Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmeg 201734 
afdmeg

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Update...
updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1106 am CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

Discussion...water vapor satellite trends along with 12z upper
air analysis indicates an upper level ridge of high pressure
situated across the lower Mississippi Valley this morning. This is
resulting in rain free weather across the mid-south. As of 11 am
CDT, temperatures across the mid south are already in the 90s
across many locations and heat index values reaching or exceeding
105 degrees across a few locations near Memphis and portions of
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. Overall forecast is
in great shape and shower and thunderstorm chances are anticipated
to remain minimal at best over northeast Mississippi into this
afternoon.

Cjc

Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

Discussion...
hot hot hot! The heat and humidity will continue through at least
Friday also dry conditions will remain to with the exception of
the extreme southeast part of the forecast area where there is a
slight chance of some precipitation during the afternoon today and
tomorrow. This is due to an upper level disturbance moving west
along the Gulf Coast, which is allowing more moisture at all
levels to be pushed into the area.

The high pressure currently over the mid-south will weaken over
the weekend along a frontal system moving toward the area from the
Great Plains and an upper level disturbance along the Gulf Coast.
These will combine to allow for a more unsettled weather over the
weekend including precipitation.

Early next week the frontal system moves through the area allowing
for more precipitation, however, the frontal system is different
in many of the models. Yet we should have some chance for
thunderstorms for much of the mid-south from Sunday through
Tuesday. For the rest of the forecast air mass thunderstorms are
still possible.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the upper 90s and with
dew points in the mid 70s the heat index values will be 105 to 109
across the mid-south. The heat advisory has been expanded for the
entire County Warning Area for today. Also continued the heat
advisory into Friday with the exception of northeast Mississippi
as not confident enough that heat index values will reach above
105 Friday afternoon.

Tlsjr/csc

&&

Aviation...
/18z tafs/

Scattered cu around 5000 ft will persist through late afternoon
but will dissipate after sunset. Expect generally clear skies
overnight with patchy MVFR visibilities around kmkl. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Winds will
remain light.

Johnson

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Clay-Craighead-
Crittenden-cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee Arkansas-Mississippi-
Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-
Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-Yalobusha.

Heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lee MS-Monroe-Pontotoc-Prentiss-
Tippah-Tishomingo-Union.

Tennessee...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-
Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations