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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
345 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Discussion...

Currently...this afternoon.
As of 3pm, temperatures throughout the mid-south are slightly
below normal but humidity values in the low to mid 70s still
make it seem quite uncomfortable outside. The mid-south is
currently free of thunderstorms but a few strong discrete cells
currently over central Arkansas continue to slowly move eastward
towards the area. Short term models including the hrrr and rap,
have not picked up on this feature. However, it's hard to believe
in a solution where these storms don't impact at least the
western counties of our warning area this afternoon before they
fall apart. The main threats with any storms this afternoon will
be straight line wind damage.

Short term...tonight through Monday.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight throughout
the mid-south as a weak upper level shortwave moves through the
region. Slightly warmer conditions are expected on Sunday. The
warmer temperatures coupled with increased low level moisture
could lead to heat index values near 100 degrees. More afternoon
thunderstorms are also expected tomorrow as another shortwave
disturbance embedded in upper northwest flow aloft moves through the
mid-MS valley. Strong storms will be possible with straight line
winds remaining as the primary threat. Upper level heights will
continue to build over the plains on Sunday and by Monday the mid-
south will be on the eastern periphery of a steep upper level
ridge. This will result in warmer temperatures and more diurnally
driven thunderstorms Monday.

Long term...Tuesday through next weekend.
A warm start to August is expected for the mid-south. Models
agree on a broad upper ridge building and remaining parked over
the central U.S. Throughout most of the upcoming work week. High
temperatures will range from the low to mid 90's throughout the
work week. Southerly flow near the surface will result in humid
conditions. Heat indices will flirt with heat advisory criteria
from Tuesday through at least Friday. Diurnally driven
thunderstorms will be possible each day. Further out in the
Atlantic Ocean, the NHC has given a tropical wave a 60% chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.

Jpm3

&&

Aviation...
18z tafs

A few short term thunderstorms and rain concerns to near the southern vicinity of
tup, associated with an exiting midlevel disturbance and trailing
surface boundary. Upstream thunderstorms and rain was noted on radar moving from
northeast OK into northwest Arkansas. The parent shortwave circulation
associated with this activity will not likely reach the jbr or
mem areas until after daytime heating has peaked. As such,
hrrr/NAM/RUC models and associated soundings show limited chances
for thunderstorms and rain formation near the midsouth terminals through early evening.

Light or calm winds, residual low level moisture and scattered
high clouds will lead to areas of fog/low stratus toward 12z.
Otherwise, VFR through 18z.

Pwb

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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