Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmeg 281119 
afdmeg

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
619 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Update...
updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 404 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

Discussion...

Dense fog developed quickly early this morning across northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, and west Tennessee as some
clearing took place behind the cold front. Visibilities have
since come up in some locations while others remain low. Will
leave dense fog advisory as is for now and will re-access around
sunrise.

After a busy 24 hours, the weather should be a little more tranquil
for at least the next 36 hours. The cold front will stall out
this morning over central Mississippi. The front will begin
lifting back northward as a warm front tonight. As a result, small
chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur in locations in
the vicinity of the front. Thus will keep 20 pops today for
locations south of a Clarksdale to Tupelo, Mississippi line. The
small chances for convection will shift northward tonight and will
linger across northwest Tennessee, the Missouri bootheel, and
northeast Arkansas Wednesday morning. Highs today will range from
the upper 60s to the mid 70s. On Wednesday, winds will turn around
to the south behind the warm front. With little convection
expected, expect temperatures to shoot up into the upper 70s to
mid 80s.

These warm temperatures will help create a moderately unstable
airmass across at least western portions of the mid-south by late
Wednesday afternoon. Severe thunderstorms will develop over
Arkansas Wednesday afternoon in association with the lead
shortwave ahead of an approaching low pressure system. As the
storms push into eastern Arkansas Wednesday evening, the low-level
jet is expected to strengthen helping maintain strength of the
storms. An enhanced risk has been expanded into portions of
eastern Arkansas for Wednesday evening. The storms will likely
begin weakening once they cross the Mississippi River after
midnight due to the loss of daytime heating.

The convection will linger across areas of west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi Thursday morning. Once
the convection pushes out of the area, all eyes will be waiting to
see how quickly the atmosphere recovers. All models are in
agreement, that destabilization will take place pretty quickly
across the mid-south as a potent upper trof moves into the region
Thursday afternoon. Another round of severe storms is expected
to develop in association with the upper trof. An enhanced risk
has been issued for most of the County Warning Area for Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night.

Lingering showers on the backside of the departing upper low will
occur Friday morning across much of west Tennessee. Otherwise, clearing
should take place by Friday afternoon. Upper ridging will then begin
to occur over the area by Friday night into most of the weekend.
Thus expect a pleasant and dry weekend with highs in the mid 60s
to upper 70s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to occur again by
Sunday night into the beginning of next week as another upper
level low pressure system moves into the region.

Krm

&&

Aviation...
/12z tafs/

Areas of dense fog have persist throughout the early morning hours
over west Tennessee but will gradually improve over the next few hours.
We should see additional MVFR ceilings develop after sunrise as a
strato-cu deck forms with the onset of surface heating. Generally
VFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening, but
there could be a few showers and/or thunderstorms across north MS,
potentially affecting the ktup taf. Low clouds are likely to
develop late tonight into Wednesday morning. Light north to
northeast winds today will gradually veer more easterly overnight.

Johnson

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for Clay-
Craighead-Greene-Lawrence-Mississippi-Randolph.

MO...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for Dunklin-
Pemiscot.

MS...none.
Tennessee...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for Benton Tennessee-
Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Gibson-Hardeman-
Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
McNairy-Obion-Tipton-Weakley.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations