Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 261122
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
622 am CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
updated for 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 332 am CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/
A weak cold front is moving across the midsouth...currently
located along a line from Paris, Tennessee to Jonesboro to Little Rock.
Light rain showers have developed along the boundary in central
Arkansas tracking to the east. Portions of the midsouth including
the Memphis Metro area may see a bit of light rain around sunrise
this morning. Any accumulation should be minimal. Temperatures
will remain seasonably mild today. Temperatures this morning will
range from the upper 50s to upper 60s with afternoon highs in the
low to middle 80s.
Fairly quiet weather is expected over the next few days. Latest
guidance continues to trend warmer after midweek...and is now
looking a bit wetter by Thursday with enhanced pops continuing
through next weekend. Northwest flow today and tomorrow will
deamplify by midweek becoming zonal across the midsouth. Surface
high pressure will set up along the East Coast resulting in
return flow over the southern Mississippi River valley.
Temperatures are now expected to rebound to near normal by
Wednesday...near 90 degrees. Afternoon thunderstorms will become
increasingly likely after midweek. The midsouth will be on the
northwest edge of high pressure centered over the deep south with
a shallow trough over the western Great Lakes/northern plains. A
series of disturbances will track to our north with a cold front
stalling to our north late in the work week. Scattered
thunderstorms...most numerous in the afternoon are expected
Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal.
VFR this period with a few showers dissipating early near
mem. Redevelopment is expected later with mkl most likely to
see activity on site. Light winds will become north through
east at 5-6 kts...diminishing to light and variable by sunset.