Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 230852
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
352 am CDT sun Jul 23 2017
unsettled weather pattern this week with hot temperatures
continuing through the week. However, we should get some relief
early this week as a frontal system drops across the mid-south on
Monday bringing with it some clouds and rain.
Each day this week there is a chance of rain in the mid-south as
either frontal systems move across the area or afternoon and
evening thunderstorms develop under a high pressure system.
Temperatures and humidity on Sunday continue to be high resulting
in heat index values from 104 to 109 degrees across the mid-south.
On Monday, it looks like we get a little relief, however, some
places will flirt with 105. The clouds and precipitation will
determine the rest of the week as it looks like we might return to
heat advisory criteria in the middle of the week, however, only
going to issue the advisory for today. Other days this week, there
are too many things that must occur to get the heat index values
A good frontal system will move into the region Friday, bringing
rain Friday into Saturday along with cooler temperatures. With
both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) dropping the 850 mb temperatures by almost
10 degrees celsius by next weekend.
Light winds and VFR to prevail overnight. Boundary layer winds
should be sufficient to keep widespread light fog from forming.
Main concern continues to be thunderstorms and rain chances during the day,
associated with surface heating. North MS will be most favored, as
in previous days. Thereafter, an approaching surface front may
serve as a focus for thunderstorms and rain late in the afternoon and early evening
at jbr. The NAM develops a cold pool sufficient for maintaining
thunderstorms and rain into the posts sunset hours, which could affect mem and mkl.
Arkansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
MO...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Tennessee...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-