Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
638 am CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 328 am CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
At 3am, temperatures are rather mild across the mid-south,
ranging from the lower 50s to near 60 degrees. Latest water vapor
satellite depicts a distinct shortwave trough traversing the
plains and upper Mississippi Valley. A couple of mesoconvective
systems are ongoing downstream of the main trough axis, with
cirrus clouds beginning to overspread the mid-south.
For today, expect high and mid level cloud cover to increase this
afternoon ahead of the approaching shortwave. Temperatures will be
similar to yesterday with highs around the 80 degree mark. The
main story this afternoon will be elevated fire danger as relative
humidity values drop to 30 percent and southerly winds increase to
around 10 miles per hour. Will add some enhanced wording to the fire weather
notification and hazardous weather outlook to address the
The aforementioned shortwave is expected to dig southeast across
the lower Mississippi Valley by late afternoon and enhance upper
level lift across the area. Widespread rain will be limited by
the lack of moisture through the column as precipitable water
values will barely exceed 1 inch. Nonetheless, the best chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be over northeast Arkansas and
north of the I-40 corridor. Unfortunately, the front is expected
to weaken as it moves south overnight, limiting the amount of rain
that will fall south of Interstate 40.
The main storm track will remain removed well to our north over
the next seven days, as a large ridge of high pressure builds over
the southern U.S. As a result, temperatures will continue to
remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs will generally be in
the upper 70s and lower 80s, with lows in the 50s. The next chance
of rain will not occur until late next week as the upper level
pattern appears to finally break down.
VFR cigs and vsbys will prevail through the period as the low
level airmass remains dry. Mid and high level clouds will increase
through the day and persist overnight. A stray shower will be
possible at kjbr tonight...but overall limited moisture should
Increasing southwesterly winds can be expected today between 8-10
kts before diminishing to 3 kts or less overnight.