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fxus62 kmfl 221141 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
641 am EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Aviation...fog across the region this morn with MVFR vsybs along
East Coast and occasional IFR over interior/West Coast. Fog Burns
off after 14z, with VFR expected through rest of taf cycle. Light/vrb
winds this morn become east-northeast 6-10kts along East Coast and west at kapf
after 17z, then light/vrb again after sunset. Occasional rain showers
possible after 20z, but mainly over interior so no mention in tafs
at this point.


Previous discussion... /issued 351 am EST Wed Nov 22 2017/

firmly within the warm sector, South Florida should see another
slightly drier day though some showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out later today. The amplifying mid-level trough remains
over the northern Gulf of Mexico with various shortwave troughs
rounding it. As the shortwaves move across the region, upticks in
shower and thunderstorm activity are possible.

Heading into Thanksgiving day, the mid-level trough will push
closer with the surface features potentially developing into a
surface low somewhere over the northeastern Gulf. The associated
front will likely push across the area on Friday as the system
pushes northeastward across the peninsula. The convection
associated with this system could produce gusty wind and heavy
rainfall. While the best dynamics appear to be north of the
region, the availability of wind shear Thursday into Friday will
need to be monitored as any convection that can tap into it could
potentially create a severe weather threat.

Conditions should begin to dry out on Saturday as the drier air
begins to move in behind the system. Some remnant elevated wrap
around moisture could allow for some light rain, so a mention
remains in the forecast for Saturday though it should be
relatively short-lived. With the passage of a reinforcing cold
front to close out the weekend, next week will start with drier
and colder air moving into the region. While this taste of the dry
season will provide some chilly mornings and maximum temperatures
that will struggle to reach 80 over much of the area, it will
have access to any significantly colder air which should keep
temperatures from dipping much below the 50s even in the northern
interior portions of the forecast area.

Marine...conditions across the area waters should remain fairly
benign until the front passes later in the week, though some
showers and thunderstorms could produce locally higher winds and
seas. Behind the front this weekend, increasing wind and building
seas will likely create some hazardous marine conditions.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 82 70 82 70 / 20 30 60 50
Fort Lauderdale 83 72 83 72 / 20 30 60 50
Miami 84 72 83 72 / 20 20 60 50
Naples 82 69 81 70 / 10 20 60 50


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


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