Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
625 am CDT Wednesday Aug 31 2016
updated to include the 12z aviation discussion below.
Previous discussion... /issued 204 am CDT Wednesday Aug 31 2016/
The strong upper ridge that has persisted over the mid-south over
the last several days will retreat to the southwest today. A cold
front that is currently located near the Missouri and Iowa border
will begin to sink south. By late this afternoon, expect the front
to be just south of the St. Louis. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the entire mid-south this
Today will be the last day of hot and humid conditions for at
least a couple of days. Expect heat indices to reach between 100
and 105 degrees this afternoon.
The front will move through the mid-south late tonight into
Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front.
By Thursday afternoon, cooler and drier air will begin to filter
into the mid-south.
Thursday night through the early part of the weekend will be
pleasant as surface high pressure over the Great Lakes builds into
the region. Highs will in the 80s with lows ranging from the
upper 50s to upper 60s.
By the latter part of the weekend into early next week, the upper
ridge will build back over the mid-south. As a result,
temperatures and humidity levels will begin to creep back up.
Can't rule out an isolated diurnal shower or thunderstorm
developing over eastern Arkansas Monday and Tuesday afternoons as
Patchy fog continues to affect some of the low spots, including
kmkl at times, but will erode by ~13z. Expect a diurnal cu field
at or just above 4500 ft this afternoon with north to northeast
winds of 5-9 kts. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon, but spatial uncertainty will preclude
mention from the 12z tafs. Any convection that develops should
dissipate by 01z.