level low over the northeast plains deepens a trough along the 
east coast. This trough is expected to remain in place through 
next week, potentially digging as far south to Fl. The trough is 
expected to drive an unseasonably robust surface front into the 
state by early next week, potentially reaching as far south as 
Lake Okeechobee. This will result in a wet period through the week
across South Florida, with a few more stronger storms possible as
temps aloft cool down. 

MARINE...
Weakening ridge will keep winds southeasterly around 10 knots 
through the end of the week, before veering more south-southwest
this weekend as a front sags into North Florida. Expect both the 
Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes to develop today, with the Atlantic 
breeze struggling to develop Friday as winds shift more southwest.
Afternoon showers and storms will generally remain over the interior,
with more isolated activity over the open waters during the nights
and morning. Coverage of showers and storms expected to increase 
as we head into the weekend. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  80  95  79  93 /  20  50  30  40 
Fort Lauderdale  82  93  80  93 /  30  40  30  30 
Miami            81  93  79  93 /  30  40  30  30 
Naples           78  93  79  90 /  20  20  30  30 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations