Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 230808
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
308 am CDT Tue may 23 2017
At 3 am CDT around the mid-south, showers are ongoing across
portions of north Mississippi and areas of west Tennessee nearest
the Tennessee River. The latest 500 mb analysis depicts an upper
ridge off the Atlantic Seaboard with an upper low centered over
Minnesota and associated trough extending southwestward through
the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. This places the local region
under southwest flow aloft, with several weak impulses embedded
in the flow responsible for the shower activity this morning.
Most of the shower activity will remain secluded to northeast
Mississippi through the morning hours as the shortwave departs to
the east. The next wave begins to move into the western areas this
afternoon, bringing at least a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms to the entire region, blanketed beneath cloudy
skies, and keeping temperatures in the 70s. A better chance for
showers and storms will exist overnight as the upper low migrates
to central Iowa and the trough axis centers over the local region
with overnight lows in the 50s.
The upper low begins to move over the region on Wednesday, with
the best chances for showers and thunderstorms being in the
morning as the trough axis migrates east out of the area. By the
afternoon the low becomes centered just over the region,
inhibiting highs from reaching the 70s in most locales.
A warming trend begins on Thursday as an upper ridge moves in
behind the departed upper low with dry conditions returning along
with sunshine. The ridge will dominate conditions locally through
the end of the week with plenty of sun and temperatures in the
70s on Thursday warming into the mid 80s for Friday.
A warm front surges north across the region in advance of the next
storm system by late Friday, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning for the Holiday weekend as the region
again becomes entrenched beneath southwest flow aloft. The best
chance for showers and storms currently looks to be on Sunday with
models dropping a front through the region. A few storms could be
strong to severe, with model soundings indicating abundant
instability, but have held off on including this wording in the
severe weather potential statement just yet as uncertainty still exists between models on
intensity and timing.
MVFR visibilities are possible late tonight towards Tuesday
morning at jbr/tup. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail
for much of the period except in thunderstorms. Rain showers
should end overnight at tup, and thunderstorms in the vicinity possible at sites Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. Light west/northwest winds expected through
much of the period.