Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 230533
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1133 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017
Updated for the 06z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 937 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
Cold high pressure is settling over the region with clear skies
and light winds. Expect lows mostly in the 20s. Forecast on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 222 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
High pressure will build into the region tonight and dominate our
weather through Thanksgiving. Tonight is expected to be one of
the coldest nights of the season given dew points in the lower to
middle 20s, calm winds and clear skies. Could see some upper teens
in the traditionally coldest locations of west Tennessee and
An unusual period of dry weather with seasonable temperatures for
most of the forecast period. Return southerly flow on Friday will
result in a rebound in temperature, before another cold front moves
through on Saturday. The front is expected to move through dry with
only a modest response in temperature.
The next chance for rainfall is late in the forecast period. The
GFS and European model (ecmwf) are not in very good agreement on the orientation of
the next shortwave. The GFS depicts a positively tilted trough,
while the European model (ecmwf) has split flow and a negatively tiled trough
ejecting into the middle of the country. Additionally, the European model (ecmwf) is
slower with the onset of any rainfall. The Canadian solution sides
more with the GFS and for now those solutions appear to make better
physical sense. For now the forecast will include a risk for
rainfall days 6/7.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period.
Winds will be variable at 5 knots or less for much of the forecast