Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1149 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

Update...

Updated for the 06z aviation discussion.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 948 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016/

Update...evening update.

Discussion...

Rain and thunderstorms are quickly coming to an end across the
midsouth...although a few storms are threatening to move in from
the south. We should see some relief from the heat tomorrow...as
well as an increase in showers and thunderstorms as moisture
levels increase. Severe thunderstorms are not expected...although
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall can be expected.

30

Previous discussion... /issued 638 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016/

An upper level ridge of high pressure has helped to keep hot and
humid conditions in place this afternoon across much of the mid
south. Heat index values have reached 105 degrees in several spots
across the advisory area this afternoon and plan to leave the heat
advisory in place through this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms have developed and will linger into this
evening with diminishing coverage. Warm and humid conditions will
prevail over the region through tonight.

By late tonight...a tropical disturbance lifting north from the
Gulf Coast will spread deep tropical moisture across southern
portions of the region. Weak lift associated with this feature
will combine with the moisture and lead to an increase in showers
and thunderstorms over southern portions of the area after
midnight.

Deep tropical moisture should overspread the entire mid south on
Wednesday as the weak tropical low lifts into the area. This
should provide sufficient lift and moisture to support numerous
showers and thunderstorms areawide. Deep moisture will remain in
place over the area as the weak tropical low merges with a slow
moving northern branch shortwave trough developing across the
Mississippi Valley. This upper level troughing will persist over
the region through the remainder of the week into the weekend.
Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the rest of this week. The tropical nature of the airmass
should support periods of heavy rainfall in slow moving storms
which will be capable of producing several inches of rain locally.
Localized flash flooding will be possible in areas where storms
train and/or move very slowly. Areawide...a generalized 1 to 3
inches can be expected. This should put a major Dent in areas
where abnormally dry conditions have developed. A Flash Flood
Watch may be needed across portions of the region. High
temperatures should remain below seasonal averages during this
period with above normal low temperatures expected.

The upper troughing persists through the weekend with continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should slowly
decrease through the weekend as the upper trough weakens.
Temperatures should slowly warm through next weekend as well.

Upper level ridging attempts to build eastward by early next week
with continued lowering chances for showers and thunderstorms
along with increasing temperatures.

Jlh

&&

Aviation...
06z taf cycle

VFR conditions will continue overnight and through most of
Wednesday before lower clouds move in Wednesday evening producing
MVFR ceilings. Some fog is possible overnight over northern
sections of the forecast area. Thunderstorms will start to develop
Wednesday morning and will continue through much of the afternoon
and evening hours. Winds will be mainly from the southeast at 5 to
10 knots for most of the forecast period.

Ars

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations