Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 152330
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
530 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
updated to include the 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 356 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/
High pressure will gradually move east tonight. Pesky cirrus
clouds have lingered over northeast Mississippi this afternoon,
but expect them to clear out by early this evening. Skies should
remain mostly clear for the remainder of the evening. Lows will
drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Southerly winds and warm air advection will bring warmer
temperatures into the area for Saturday as the high shifts over
the southeast Atlantic coast. Highs will be in the mid to upper
Models are in good agreement with rain spreading into the area
after midnight as a surface low develops along a stalled front near
the Gulf Coast. The surface low will move quickly thus expect rain to
taper off between 9 am to noon from west to east. Only expect
isolated light showers to occur during the afternoon hours.
The area will remain underneath southwest flow aloft through early
next week. Another surface wave may skirt northeast Mississippi
Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Although, the European model (ecmwf) and NAM
keep the system a little further south than yesterdays run
compared to the GFS. For now will keep probability of precipitation from current forecast
that leans a little closer to the GFS.
Models really diverge by Tuesday into Wednesday. The GFS brings
high pressure into the region while the European model (ecmwf) brings a low
pressure system across the mid-south with rainfall. For now have
leaned toward the GFS.
Overall, temperatures will remain above normal next week has highs
start creeping back into the lower to mid 60s.
Models are a little slower with the cold front at the end of next
week. The European model (ecmwf) brings the front in Thursday night while the GFS
is Friday. Showers will occur ahead of the front, but the biggest
impact may be the Arctic air that will move into the region behind
the front. Models show the Arctic air staying in place next
weekend as several surface lows bring precipitation possibly of the
winter type into the mid-south. Everyone with Holiday travel plans
should pay attention to the forecast next week as detail become
High clouds will persist along/south of I-40 tonight,
overspreading the remainder of the mid-south on Saturday. No
ceilings are anticipated below 20 kft with VFR conditions
prevailing throughout the period. Light south winds overnight will
increase on Saturday, gusting to 15-20 kts at most terminals
during the afternoon hours.