Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 291221 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 721 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ A calm morning is ongoing around the Mid-South currently, with temperatures in the lower 70s under mostly clear skies. Latest surface analysis depicts an anticyclone centered off the coast of North Carolina, resulting in southerly surface flow around the local area. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with moisture advection ensuing by influence of the southerly flow. This will allow for more cloud cover than in recent days, as well as a return of showers and thunderstorms, most likely across northern Mississippi. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms areawide will come on Friday as a weak shortwave trough moves over the region with highs again in the mid to upper 80s. By late Friday a stronger upper level trough develops over the Plains, with an attendant surface low deepening over the Midwest. A front associated with this feature will migrate toward the Mid-South late Friday and into Saturday. This will be the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a few storms potentially strong to severe with SBCAPE values near 2000 J/KG on Friday night. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with any severe storm, with heavy rainfall also possible at times as PWAT values will be near 2.00". Supported by the progressive upper trough, the front will gradually move east of the region by late Saturday. Surface high pressure builds back into the region for late in the weekend, but northwesterly to zonal flow aloft will keep conditions unsettled as several weak impulses will lend to shower and thunderstorm chances daily for the first half of the week. By midweek models begin to develop a closed upper low to the west of the FA, which would enhance precipitation chances for mid to late week. Daily high temperatures next week will be just slightly cooler than normal for late June and early July, while overnight lows will be near normal. ZDM && .AVIATION...12z TAFs VFR conditions will persist through the day at KMEM and KMKL. MVFR cigs will likely develop this morning at KJBR, with IFR cigs to start at KTUP. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR at KJBR and KTUP later this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, with the greatest coverage at KTUP where a tempo has been added. Winds will increase today from the south with higher gusts. Winds should slowly diminish late this evening. Additional low stratus with reduced cigs and vsbys can be expected tonight with widespread IFR cigs expected before sunrise Friday morning. JLH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None.