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FXUS64 KMEG 220220

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
920 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018


No updates are planned at this time.



High pressure will continue to settle over the Mid South this
evening and will provide favorable conditions for radiational
cooling later tonight. This should support another frost/freeze
situations across portions of the area by morning. Frost and
freeze headlines remain in place. No updates are planned for this
evening as the forecast looks in good shape. 



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018/ 

Early afternoon temperatures are currently in the upper 40s to 
middle 50s and will trend warmer over the next few days. We will
see another chance of frost and even freezing temperatures
tonight, but it should be the last for a while. The coldest
portions of the midsouth, near the Tennessee River may dip into
the upper 20s briefly with much of the remainder of the West
Tennessee near or slightly below freezing. The a large portion of
the remainder of the Midsouth could see frost, but should remain 
above freezing. Morning lows should be in the 33 to 36 degree 
range. Near Tunica and South into the Delta morning lows should be
above freezing. Frost can damage any unprotected sensitive 
vegetation and freezing temperatures may kill any unprotected 

Morning lows Friday should be well above freezing mainly in the 
low to middle 40s. Highs Friday are expected to warm into the 
middle 60s to low 70s. A ridge will build over the Plains over the
next couple days resulting in strong Northwest flow by Friday. At
the surface south winds will return to the Midsouth, initially
West of the Mississippi River then gradually shifting East with
time. This will pump deep moisture back across the area increasing
the chance for rain and Thunderstorms. Late Friday into early  
Saturday a weakening surface low will track out of the Central 
Plains across Missouri. A warm front will be oriented across 
Kentucky into Missouri with a cold front trailing the surface low 
stretching down into East Texas. Guidance still has the bulk of 
the precipitation/thunderstorms to our North along the warm front 
with minimal activity along and ahead of the cold front. WPC has
lowered rainfall accumulation over the weekend drastically, from
near 2 inches in the Missouri Bootheel down to only a half of an
inch and very little accumulation in North Mississippi. Confidence
remains low regarding the overall weather pattern over the 
weekend into early next week. However, it does look more likely
that the heaviest rainfall will be well to our North. SPC is not
advertising the threat of severe storms in their extended 
products and WPC does not highlight any of the Midsouth for
excessive rainfall. 

A cold front should move across the Midsouth early Sunday. 
Slightly cooler, but near normal conditions are expected Sunday 
into early next week. There may be a few showers around but it 
does not like there will be any organized threat of strong or severe
storms. High temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s to mid 
70s Monday into Tuesday.



00Z TAFs

VFR conds will persist over the next 24 hours. Northerly winds
will become nearly calm overnight as surface high pressure
settles in. Winds will be variable and less than 6 kts tomorrow 
afternoon before eventually shifting to the south near the end of
the period. 



AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for Clay-Craighead-

MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for Dunklin-

MS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe-

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for Alcorn-Benton 

TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for Shelby.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for Benton TN-

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