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FXUS64 KMEG 291221

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
721 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017


Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ 

A calm morning is ongoing around the Mid-South currently, with 
temperatures in the lower 70s under mostly clear skies. Latest 
surface analysis depicts an anticyclone centered off the coast of 
North Carolina, resulting in southerly surface flow around the 
local area. 

Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon,
with moisture advection ensuing by influence of the southerly
flow. This will allow for more cloud cover than in recent days, 
as well as a return of showers and thunderstorms, most likely 
across northern Mississippi. A better chance for showers and 
thunderstorms areawide will come on Friday as a weak shortwave 
trough moves over the region with highs again in the mid to upper 

By late Friday a stronger upper level trough develops over
the Plains, with an attendant surface low deepening over the
Midwest. A front associated with this feature will migrate toward
the Mid-South late Friday and into Saturday. This will be the best
chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a few storms
potentially strong to severe with SBCAPE values near 2000 J/KG on
Friday night. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with any 
severe storm, with heavy rainfall also possible at times as PWAT 
values will be near 2.00". Supported by the progressive upper 
trough, the front will gradually move east of the region by late 

Surface high pressure builds back into the region for late in the
weekend, but northwesterly to zonal flow aloft will keep
conditions unsettled as several weak impulses will lend to shower
and thunderstorm chances daily for the first half of the week. By
midweek models begin to develop a closed upper low to the west of
the FA, which would enhance precipitation chances for mid to late
week. Daily high temperatures next week will be just slightly 
cooler than normal for late June and early July, while overnight 
lows will be near normal.




VFR conditions will persist through the day at KMEM and KMKL. MVFR
cigs will likely develop this morning at KJBR, with IFR cigs to
start at KTUP. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR at KJBR
and KTUP later this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible today, with the greatest coverage
at KTUP where a tempo has been added. 

Winds will increase today from the south with higher gusts. Winds
should slowly diminish late this evening.

Additional low stratus with reduced cigs and vsbys can be expected
tonight with widespread IFR cigs expected before sunrise Friday




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