Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 241734
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1234 PM CDT Wed may 24 2017
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 311 am CDT Wed may 24 2017/
At 3 am CDT, latest 500 mb analysis depicts an upper low centered over
southern Iowa and northern Missouri with a trough axis extending
southward through central Arkansas. A ridge of high pressure is
located well off the Atlantic Seaboard, with southwest flow aloft
over the local region between these two features. Resultant
showers are ongoing around the mid-south as weak impulses embedded
in this flow move over the region. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue this morning and into the afternoon as
the trough axis moves over the region.
High will widely be in the upper 60s today with cloud cover and
rain inhibiting temperatures from warming into the 70s. Showers
and thunderstorms will gradually diminish this afternoon from west
to east as the trough axis migrates eastward while the upper low
centers over the region. Thus some showers will still be possible
into Wednesday night.
Clearing skies will ensue on Thursday as upper heights build over
the region and temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 70s.
The ridge becomes more centered over the region on Friday, when a
surface warm front surges north of the region, with southerly flow
returning, allowing warm moist air to advect into the region. This
will allow Friday and Saturday highs to warm well into the 80s
with humid conditions present as dewpoint temperatures near 70
degrees. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Friday
and Saturday with warm and humid air abundant at the surface
resulting in ample instability, however forcing will be limited
and the environment will have quite a bit of cin to overcome for
convection. Thus kept chance pops for showers and storms early
Saturday and Saturday afternoon.
A surface front begins to approach the region late Saturday, with
instability still abundant as dewpoint values remain in the 70s.
With the forcing from the front, Saturday night and early Sunday
currently stand the best chance for a few strong to severe storms
around the region. By early Monday the front will have pushed into
the southeast portion of the fa, with rain chances ending by
early Tuesday. Temperatures on Sunday through midweek will be a
bit cooler than average in the wake of the front.
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions should persist for much of the forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the forecast
area mainly during the afternoon hours. Some fog may develop
overnight over eastern portions of the forecast area. Winds will
be mainly from the west at 5 to 10 knots for much of the forecast