Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
238 am CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016
An active weather pattern will set up over the mid-south today
and will continue through at least the early part of the weekend.
Today, a weak upper level low will move into northwest Mississippi
and will dissolve over the area by Thursday. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will occur over the Delta. The
convection will start developing after sunrise and will increase
in coverage by the afternoon hours. The convection and abundant
cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Some storms could produce localized heavy rainfall which could
lead to flash flooding.
For Thursday into at least the early part of the weekend, a broad
upper trough will move in over the region. Several shortwaves will
move through the trough setting off waves of shower and
thunderstorm activity. For Thursday, best chances for convection
will occur across northeast Mississippi and areas of west
Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Beyond Thursday, trying to
pinpoint the timing of the shortwaves triggering the waves of
convection is harder to do. Regardless, higher chances for rain
will occur through the period. The convection and cloud cover will
keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s though the period.
Localized heavy rainfall will remain a threat through the period.
By the latter part of the weekend into Monday, the upper trough
will begin shifting east. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
will decrease from west to east. Temperatures will begin to
rebound into the lower 90s especially by Monday as an upper ridge
begins to build into the area.
The ridge will strengthen over the area on Tuesday. Expect
convection chances to become more diurnally based and more
isolated in coverage. Would not be surprised to see highs creep
back into the mid 90s in a few locations.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue overnight and through most of
Wednesday before lower clouds move in Wednesday evening producing
MVFR ceilings. Some fog is possible overnight over northern
sections of the forecast area. Thunderstorms will start to develop
Wednesday morning and will continue through much of the afternoon
and evening hours. Winds will be mainly from the southeast at 5 to
10 knots for most of the forecast period.